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Author Topic: Civil War in Syria  (Read 132701 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #300 on: December 08, 2012, 10:48:51 pm »
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How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

When you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
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« Reply #301 on: December 09, 2012, 06:02:32 pm »
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How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

When you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

How is releasing an antidote anything other than excellent solution to the problem of somebody using chemical weapons on folks?
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Professor Nathan. A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights. Can you really trust him?

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« Reply #302 on: December 09, 2012, 06:07:59 pm »
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How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

When you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

How is releasing an antidote anything other than excellent solution to the problem of somebody using chemical weapons on folks?

As London Man pointed out, that might be feasible in a Hollywood blockbuster, but not in real life.
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« Reply #303 on: December 09, 2012, 06:13:33 pm »
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How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

When you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

How is releasing an antidote anything other than excellent solution to the problem of somebody using chemical weapons on folks?

As London Man pointed out, that might be feasible in a Hollywood blockbuster, but not in real life.

Well, obviously I mean if and when possible. SPC may, I suppose (and hope), have been criticizing whatever thought process led BRTD to think that particular process is feasible, but it's SPC. He may very well have a grave moral opposition to administering antidotes to citizens of other countries in violation of those countries' self-determination for all I know.
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« Reply #304 on: December 09, 2012, 07:04:56 pm »
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How about dropping "bombs" that are just spray neutralizing agents into the air?

When you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

How is releasing an antidote anything other than excellent solution to the problem of somebody using chemical weapons on folks?

As London Man pointed out, that might be feasible in a Hollywood blockbuster, but not in real life.

Well, obviously I mean if and when possible. SPC may, I suppose (and hope), have been criticizing whatever thought process led BRTD to think that particular process is feasible, but it's SPC. He may very well have a grave moral opposition to administering antidotes to citizens of other countries in violation of those countries' self-determination for all I know.

Obviously giving Syrians antidotes creates perverse market distortions. Better to force them to find and purchase their own antidotes.
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« Reply #305 on: December 09, 2012, 11:56:48 pm »
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With nerve agents, deploying antidotes is risky.  If you give yourself the antidote because you think you've come in contact with one, but you haven't, then you can potentially kill yourself that way as well.
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« Reply #306 on: December 10, 2012, 02:42:43 am »
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With nerve agents, deploying antidotes is risky.  If you give yourself the antidote because you think you've come in contact with one, but you haven't, then you can potentially kill yourself that way as well.

...that would in fact be a very good reason to have second thoughts about doing as BRTD suggested, were it possible. I stand at least partially corrected. Thank you, Ernest.
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« Reply #307 on: December 10, 2012, 12:04:32 pm »
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I was thinking of a certain Spec Ops level of Call of Duty 3 with that comment there.
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« Reply #308 on: December 10, 2012, 06:20:20 pm »
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I was thinking of a certain Spec Ops level of Call of Duty 3 with that comment there.

I see.
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Professor Nathan. A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights. Can you really trust him?

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #309 on: December 10, 2012, 06:21:30 pm »
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Grin
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« Reply #310 on: December 11, 2012, 07:30:11 pm »
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Obama: US now recognizes opposition as ‘legitimate representative’ of Syrian people

By Associated Press, Published: December 10 | Updated: Tuesday, December 11, 6:39 PM

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama declared Syria’s main opposition group the sole “legitimate representative” of its country’s people Tuesday, deeming the move “a big step” in the international diplomatic efforts to end Syrian President Bashar Assad’s embattled regime.

Obama said the newly formed Syrian Opposition Council “is now inclusive enough” to be granted the elevated status, which paves the way for the greater U.S. support for the organization.

“Obviously, with that recognition comes responsibilities,” Obama said in an interview Tuesday with ABC News. “To make sure that they organize themselves effectively, that they are representative of all the parties, that they commit themselves to a political transition that respects women’s rights and minority rights.”

Recognition of the council as the sole representative of Syria’s diverse population brings the U.S. in line with Britain, France and several of America’s Arab allies, which took the same step shortly after the body was created at a meeting of opposition representatives in Qatar last month.
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« Reply #311 on: December 11, 2012, 07:52:27 pm »
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Now for God's sake, start sending them some weapons instead of keeping doing speeches.
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« Reply #312 on: December 13, 2012, 01:00:55 am »
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If Assad's using SCUDs he's probably feeling cornered.
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« Reply #313 on: December 13, 2012, 05:03:02 am »
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I think in all likelihood we are already sending the Syrian rebels weapons and other supplies in secret. Probably via Saudi and other Gulf middle men.
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« Reply #314 on: December 13, 2012, 03:06:41 pm »
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Russia says the rebels might win:

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-syrian-rebels-might-win-car-bomb-111631714.html



NATO says Assad regime on the brink of collapse:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/13/syria-regime-collapse_n_2292440.html
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« Reply #315 on: December 13, 2012, 06:36:46 pm »
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I hope this isn't another false dawn.  Tongue
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« Reply #316 on: December 13, 2012, 06:41:47 pm »
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I have an inexplicable soft spot for Asma al-Assad. It's going to be horrible to see her and her children dragged around the streets. Syria's such a shame. Up until this whole thing started I really did think there was a chance at reform and opening up, that Assad could prove to a progressive moderniser, which his background certainly suggested. Now that's all a dead dream, along with thousands of Syrians.
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The world is becoming globalized, but cosmopolitanism is being hijacked by the Davos Man. What choice is left besides nationalism? The thought is terrifying, to be honest.

I just hope Trump doesn't turn into some kind of Berlusconi-esque Teflon man.
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« Reply #317 on: December 13, 2012, 06:59:02 pm »
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I have an inexplicable soft spot for Asma al-Assad. It's going to be horrible to see her and her children dragged around the streets. Syria's such a shame. Up until this whole thing started I really did think there was a chance at reform and opening up, that Assad could prove to a progressive moderniser, which his background certainly suggested. Now that's all a dead dream, along with thousands of Syrians.
We in the West tend to overestimate how much one man can go in and change an already established regime. I think thats true of both North Korea and Syria. There are already a network of officers, cronies and other stakeholders around the throne that have a vested interest in the status quo and without their support the heir to the family dictatorship can change very little.
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« Reply #318 on: December 13, 2012, 07:31:37 pm »
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I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.
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« Reply #319 on: December 13, 2012, 07:57:24 pm »
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I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.
Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #320 on: December 13, 2012, 08:05:17 pm »
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I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.
Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.

I am pretty sure that a large part of the population on both sides would have agreed to avoid the bloodshed if a compromise option had been on the table. Instead, Assad thought he could crush the rebellion and acted accordingly.
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« Reply #321 on: December 13, 2012, 08:49:44 pm »
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I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.
Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.

That's exactly what the leaders in Algeria and Morocco did. It worked okay for them. (Granted, I think we're assuming after protests start but before armed conflict began--you may be taking this to be after armed conflict had already started, in which case I agree.)
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« Reply #322 on: December 13, 2012, 09:27:08 pm »
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I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.
Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.

I am pretty sure that a large part of the population on both sides would have agreed to avoid the bloodshed if a compromise option had been on the table. Instead, Assad thought he could crush the rebellion and acted accordingly.

As Alexis de Tocqueville pointed out, a dictatorial regime is at its absolute weakest and most likely to be overthrown when it is attempting to reform.  Easing restrictions on people makes them more confident and more likely to speak up about the other problems they face, and make demands that the process go faster.  The easiest options are either conceding defeat and going into exile or going maximum hardline like Assad actually did: reform is something of a fool's errand that makes it more, not less, likely for a ruler to end up hanging from a telephone pole.
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« Reply #323 on: December 13, 2012, 10:17:59 pm »
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I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.
Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.

I am pretty sure that a large part of the population on both sides would have agreed to avoid the bloodshed if a compromise option had been on the table. Instead, Assad thought he could crush the rebellion and acted accordingly.

As Alexis de Tocqueville pointed out, a dictatorial regime is at its absolute weakest and most likely to be overthrown when it is attempting to reform.  Easing restrictions on people makes them more confident and more likely to speak up about the other problems they face, and make demands that the process go faster.  The easiest options are either conceding defeat and going into exile or going maximum hardline like Assad actually did: reform is something of a fool's errand that makes it more, not less, likely for a ruler to end up hanging from a telephone pole.

There is a lot of truth in this idea, but I don't think it's good to generalize too much. Negotiated political reforms might sometimes appease tensions and allow the regime to stabilize for a while (even though it might still eventually fall).
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« Reply #324 on: December 13, 2012, 11:54:46 pm »
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I hope this isn't another false dawn.  Tongue
Syria is Russia's closest ally, and Russia is Syria's strongest ally.

We have only gone into DEFCON-3 three times in our history, and once was because the Soviet Union was threatening nuclear war with the United States to defend its ally Syria, back in the '73 Yom Kippur War. (the other two times were 9/11 and the Cuban Missile Crisis)

Syria is also the only country, outside of the former USSR, where Russia still has a military base.

Russia still supports Assad... but admits he's losing, and they're planning evacuations for their citizens.

If Russia says the rebels may win, and is planning like the end might be near... then the end is probably near. Wish we had a timetable though on when "soon" is, but revolutions don't have timetables.
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