Civil War in Syria

[Nhoj]

Syrian Republican Guards general Manaf Tlass, once a personal friend of Assad's, defects to Turkey along with his father.

The father is this guy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Tlass who was MoD from 1972 tell 2004.

[dead0man]

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Classy fellow!

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You can really taste the irony here.

[The Mikado]

Tlass and his father also have extensive (and somewhat bizarre) personal connections with prominent members of the French far-right (Syria used to be a French colony and the upper-class population is Francophone).  The Tlasses are one of the most important Sunni families in Syria and are hooked up with a lot of interesting people.

As Brown Moses Blog (which I think is the best starting place for analysis of Syria news the last few weeks) argues, "What this shows is that the 5 day visit to Syria I reported on yesterday wasn't just a one off event between the far right and Tlass family, but part of an ongoing relationship between the Tlass family and major figures in the French far right.  These links need to be exposed at a time when it's rumoured that Tlass will be promoted by the French to be part of any Syrian transitional government."

[The Mikado]

Meet Manaf Tlass:

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

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[The Mikado]

Manaf Tlass, middle, at play.  Pictured with Frédéric Chatillon, former head of these lovely people: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupe_Union_D%C3%A9fense  Also pictured is Dieudonné M'bala M'bala, famed for his French anti-Semitic stand-up comedy (as in, one of his videos is literally titled L’Antisémite).

Tlass really has the "bad boy" thing going.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Meet Manaf Tlass:

Looks like a dead ringer for Tony Curtis in this photo.

[The Mikado]

Mustafa Tlass (Fmr. Syrian Minister of Defense,Manaf's dad) apparently has a 3700 page (not a typo) memoir.   Not even Churchill had the stamina to lie about himself for 3700 pages.

[Frodo]

Interesting map.  Can't totally vouch for its accuracy, but given the situation, it seems reasonably correct and lines up well with Aleppo being the major battle ground.

If Aleppo falls to the rebels, that would be a game-changer by setting off a domino-effect in the country that could ultimately leave the Assad regime isolated in pockets centered around Damascus and along the coast. 

Are there any indications that Aleppo is on the brink? 

[Silent Hunter]

Red Cross states Syria is in civil war

[The Mikado]

Major turmoil in Damascus today, as FSA launches a surprise offensive in the Syrian capital.

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=DCSAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-16-17-28-58

[Nhoj]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/07/20127189355415804.html

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[dead0man]

Great news!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

CBS This Morning, stated that it wasn't a suicide bomber, but was instead an explosion of previously planted explosives.

[The Mikado]

Lots going on today. Many rumors, difficult to tell what's actually happening, but this is a kind of Tet Offensive.  Strike way behind enemy lines, massive infiltration of the enemy army suddenly becomes apparent, destroy enemy morale...

Huge defections today.  If even half the stories of defections today are accurate, Assad's regime is leaking like a sieve.  At this rate, pretty soon Assad will be down to just his fellow Alawites.

Confusion as to whether the attack was a suicide bomb or a previously-planted bomb, we likely won't know the truth for a long time.

Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah gave a speech expressing solidarity with Assad's regime...since Syria is one of Hezbollah's two backers, along with Iran, Assad's regime collapsing would have devastating effects on Hezbollah.  Might Hezbollah, in desperation, launch a coup in Lebanon?

[Mr. Morden]

One of the rumors is that the defense minister and deputy were killed by someone on the inside (possibly one of their own security guards), because the thinking is that it would have taken someone on the inside to get that close to them.

[The Mikado]

One of the rumors is that the defense minister and deputy were killed by someone on the inside (possibly one of their own security guards), because the thinking is that it would have taken someone on the inside to get that close to them.

I don't see how it could be otherwise.  It has inside job written all over it.

Question of the day: does Assad A. take his chances in Damascus, B. retreat to Lattakia and prepare to continue the fight on friendly ground, or C. take the next flight to Moscow and call it quits?

[Dereich]

One of the rumors is that the defense minister and deputy were killed by someone on the inside (possibly one of their own security guards), because the thinking is that it would have taken someone on the inside to get that close to them.

I don't see how it could be otherwise.  It has inside job written all over it.

Question of the day: does Assad A. take his chances in Damascus, B. retreat to Lattakia and prepare to continue the fight on friendly ground, or C. take the next flight to Moscow and call it quits?

I doubt he leaves Damascus. Any authority he still has rests on his government being the legitimate government of Syria. The moment he leaves the capital the stream of defections becomes a flood. I doubt he changes policy now, all he has to do is soldier on, slowly culling the opposition with aid from the Russians. The status quo isn't a killer for him yet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, quite shocking news. I didn't think the rebels would be able to inflict such harms to the regime. Does that indicate the tides are turning ? I'd like to think so, but I fear the civil war is far from being over...

[The Mikado]

http://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/graphsandstat/evolution-syria%E2%80%99s-opposition

[© tweed]

who should we support?

[Vosem]

who should we support?

The rebels, certainly. These figures (to me) attract much more sympathy than the Libyan rebels, and we intervened militarily to support those.

[© tweed]

who should we support?

The rebels, certainly. These figures (to me) attract much more sympathy than the Libyan rebels, and we intervened militarily to support those.

yes, problem is the latter fact.  you have a mob on one hand and the germ of yet another neoliberal state on the other.  quite a theoretical bind

[they don't love you like i love you]

Nice reminder to Assad: http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/07/18/227047.html

Good follow-up to a day that had the killing of several of his inner circle.

[Frodo]

who should we support?

The rebels, certainly. These figures (to me) attract much more sympathy than the Libyan rebels, and we intervened militarily to support those.

I tentatively agree, although at this point I think the rebels should start to get serious about uniting and organizing themselves into a plausible alternative government now that it finally looks as if Bashar al-Assad's regime might be beginning to crumble.  Before today, I can understand why they didn't feel the urgency but since the lifespan of the regime is now being measured in weeks -not months- they need to quit procrastinating and get on to it.  Make it easier for the international community (and the United States) to lend its support to their cause.