Civil War in Syria

[SPC]

What do you mean?  That they don't have Chem and Bio weapons? (they certainly do) or that they wouldn't use them in this situation?...but then why have them?

Has this been confirmed by international inspectors, or do they have them in the same sense that Saddam Hussein "had" them? (in a desperate bluff to thwart another Iranian invasion)

I suppose it's possible, I seriously doubt it though.  Of course neither of us have any skin in the game.  Those that do should take the threat seriously though....no?  I'm guessing you wouldn't care if some of it fell into the hands of the Hezzys, but I'm sure those living in Tel Aviv and Beirut do though.

Of course I would not support intervention regardless of if Syria is being honest. I just don't want a self-preservation measure to be construed as a casus belli as it was for another embattled dictator 9 years ago.

[Silent Hunter]

I'm reminded of this epic quote from Baghdad Bob:

"It has been rumored that we have fired scud missiles into Kuwait. I am here now to tell you, we do not have any scud missiles and I don't know why they were fired into Kuwait."

Weren't most of those missiles not Scuds anyway?

[dead0man]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/302261/report-rebels-responsible-houla-massacre-john-rosenthal

Have any mainstream news outlets picked this story up?  Because I have looked at the Washington Post and New York Times, and neither is carrying it.  Nor is Reuters.  Must be a non-conspiratorial reason why they haven't.  Perhaps the respectable publications doubt this story's veracity as I do. 

No, because mainstream media is a bunch of pigdog imperialists.  The only reliable sources are RT and Syrian state television.

Yeah, about that.

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It seems they (the media) were right the first time.

[The Mikado]

Regime describes battle in Aleppo as "Mother of All Battles" as Regime simultaneously struggles to regain control of Damascus.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Regime describes battle in Aleppo as "Mother of All Battles" as Regime simultaneously struggles to regain control of Damascus.

They're seriously quoting Saddam circa 1990?

[The Mikado]

Regime describes battle in Aleppo as "Mother of All Battles" as Regime simultaneously struggles to regain control of Damascus.

They're seriously quoting Saddam circa 1990?

I think it's a reference to the original Battle of al-Qadisiyyah, and that that name is sort of a cultural touchstone that both Assad and Saddam drew on independently, not a reference to Saddam.  I could be wrong, though.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Regime describes battle in Aleppo as "Mother of All Battles" as Regime simultaneously struggles to regain control of Damascus.

I suddenly feel better about the rebels' chances of taking Aleppo and overthrowing the regime.

[Silent Hunter]

Regime describes battle in Aleppo as "Mother of All Battles" as Regime simultaneously struggles to regain control of Damascus.

They're seriously quoting Saddam circa 1990?

I think it's a reference to the original Battle of al-Qadisiyyah, and that that name is sort of a cultural touchstone that both Assad and Saddam drew on independently, not a reference to Saddam.  I could be wrong, though.

Yes, that sounds right, although WaPo also notes Old Testament references.

Still, bad precedent...

[they don't love you like i love you]

Turkey arms the rebels with SAMs now: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/31/us-usa-syria-missiles-idUSBRE86U1T920120731

[The Mikado]

Major misstep on the FSA's part as they execute major Regime figure in Aleppo Zaino Berri.  Berri was the head of the 5,000+ member Berri clan, and the clan has pledged vengeance on the FSA, lending their weapons and support to the Regime.

[Frodo]

Kofi Annan has just called it quits. 

[dead0man]

Iran’s Hizbullah sends more troops to help Assad storm Aleppo, fight Sunnis

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Meanwhile, Iran TV: 48 Iranians kidnapped in Syria

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[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Meanwhile, Iran TV: 48 Iranians kidnapped in Syria

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I have to wonder if this is a false flag operation intended to justify sending in Iranian "security personnel".

[dead0man]

Maybe, but I don't like to jump to the false flag conclusion without a bit of proof, even if it is a lying, sh**tty state that would totally do something like that.

..and there is already more than a few Iranians fighting there, and that's not counting the Hezzys.

On that subject, it's probably good in the long run for Lebanon that the most experienced fighters are leaving their home to go die in Syria.  Maybe when all the sh**t settles, all the Xtians will leave Syria, settle in Lebanon and bring their numbers back to their historical rates.

...of course that could likely lead to another civil war in that country, which wouldn't be good for anybody (except for those selling old military gear).

[SPC]

On that subject, it's probably good in the long run for Lebanon that the most experienced fighters are leaving their home to go die in Syria.  Maybe when all the sh**t settles, all the Xtians will leave Syria, settle in Lebanon and bring their numbers back to their historical rates.

I can't believe you are openly advocating ethnic cleansing of Syrian Christians. I thought that was merely an unstated assumption.

Aside from the obvious moral obstacle, do you not see any unintended consequences from such an action? Is it possible that the Christian refugees might look slightly more favorably toward the Shiites that protected them from religious persecution versus the West that backed Sunni extremists that drove them out of their homeland of thousands of years?

[dead0man]

Perhaps I didn't use my words very good there.  I'm certainly not advocating ethnic cleansing of anybody.

[dead0man]

The FSA is now saying that the 48 Iranian "hostages" are actually Revolutionary Guards.  link

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In the same article, it mentions that Syria's first astronaut has left the regime, visited the rebels and then went to Turkey.

[Frodo]

Found a nifty little map showing the distribution of the sectarian groups within Syria, as well as parts of surrounding countries, including Turkey and all of Lebanon:

[The Mikado]

I wish these maps wouldn't confuse ethnicity and religion like that re: Kurds.

[bgwah]

Why does it show Kurds in Syria but not Turkey or Iraq?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Laziness probably.

Kurds are predominately Sunni (except for those that belong to that weird offshoot religion whose creation story sounds like the background plot of an anime and that Muslims accuse of being Satan worshipers...I don't think any of those are in Syria though, almost all are in Iraq) so Sunni on the map really means "Sunni Arab".

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why does it show Kurds in Syria but not Turkey or Iraq?

In the case of Turkey, I don't think they keep official statistics on the "mountain Turks".  It's only recently that Turkish governments have even begin to admit that the Kurds might be something other than Turks using a local dialect.

[SPC]

I didn't realize that Christians actually constituted a plurality in any part of Syria; I just assumed they were an urban minority. Based on the map, the Christians might be more fortunate than I thought in that the areas in which they are predominant would most likely be absorbed into the Alawite rump state.

[Frodo]

More defections today, this time including the Prime Minister as well as other government officials.

I didn't realize that Christians actually constituted a plurality in any part of Syria; I just assumed they were an urban minority. Based on the map, the Christians might be more fortunate than I thought in that the areas in which they are predominant would most likely be absorbed into the Alawite rump state.

If the Alawites (and the Christians) elect to become part of Lebanon, the government there is going to want to consider renaming itself 'Phoenicia', considering just how much of the historical territory of ancient Phoenicia an extended Lebanon will cover:

[SPC]

More defections today, this time including the Prime Minister as well as other government officials.

I didn't realize that Christians actually constituted a plurality in any part of Syria; I just assumed they were an urban minority. Based on the map, the Christians might be more fortunate than I thought in that the areas in which they are predominant would most likely be absorbed into the Alawite rump state.

If the Alawites (and the Christians) elect to become part of Lebanon, the government there is going to want to consider renaming itself 'Phoenicia', considering just how much of the historical territory of ancient Phoenicia an extended Lebanon will cover:

Looks like Ralph Peters was eerily precognitive