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Author Topic: Civil War in Syria  (Read 132829 times)
Benj
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« Reply #250 on: November 12, 2012, 11:14:21 pm »
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The Israeli official statement didn't treat it as a provocation, they said something along the lines that we understand it was an accident and that's why we fired a warning shot.


Obviously. At the same time, they said something to the effect of "but, if you hit a school with a missile, you're done". The question is whether Assad takes them up on the challenge.

(As far as Israeli support being the kiss of death... Not so convinced. The rebels have the sole support of the Sunni establishment and Arab popular sentiment at this point. It's very hard to see them deciding Assad is better just because Israel joins the rebels, though they would have mixed feelings about Israel's intervention, of course. OTOH, it might be a significant place for Israel to temporarily mend fences with many Sunnis while pursuing its feud with Iran. Just a thought.)
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« Reply #251 on: November 12, 2012, 11:43:09 pm »
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Obviously. At the same time, they said something to the effect of "but, if you hit a school with a missile, you're done". The question is whether Assad takes them up on the challenge.
Methinks Assad is merely testing Israel's response, and Israel has no choice but to make a small retaliation.

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(As far as Israeli support being the kiss of death... Not so convinced. The rebels have the sole support of the Sunni establishment and Arab popular sentiment at this point. It's very hard to see them deciding Assad is better just because Israel joins the rebels, though they would have mixed feelings about Israel's intervention, of course. OTOH, it might be a significant place for Israel to temporarily mend fences with many Sunnis while pursuing its feud with Iran. Just a thought.)
You underestimate the amount of hatred ordinary Arabs hold for Israel. Many rank-and-file rebels are Islamists who have chafed under Assad's crackdowns (see Hamah in 1982) and accuse Assad of being too soft on Israel. Meanwhile Assad's propaganda accuses the rebels of being supported by Zionists. Neither are true of course, but Israel openly supporting the rebels ain't gonna happen.

Or maybe Israel will openly support the rebels to turn the Islamists and foreign Jihadis against the rebel leadership, enabling Assad to claw his way back to control. But that's entering cloud cuckoo land.
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Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
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« Reply #252 on: November 13, 2012, 01:39:21 pm »
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Good news!

Hollande just held a big press conference on its general politics.

During this he said that France officially recognized the new Syrian National Coalition as the only legitimate representative of the country, as if it was the new official govt of the country then.

He then said that now that this step has been reached, the question of delivering weapons to rebels can be asked again.

Which would mean that rebels would have at least some French ground-air missiles in their hands in, I think, at worst more or less one month, which is when the next summit of the Friends of Syria will be held, which could be the occasion to take an official decision coordinated with eventual other countries.

That's the first Western country to take this decision, if it does like for Libya then UK would follow in the next minutes, and the US tomorrow. Grin

That might become an as important turn than what happened on the 17th of March 2011 for Libya. Which wouldn't mean that the end of war would necessarily be coming soon, but that'd become a serious help, if only for the Syrian sky.

Yay! Vive la France!
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« Reply #253 on: November 15, 2012, 11:43:34 am »
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So, far less hurry than for Libya to help Syria, once again...

I heard nothing from UK, and the Nobel Peace Prize 2008 didn't make sound his 1st news conference of his new mandate as positively sounding than the French one by refusing to recognize the new SNC like the new official authority of Syria, and also continues to refuse to deliver weapons, speaking about the risk that it falls in bad hands. Maybe he was speaking of the 1000-2000 Jihadists that are currently 'enjoying' the fact that nobody is helping Syrian rebels against Assad forces to play a more and more visible role in this conflict, helped by journalists who enjoy to air the black flags waving all over Syria, and all of this even if that's 1.000-2.000 out of how many? About 60.000 rebel forces at least, yeah, there is a clear Jihadist risk in Syria...

But whatever, thankfully there is always France to keep the flag up, this morning Fabius announced on a big radio that he gonna asked EU to lift the embargo on defensive weapons for Syria. If only to protect the 'free territories'.

After all, recognizing the new SNC as the new authority is also recognizing Assad regime as an occupying force in Syria. I like this paradigm.

On the ground Assad regime is de facto losing all authorities then in some places, since Turkey had said they would accept about 100.000 refugees on their territory, it reached 120.000 now, and people continue to come. Then Turkey is only accepted those who are in very bad shape, and is letting the other ones on the other side of the border, making humanitarian camps within Syria, and while Assad forces can still pretend they bomb some freed cities against terrorists, I'd be quite surprised they dare bombing a humanitarian camp, which makes of them some kinda definitely freed areas of Syria. Problem in those places though being that humanitarian conditions can be pretty bad.

Speaking about Turkey, they became the 8th country after France and the 6 countries of the GCC to officially recognize the new SNC as the new authority. But apparently France remains the only to make official steps to deliver weapons. Qatar would quickly follow I guess.

Also, François Hollande will officially receive Abou Qhatyb, the president of the new SNC in Paris on Saturday. Hmm, when you come to think about it UK moved after the Libyans came in Paris too, and Americans after France really showed they were willing to do something, then see you this week-end?

Whatever what those other powers can do as long as there is at least a few countries to help anyhow, because, the more you let Syrians alone, outside of the 'side effect' that the more you add to the today's figure of 39.000 dead people, the more you help the bunch of Jihadists that are in Syria and overall the more you give power to a possibly totally military authority in Syria in the future if there is nothing to balance the Free Syrian Army.

The new SNC seems to be an actual chance to not let Syria fall in some totally military hands now and in the future and to also have more chances to have a control on some weapons, and might be the last possible way to say to Syrians that they are not totally abandoned by the Human Community, because otherwise, if they succeed to freed themselves after...what? 100.000? 200.000? More?...dead people with everybody knowing, watching, having the means to help but doing nothing, do you just imagine how the ambiance would be...cold? And to what we would look like...

But thankfully there is France!



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It would be good the US sometimes remember about their origins...
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« Reply #254 on: November 23, 2012, 03:07:07 am »
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The rebels are gaining ground:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/21/gunning_for_damascus
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« Reply #255 on: November 23, 2012, 12:04:41 pm »
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Good if so.

Meanwhile it's still really laborious in the camp of those who could help...

At first it was amusing, to one more time, see UK beginning to move itself to recognize the new opposition a few hours after Fabius officially spoke about weapons, but then it took them several days to finally laboriously officially recognize the only Syrian representation, becoming the 9th country to do that, but in the end refused to deliver weapons (kudos for the coherence...).

And so far I didn't hear about new countries doing it...

And apparently EU still didn't give an answer to Fabius request to lift EU blockade on weapons...

In between France took a new initiative though, when Hollande received the chief of the new opposition Moaz al-Khatib (sorry for the way I wrote his name last time). And then they created the 1st embassy of the new Syrian representation, in Paris. The ambassador has an interesting profile, he looks about 50 years old, and overall comes from a big Alawit family of Lataquiah, he says most of the coming work of the new SNC will be to seek for the biggest international recognition they can, and to unite the FSA notably in order to have the best possible control on weapons. He seems to be rather dynamic and constructive.

Today, Qatar also proposed to NSC to have an embassy in Doha.

Hopefully they won't have to wait more than the next gathering of the Friends of Syria, in about 2 weeks, so have some concrete help...

Ah well, not sure if that can be much helpful, but lately US and France have given a positive response to Turkey request to put NATO Patriot missiles on its border.
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« Reply #256 on: November 23, 2012, 11:21:12 pm »
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Here's more detail on the rebel gains:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/22/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20121122

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Syrian rebels captured an army base in an eastern oil province on Thursday, further weakening President Bashar al-Assad's control in the strategic region bordering Iraq.

The capture of the artillery base on the outskirts of Mayadeen, a town on the Euphrates river near some of Syria's main oilfields, followed rebel takeovers of military installations in the north and centre of the country this week.

Recent rebel momentum shows the increasing potency of the mainly Sunni Muslim fighters trying to topple Assad, who belongs to the Alawite minority linked to Shi'ite Islam. But insurgents have often had to retreat quickly after making advances to avoid strikes by the president's air force.

"The Mayadeen military base fell at 8.30 a.m. (0630 GMT)," Abu Laila, an official in the Military Revolutionary Council in the province, told Reuters. He said 44 rebel fighters had been killed in the operation to capture the base.

"The whole countryside, from the Iraqi border and along the Euphrates to the city of Deir al-Zor, is now under rebel control," he said.
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« Reply #257 on: November 23, 2012, 11:59:52 pm »
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Let's hope this is a real turning point in the fight and not another "end of the Assad regime in sight" moment.
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« Reply #258 on: November 24, 2012, 12:05:20 am »
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Let's hope this is a real turning point in the fight and not another "end of the Assad regime in sight" moment.

I think Assad is toast in the long run, but I don't read these gains as meaning that the regime's collapse is imminent.  There's still a long way to go.  And even once Assad is dislodged from Damascus (whenever that may be), I'm not optimistic about the fighting ending anytime soon after that.  Since there's a much stronger sectarian character to this war than there was in the Libyan civil war, it seems likely that the Sunnis and Alawites would keep fighting each other for many years to come, a la Iraq in the mid/late-2000s.
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« Reply #259 on: November 24, 2012, 03:25:20 pm »
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Let's hope this is a real turning point in the fight and not another "end of the Assad regime in sight" moment.

I think Assad is toast in the long run, but I don't read these gains as meaning that the regime's collapse is imminent.  There's still a long way to go.  And even once Assad is dislodged from Damascus (whenever that may be), I'm not optimistic about the fighting ending anytime soon after that.  Since there's a much stronger sectarian character to this war than there was in the Libyan civil war, it seems likely that the Sunnis and Alawites would keep fighting each other for many years to come, a la Iraq in the mid/late-2000s.

Where's Petreus when we need him? Tongue
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« Reply #260 on: November 25, 2012, 08:48:55 pm »
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I've been analyzing this a bit and I agree with Mr. Morden. The regime is toast in the long run because as time passes, it is losing material and support faster than it can replenish them, while the rebels are slowly but steadily gaining strength. At some point the balance will tip over from the regime's side to the rebels.

In many ways, there are similarities to the Chinese civil war. The regime has much stronger conventional superiority, but it can't use this superiority to finally crush the rebels. The rebels have much more popular support, particularly among the peasants in the countryside, whereas the regime can only effectively control the cities. Hence the unpopular regime will be trapped in urban "islands" that can be cut off and eventually attacked and snuffed out one by one by the rebels, just as in the Chinese civil war. Also, just as in the Chinese civil war, the rebels' strength grows day by day through defections, and capturing the regimes' weapons. Ironically, at some point I believe that all of the artillery and armor Assad possess makes it more likely that he will not survive, because this weaponry can be used against him. If only small arms existed in Syria, then Assad would be able to keep up stalemate indefinitely.

If Assad has 50 helicopters and 100 warplanes, if he loses 1 helicopter and 2 warplanes a week, after a year he has no air force any more. I do not believe the Russians are going to ship him any more jets or helicopters because they Russians are starting to realize he cannot pay for them. Finally, it appears that Jordan has signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia, whereas the latter has agreed to intervene in Jordan in the event of an uprising there, in return Jordan allows Saudi weapons to pass through to the rebels.

The regime's tactical superiority is also a strategic disadvantage, because when their mortars and bombs fall on civilian areas, or their troops commit atrocities (which they will disproportionately do simply as a consequence of their military superiority) it only serves to further alienate the local population. Since, for instance, low-flying aircraft can be shot down with small arms, the regime's jets have to fly higher on bombing runs to take advantage of the rebels' lack of anti-aircraft, but this decreases their accuracy and effectiveness. Hence, while the regime needs to fight this war politically as well as militarily, but when it tries to leverage its military advantage it comes at a political cost.

It is losing the war politically because the peasants and migrant poor know that the regime no longer has the economic means to buy them off. The regime also has to pay its troops, and it has to be careful about how it deploys its Sunni troops. The regime's most valuable supporters were the urban Sunni upper class/business class, but because those that remain in Syria are going to be the top targets of both sides, including kidnappings, most of them have either smartly left the country or been neutralized.

When Assad falls, I doubt it'll be the end of the fighting. The Kurds and the Sunnis will start fighting, or the radical Islamist and non-radical Islamists will start fighting. What's left of the Alawites will be in the mix, too.

The longer this goes on, the better for the radical Islamists, Al Qaeda, etc.

One of the biggest risks after Assad falls is a genocide of the Alawites.
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« Reply #261 on: November 25, 2012, 10:02:53 pm »
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The longer this goes on, the better for the radical Islamists, Al Qaeda, etc.

One of the biggest risks after Assad falls is a genocide of the Alawites.

Are you making an argument for NATO intervention here?   
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« Reply #262 on: November 25, 2012, 10:07:28 pm »
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The longer this goes on, the better for the radical Islamists, Al Qaeda, etc.

One of the biggest risks after Assad falls is a genocide of the Alawites.

Are you making an argument for NATO intervention here?    

No, I'm just saying what I think is true. For one thing, there's no support in the West to bear the costs of such an intervention. Secondly, if NATO intervenes and the victors do commit some atrocities or turn out not to be sweet candy, the West could end up looking complicit.

There's also some parallels to the Lebanese civil war.
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« Reply #263 on: November 25, 2012, 11:50:38 pm »
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Also, Beet, how significant would it be for the region if Bashar al-Assad's regime were to crumble?  And would it push Iran to be genuinely cooperative with the United States with regard to its nuclear weapons facilities, now that they would be deprived of their only ally in the region? 
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« Reply #264 on: November 26, 2012, 11:37:48 am »
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Doubtful, but it would definitely be a strategic coup for Saudi Arabia and potentially the US and Israel.
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« Reply #265 on: November 26, 2012, 02:39:40 pm »
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Current map of control: red is rebel, green is government, blue is disputed:



The rebels have secured basically all of Syria north of Aleppo, but are having a hell of a time pushing further south.
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« Reply #266 on: November 26, 2012, 02:42:32 pm »
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It's funny that Iran's only ally in the region is ran by a heretical sect that would be relentlessly persecuted in Iran if they existed in any large number.

The Alawites have also become my least favorite branch of Islam (assuming you even consider them Muslims at all of course) due to their staunch support of Assad.
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« Reply #267 on: November 26, 2012, 08:10:43 pm »
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It's funny that Iran's only ally in the region is ran by a heretical sect that would be relentlessly persecuted in Iran if they existed in any large number.

The Alawites have also become my least favorite branch of Islam (assuming you even consider them Muslims at all of course) due to their staunch support of Assad.

Your propensity to judge religious communities as single blocs is pathetic.
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« Reply #268 on: November 26, 2012, 08:24:13 pm »
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Obviously not every single Alawite does. But the leaders and "community" in general do. Look what happens to Alawites that stand against Assad: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/24/world/middleeast/samar-yazbek-branded-betrayer-for-embracing-syria-rebels.html?pagewanted=all

Also I've read that of all the military and government officials that have deserted Assad, not a single one is Alawite.
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« Reply #269 on: November 27, 2012, 05:34:44 am »
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It's funny that Iran's only ally in the region is ran by a heretical sect that would be relentlessly persecuted in Iran if they existed in any large number.

The Alawites have also become my least favorite branch of Islam (assuming you even consider them Muslims at all of course) due to their staunch support of Assad.
Only know them from Turkey, there its a very sympathetic, antiauthoritarian and liberal version of Islam with no imams, layman participation in services presided over by laymen prayerleaders which can also be women.
In Syria they simply don't have any choice but to support the regime. The threat from regime sympathisers and the risk of getting massacred if Assad loses is simply too big.
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« Reply #270 on: November 29, 2012, 11:33:42 am »
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Latest quite hot news:

This morning lot of Revolutionary Committees announced that most places where rebellion have strong were totally cut of communications, Internet and cells, notably Damas. They said they ffeared a regime was preparing something nasty.

Very short time ago, France24 just announced that for the 1st time since the beginning of the conflict, Internet and cell networks are now being cut in the country as a whole.

And right now, there is a breaking saying that a major offensive of the army took place on Damas' airport road.

Maybe they didn't enjoy to see the use of the ground-air missiles (the French ones??), and maybe they also wanted to enjoy the fact that all cams are on New-York and Ramallah today.
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« Reply #271 on: November 29, 2012, 02:23:28 pm »
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Also I've read that of all the military and government officials that have deserted Assad, not a single one is Alawite.

Yeah, the new ambassador of Syria, belonging to a big Alawite family of Lattaquiah might be a fake one...

And I haven't watched the composition of the new NSC closely, but if they have an Alawite ambassador, they might have a further Alawite representation.

Not to speak about this:

In Syria they simply don't have any choice but to support the regime. The threat from regime sympathisers and the risk of getting massacred if Assad loses is simply too big.

...indeed.

The longer this goes on, the better for the radical Islamists, Al Qaeda, etc.

One of the biggest risks after Assad falls is a genocide of the Alawites.

Are you making an argument for NATO intervention here?    
For one thing, there's no support in the West to bear the costs of such an intervention.

In the Anglo world you mean?

http://www.sondages-en-france.fr/sondages/Actualit%C3%A9/Politique%20%C3%A9trang%C3%A8re

While the French, who have the biggest military means in the West outside of the US, and who can play a role to move some other EU countries to constitute a force wouldn't be too much annoyed by Russia position here, in term of popular opinion, if you believe polls, French regularly supported helping the opposition, till that poll of the 12/08/2012, which happened when it really turned into a total war there, that gave 51% supporting a French intervention.

'The West', belongs to the 1990s geopolitically, where Mitterand saw nothing on the 1st instant of the 1990s, and who had a rather odd positioning toward Balkanic wars, while 1989 has been US/'The West' victory over USSR/'The-East', and then the leaders against the nasty Serbs, till Bill Clinton becoming a total hero in Kosovo.

France began to woke up in 1995 with Chirac, slowly, and the US who peaked with Kosovo as being the total geopolitical leader and kept this image till 2001. Somalia 1993 was a 1st bad sign though.

Just for a little digression about 'The West'. There is not 'The West' in Palestine today for the most recent example...

About this notion of 'genocide'.

This belongs to XXth century imo, which for our sake we have left.

During a long time, till this August, this has mainly been a protest, non-violent, non anti-Alawites, it was exactly in line with the other Arab Revolutions, a call for Freedom and Justice of which the main the point is the ousting of their dictatorship, and in a 1st time of the 1st big symbol of it, the dictator and his family (since both are often, always?, associated in Arab dictatorships), or in wider sense to his 'clan', and this not in the cultural sense of the word so far, but in the very concrete sense, all the guys at the top of regime screwing the country for their sake.

Outside of the fact that actual genocides, which isn't a slight word, would more and more belong to the past, and the death of all people who have been taken into that might have at least been useful to this.

And outside of the fact that Arab Revolutions belong to a positive dynamic overall.

You can also add that in between there's been an International Justice being set, that several persons have been condemned for stuffs like that, that some are regularly caught, and then a lot of guys around the world pay far more attention before doing nasty stuffs, and anyways it made this less easy to them. But it's not as if the US were aware about all of this...

And you can also the fact that media are everywhere now. In 1980 Assad father massacred 20.000 people, no images, nothing, just some memories of some people in Hama.

Now, will it be wonderful after the fall of the regime?

Indeed not.

Has it been in Libya? No.
Has it been in France after Libération in 1945? No.

Outside of the war which is going on since this summer, given the atrocities committed against Syrian protesters during the months of protests by regime official and maybe overall unofficial forces against civilian protesters, while it must be condemned, you shouldn't be surprised at all to see indeed some nasty retaliations. That could be still more messy precisely due to the fact that the regime used a lot some civilian militias to practice atrocities. But so it goes in this case as it can go anywhere, there doesn't need an ethnic factor for it to happen, the word genocide has a sense, and I think the automatic confessional/ethnic fights in Arab societies are overall a Western intellectual construction based on lazy historical schemes, of which the Lebanese War might have been the last blow. In Iraq, it isn't Shiah vs. Sunnis, it's some Shiah militias vs. Al Qaeda. And lately it became Al Qaeda vs. Shiah populations. Civilian populations are totally taken in hostage there by this, what a pity, and kudos to the US to making them regret Saddam, because that's what you can often hear there when journalists do reports and documentaries...

Speaking about genocide should have some sense.

(...oho...the original post was...once again longer than 11.000 characters, kudos if you're still reading Grin...to be continued right bellow then...)

« Last Edit: November 29, 2012, 02:36:01 pm by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »Logged

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« Reply #272 on: November 29, 2012, 02:24:17 pm »
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International Justice, knowledge of other cultures, what a pity that the biggest diplomatic and military power became the most cut of the rest of the World...

Crazy how the US would still be stuck in the XXth century paradigm, both diplomatically and militarily, and even in the WW2 paradigm militarily, both in term of strategy and equipment (what the hell do you wanna do with all your aircraft-carriers? destroy China by carpet bombing?) and Obama's influence on that is shy so far, and the fact that it wouldn't be easy at all for him to change it would show how it is deeply seeded in the US geopolitical schemes.

But hey, with Romney we were in WW1, so I guess being stuck in WW2 remains a progress...

Gosh, I always reach the same conclusion:

Thankfully France's here!

And in a less hexagonal conclusions:

Thankfully France could one day brings it's diplomatic power, biggest diplomatic power since...Louis XIII at least till 1918, and that's notably this way the  French language became very international, and it remains the biggest network of embassies around the world after the US, and not very far iirc, it has its UN seat, and its military power, biggest Western army after the US, independent on all equipments, or being allied with other EU countries for the few non-independent ones (some helicopters, non fighting jets, satellites for what I remember) given it apparently has the 3rd military industry in the world (lol, even Russians buy big boats to us...), its nuke button, all of this could be a good start to build a European Defense!

A biggest defense and a biggest diplomacy which could be quite useful in cases like Syria maybe then, and anyhow to have a sane strong force around the world, what the UN isn't able to be, what the US can't be and could less and less be.

Because, unlike the US, the European countries have deeply enough shrunk geopolitical imperialism, may the price that populations taken in the colonial empires paid has at least been useful to this (even France is seriously shrinking its relationship to Françafrique so it's safe!).

Thankfully we're leaving an epoch where geopolitical schemes are deeply changing, it's all opened!

Ah, and, about Al Qaeda, yeah, the most it lasts, the most it helps AQ guys. But one more time, it's about 2.000 guys (for the most pessimistic observers), and a lot foreigners are in it, out of 20 millions of Syrians, and at least 60.000 rebel forces. The danger of Al Qaeda is...relative there.

The biggest danger about them would be they join AQ Iraq once the regime is fallen, in order to 'continue the Jihad!', and so they participate to destabilize Iraq.

That being said, the move behind all of this is a decreasing of Iran in the region.

1st in Syria, I don't need to develop I think.

2nd in Lebanon, Hezbollah would become more and more isolated, technically and politically.

3rd in Iraq, if the fall of Assad regime effectively leads to a destabilization of Iraq, 'lol', come to think about it, both Assad clan/regime elites and AQ fighters could flee to the Iraqi Shiah administration once the regime falls, because Tehran might not be fond to welcome some of the most murderous people in human history on their ground given how it could be inflammable for the Iranian youth...

So it might lead to a totally f**ked up situation in Iraq.

This while Qatar is enlarging is 'Califate', succeeded to already take Gaza, which the brilliant Israeli intervention might have still helped, because, while Al Qassam brigades are showing this...



Says: Thank you Iran

...in Gaza streets, in the end of the day, Israel succeeds to give a big geopolitical importance to Morsi, who is funded by Qatar, and by having destroyed all those infrastructures it will makes Qatari funds still more welcome in Gaza. Kudos Israel, always brilliant, and the US always here to brilliantly obey to them.

Qatar who is then becoming the 1st geopolitical power of the Peninsula, and even of the Gulf diplomatically, which makes KSA influence to be more and more marginal.

A major crisis in Iraq that'd clearly be Shiahs vs Sunnis could incite KSA to take back a lead, especially since Sunnis could appear as a persecuted minority, still more especially when you consider the growing political crisis in Kuwait, which is becoming the biggest political crisis there with Bahrain, and we know how KSA handled Bahrain...



...which can be seen as one more fail of Iran in the region, since they call for defending Shiahs all over the world, to which you could add the Saudi repressions of Shiahs in KSA, Iran didn't move here either, geopolitically it's one more fail for them...

And this while KSA is slowly going to softer and softer social policies and more and more home public spendings since to appease the possibilities of protests since the beginning of Arab Revolutions, some less radical policies coupled to this decrease of geopolitical influence in the Arab world, while still having this status of 'US puppet' could give still more strength and fuel to extremists in this country, who are always present if you believe observers.

You could also had the fact that protests in Jordan are being bigger and bigger and clearly led by Jordanian MBs, which would be of the same shade than Egyptian ones, and who could also be part of the rising 'Qatar Caliphate'...

So many things that makes that KSA really is at a crossroad and that might not accept to be continued to be marginalized, and thus that could try to take benefit of this loss of the Iranian influence all over the region to push further its advantage, and Iraq might eventually become the spot of this.

So, in short, all of this goes toward far and far less Iran all over. Which also confirms the way I use to see Iran as being in the last years of USSR...

And which also are so many reasons not to strike Iran!

Doing it could bring totally hazardous crazy consequences...

And thankfully the 2008 peace Nobel Prize had firm enough words going in this sense here...



...to counter this...



So the US might not be totally doomed!

But anyways, one more time, US 1777, Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Syria 2012...



(Hollande announcing he officially recognizes the NSC as the new Syrian authority)

Thankfully France is here!



(...France, Europe, US, the whole Middle-East, wow seems I went a bit beyond Syria here...

...read everything?? Kudos if so! Grin...)



Not other news of what's going on in Damas...
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14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Lief 🐋
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« Reply #273 on: November 29, 2012, 02:44:11 pm »
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Syria has completely disconnected from the internet. Things are about to get much, much worse.
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fuck nazis
Blue3
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« Reply #274 on: November 29, 2012, 10:05:58 pm »
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Assad must know how vulnerable he is. Mubarak and Gadhafi both cut off the Internet early on, actually surprised Assad took this long. Definitely smells like weakness.
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