Civil War in Syria

[Cory]

I think the Syrian Loyalists have promised reward to Hezbollah for their assistance in the war. In the article posted by Starwatcher it says that Hezbollah personnel are starting to man Syrian tanks and armored vehicles. I think Hezbollah is gaining the troops experience in using these weapons and will eventually incorporate tanks into their "army". We have to remember that Hezbollah is practically a nation-state with a standing army at this point.

Also keep in mind that Qusair is a key supply route for weapons and equipment from Syrian into Lebanon. Hezbollah is as a result "forced" to intervene to hold Qusair for the Loyalists to keep the route open.

[Person Man]

Assad promises to attack Israel, if they bomb a site in Syria again

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/2013530194217674256.html

and what would happen then?  Do you think that Israel would invade Syria?

Unless the entire Israeli government have been replaced with complete morons, it won't happen. First the Israel army have in the last 4 decades only worked as a occupation force.
Also the Israeli military have build for fast knock out, not long term military action, so the best they can hope for is weakening the government, rather than taking them out.
Even in Lebanon it worked more like a traditional occupation force. Israels other problem is that everybody hate them in Syria, the rebels moreso than the government.

They could of course do airstrikes on anything going in or out and if attacked, can defend. It appears to be a complicated situation for them.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

North Korean military officers are now on the ground in Syria, helping Assad

I think we can now say everyone is involved there.

This isn't a war anymore, it's a [inks]ing freakshow.

[Mr. Morden]

North Korean military officers are now on the ground in Syria, helping Assad

I think we can now say everyone is involved there.

This isn't a war anymore, it's a [inks]ing freakshow.

The next step is for some Minuteman volunteers to go to Damascus to protect the US border from incursions by Syrian refugees.

[Person Man]

North Korean military officers are now on the ground in Syria, helping Assad

I think we can now say everyone is involved there.

This isn't a war anymore, it's a [inks]ing freakshow.

The next step is for some Minuteman volunteers to go to Damascus to protect the US border from incursions by Syrian refugees.

...or the French trying to re-establish the mandate.

[bgwah]

Qusair finally fell to government forces after two weeks of fighting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22778310

Bad news for the rebels. Without foreign intervention, it's looking like they will lose.

[Beet]

Qusair finally fell to government forces after two weeks of fighting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22778310

Bad news for the rebels. Without foreign intervention, it's looking like they will lose.

Nah, they still hold Aleppo, most of the entire north and eastern provinces.

[dead0man]

Indeed.  It (Qusair) is much more important to Assad's boys than it was to the FSA.  It was good to deny it from them, but it wasn't a good place (or time) for a Waterloo.

[Mr. Morden]

Qusair finally fell to government forces after two weeks of fighting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22778310

Bad news for the rebels. Without foreign intervention, it's looking like they will lose.

I don't think Assad can actually "win" in the sense that he'll never have enough forces to hold the whole country together at once.  But a stalemate that goes on for years and years is certainly possible.  How long did the Lebanese Civil War last?  15 years?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So it seems that Assad still has some European friends: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/11/bnp-nick-griffin-syria-assad

[Blue3]

U.S. government confirms multiple uses of chemical weapons by the Assad government, pledges to act

[Frodo]

It seems we are going to provide 'direct military support' to the Syrian rebels:

U.S., citing use of chemical weapons by Syria, to provide direct military support to rebels

By Karen DeYoung and Anne Gearan, Updated: Thursday, June 13, 9:17 PM

The United States has concluded that the Syrian government used chemical weapons in its fight against opposition forces, and President Obama has authorized direct U.S. military support to the rebels, the White House said Thursday.

“The president has said that the use of chemical weapons would change his calculus, and it has,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser. Rhodes said U.S. intelligence had determined with “high certainty” that Syrian government forces have “used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year.”

Intelligence agencies estimate that 100 to 150 people have died as a result of chemical weapons use, he said.

Rhodes did not detail what he called the expanded military support, but it is expected initially to consist of light arms and ammunition. He said the shipments would be “responsive to the needs” expressed by the rebel command.

Obama has “not made any decision” to pursue a military option such as a no-fly zone and has ruled out the deployment of U.S. ground troops, Rhodes said.

[Beet]

Apparently the chemical weapons were only part of the reason for a decision that was coming anyway. According to Politico,

“The decision was ultimately driven by the discovery Assad used [chemical weapons] but there were a number of other factors in place that were also important,” conceded an administration official with direct knowledge of the deliberations.

“Would we have made [the determination Assad had breached the red line] even if we didn’t have the evidence? Probably.”

This seems more related to the promotion of Susan Rice and John Kerry than anything else. Apparently, Tom Donilon and Chuck Hagel were not as enthusiastic as Rice.

[bgwah]

I wonder how far Obama will go with this.

Arming Sunni Islamists to beat Russia in a proxy war? Why does that sound familiar...

[Old Man Svensson]

Assad promises to attack Israel, if they bomb a site in Syria again

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/2013530194217674256.html

and what would happen then?  Do you think that Israel would invade Syria?

Israel would do what they nearly did in the Six Day War and torch the place to ash. We in the West seriously underestimate Israel as a ruthless military force nowadays.

[Lumine]

And just like that Israel and the US are really going to increase their popularity in the Middle East...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Qusair finally fell to government forces after two weeks of fighting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22778310

Bad news for the rebels. Without foreign intervention, it's looking like they will lose.

I don't think Assad can actually "win" in the sense that he'll never have enough forces to hold the whole country together at once.  But a stalemate that goes on for years and years is certainly possible.  How long did the Lebanese Civil War last?  15 years?

That's nothing compared to the Colombian civil war.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Apparently the chemical weapons were only part of the reason for a decision that was coming anyway. According to Politico,

“The decision was ultimately driven by the discovery Assad used [chemical weapons] but there were a number of other factors in place that were also important,” conceded an administration official with direct knowledge of the deliberations.

“Would we have made [the determination Assad had breached the red line] even if we didn’t have the evidence? Probably.”

This seems more related to the promotion of Susan Rice and John Kerry than anything else. Apparently, Tom Donilon and Chuck Hagel were not as enthusiastic as Rice.

Oh goodie, another black female Stanford alum as National Security Advisor who is a warmonger.

[Blue3]

I think the bigger factors were how Hezbollah and Iran are now investing everything in Assad quite openly, and Russia trying to plays us for fools.

[Peeperkorn]

A weaker, gayer Assad would be great for the region, as he will recognize Golan Heights as Israel's territory and he will not give arms to Iraq's terrorists.

[dead0man]

Iran to send 4000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards to Syria-link goes to Google search

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[Tender Branson]

Iran to send 4000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards to Syria-link goes to Google search

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Good that we are getting out of there right now ...

[politicus]

Wonder how Ankara is going to react to actually having Iranian troops in Syria. Iran having bases in the Mediterranean is one of the "worst case scenarios" the Turks have. Of course they will likely wait and see how it all develops, but its still a provocation.

[Tender Branson]

Here is a more alarming version of this:

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[politicus]

An attack on Israel would be a major mistake at this point. With Hezbollah and Iranian support they have a good chance of defeating the rebels. Opening up another front will jeopardize this.