Civil War in Syria

[dead0man]

Is it sad I trust Russia more than our country?

Yes, quite.  Understandable though...sort of.  I mean, there is little reason to trust what western govts say when it comes to this sort of thing....but there seems to be even less reason to trust what Putin and his cronies say.

[dead0man]

and like many have feared/expected, it's spilling over into Lebanon now.  link

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So, the big question for the west in the next 5 years is....do we side with the hardline Shia/Iranians/Assad/Hezzies or with the hardline Sunnies/Salafis/Wahabists or just let them kill each other (with tens of thousands of innocent Muslims killed in the "cross fire")?  Or is there (hopefully) some third option I'm not seeing.

[Silent Hunter]

Actually the French played the main role in wiping out Gaddafi's air force, and that part of the operation went incredibly easy.

Also, for all the stuff that occurred later, the actual invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq went off with very few hitches.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Actually the French played the main role in wiping out Gaddafi's air force, and that part of the operation went incredibly easy.

Also, for all the stuff that occurred later, the actual invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq went off with very few hitches.

Wars don't end with the initial invasion tho.  Even if the west limits itself to being the Free Syrian Air Force, much as we did in Libya, Syria will be both costlier and longer than Libya, especially if we also get drawn into the fight against the Syrian Islamic Front.

[Silent Hunter]

MSF says it has treated 3500 with symptoms consistent with that of chemical weapon exposure

[Cory]

Secretary Kerry's statement seems to indicate that it is a matter of when, not if the USA intervenes militarily.

[Beet]

I suppose Obama isn't going to ask Congress for a formal declaration of war?

[Blue3]

That hasn't happened since World War II.


I highly doubt it will involve any invasion. It will just be missile attacks from air and sea, and some more covert special forces operations. As it should have been 2 years ago. Assad and his regime must go.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

What we did in Libya won't work. We'd eventually knock out the Syrian Army, but they're in FAR better shape than Gaddaffi's forces were, most of the fighting is in concentrated urban areas, and the country is far more evenly divided than Libya was. There would certainly be NATO casualties, and probably even more FSA casualties (for the record, the FSA is not too much better than Assad) than there would have been had we stayed out.

And of course, the West (and Russia/the USSR and China, let's not leave anyone out) has yet to atone for all the atrocities it has committed against civilians since the end of World War II, so I'm a bit annoyed by Kerry's righteous tone here.

[Mr. Morden]

From reading the media coverage of the likely US military response to Assad's use of chemical weapons....

Sounds like this'll be something like Operation Desert Fox in 1998, when the US and UK bombed Iraq for four days, in retaliation for Saddam Hussein's lack of cooperation with weapons inspectors.  A limited operation of a few days designed to "punish" the target regime, not to dislodge it from power.  No indication that the US or NATO is going to become the air force of the Syrian rebels, a la what happened in Libya.

[Eraserhead]

Here we go again...

[AkSaber]

And of course, the West (and Russia/the USSR and China, let's not leave anyone out) has yet to atone for all the atrocities it has committed against civilians since the end of World War II, so I'm a bit annoyed by Kerry's righteous tone here.

Yeah. When Syria allegedly uses chemical weapons it's the crime of the century.

But when our leaders let depleted uranium be used against completely innocent and defenseless targets... well they got in our way.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So it seems this time it's the good one. I'd be cautious though since everything has been so disappointing from the beginning in Syria...

Fabius said it can't remain unanswered.
Le Drian, the French Ministry of Defense is in the Gulf.
The Charles de Gaulle, the French aircraft carrier is on the way to Syria.

According to Olivier Ravanello, maybe the only worthy journalist remaining on itélé, the French diplomacy would have told them that something could happen before Monday.

Hollande gonna make a speech in the coming hours.

It has to be confirmed but it's just been told on itélé that Russia would have already said they wouldn't retaliate if some strikes were made in Syria (which would confirm that Russia really only always is what it shows, some pure...

...gonflette (bubbled muscles).

I hardly imagine Russia engaging into retaliations, at least military ones.

Turkey said it didn't care of UN veto, and would open some of its air bases.

So, so far we would have:

France
UK
Turkey
US

So far the most likely would seem something more or less like Libya, the US using tomahawks to destroy some military facilities and French and UK planes in the air to disable facilities too but also maybe striking offensive moving troops, eventually a total NFZ, but this seems less sure. NATO would once again be the logistic base (sight...).

In any case, if there effectively is a coalition, the mission will have to be clearly and loudly defined, and hopefully the official opposition will also be clearly associated to this and will also finally speak with a clear and united voice. Still something more or less like Lybia then.

The earlier this conflict will be sorted out, the better it will be for the whole region, we really don't need a black flag in the Mediterranean sea, and so far that's what we were helping by doing nothing on the long term.

My biggest worry for that whole region remains always the same for a while now, that totally screwed up piece of land decades after decades, Iraq. At all levels, sociologically, economically, politically, religiously, and yeah, notably through depleted uranium, and phosphore in Fallujah, on the health and ecological level. It has the potential to turn in something worse than it's never been in the coming years, and having Syria as a permanent training ground thanks to an ever going civil war was really not helping. Helping the Syrian cause would make that less young Syrians would join the black flags and have war as only perspective for the future. Offering them the perspective of a true solid help not depending on the black or green flag with a sword would make that only true international Jihadists would remain once the regime is moved, that is a few thousands of people, and Iraq and the whole region around really doesn't need more than that to know a deeper destabilization.

All of this being said, one more time, it's Syria, so it still have the potential to be once again freaking disappointing, from all parts.

In any case, still according to Olivier Ravanello, nothing would begin as long as UN observers are there, but hey, UN just said it suspended its mission there for safety reasons.

If something actually happens I wonder who would dare openly make the 1st step...

Barack Obama for the 1st time daring openly opening something?
The UK stopping to be the ever followers of either French or Americans??
Or, once again, France...

Well France has an historical responsiblity in having set this kinda Alawit regime in Syria, and  notably in the building of its military culture, it would have a kind of historical legitimacy/responsibility, outside of the fact that it also happens in an area where it is, at a lot of levels, directly concerned, the hottest spot on Earth nowadays, the beautiful Mediterranean Sea.

Hopefully this association of languages will be stopped to be associated to something shameful the soonest possible...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So for those who would have missed it like me, apparently there's a new thread.

[Joe Republic]

[robbin_hunting]

and like many have feared/expected, it's spilling over into Lebanon now. 

Lebanon is a sad story of never ending violence... Hizbullah has weapons, so do Palestinian Refugees, Syrian Refugees, Other Lebanese Political Parties... Lebanon is a war zone, never been an independent and peaceful country ever before.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Assad and his regime must go.

Cool. Do you have a strategy for what would be next?

[LastVoter]

Assad and his regime must go.

Cool. Do you have a strategy for what would be next?

That's not the point.... Just turn it into a company town for an oil giant.

[TNF]

That hasn't happened since World War II.


I highly doubt it will involve any invasion. It will just be missile attacks from air and sea, and some more covert special forces operations. As it should have been 2 years ago. Assad and his regime must go.

Do tell us more about this secret strategy you've been let in on.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

and like many have feared/expected, it's spilling over into Lebanon now. 

Lebanon is a sad story of never ending violence... Hizbullah has weapons, so do Palestinian Refugees, Syrian Refugees, Other Lebanese Political Parties... Lebanon is a war zone, never been an independent and peaceful country ever before.

Hmm, pardon?

I guess people living there could explain you a kind of difference between what happened between 1975 and 1990 there, and what happened since then.

Some violence in Lebanon? It already happened and would continue to happen here and there at times, and indeed the worse it be in Syria, the worse it could turn in Lebanon.

Something as harsh as they knew in the past?

Really, you never know, but if they wanted an actual new civil war, it's a long time it would have begun I'd say...

People aren't machines who make civil wars for the sake of matching their reputations, I suppose at least.

[robbin_hunting]

and like many have feared/expected, it's spilling over into Lebanon now. 

Lebanon is a sad story of never ending violence... Hizbullah has weapons, so do Palestinian Refugees, Syrian Refugees, Other Lebanese Political Parties... Lebanon is a war zone, never been an independent and peaceful country ever before.

Hmm, pardon?

I guess people living there could explain you a kind of difference between what happened between 1975 and 1990 there, and what happened since then.

Some violence in Lebanon? It already happened and would continue to happen here and there at times, and indeed the worse it be in Syria, the worse it could turn in Lebanon.

Something as harsh as they knew in the past?

Really, you never know, but if they wanted an actual new civil war, it's a long time it would have begun I'd say...

People aren't machines who make civil wars for the sake of matching their reputations, I suppose at least.

The news are too focused on Syria, so the echos of the Syrian Civil war in Lebanon are almost unheard internationally. The reality is that the whole country is hanging on a thread, there are Kidnappings, assassinations, bombs, high crime, visibly armed militias here and there... I don't know what is preventing Lebanon from slipping into a new civil war, but it certainly isn't "if they wanted an actual new civil war, it's a long time it would have begun", the people who carry the weapons and the civilians aren't the ones to call a civil war... I don't know who calls it, but it certainly not the common people...

[Frodo]

There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place. 

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical. 

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

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Well, we avoided intervening for about two years now, and your fears have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[MasterJedi]

There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place. 

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical. 

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

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Well, we avoided intervening for about two years now, and your fears have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Didn't you hear, nonintervention is the in thing. All problems are solved by doing nothing (so says people on the left and right) until you actually do nothing and the situation gets worse.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place. 

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical. 

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

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Well, we avoided intervening for about two years now, and your fears have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Would intervention two years have necessarily produced a better outcome?

[Frodo]

There is no oil in Syria.

Perhaps not, but getting rid of the Assad regime would further isolate the mullahs of Iran and leave terrorist groups like Hezbollah hanging in the wind and vulnerable to Lebanon (now freed of Syrian domination) and Israel.  I am sure both states would be more than happy to put Hezbollah in its place.  

That is my interest in the matter -geopolitical.  

Personally I am terrified of the prospect of a bosnia-type situation emerging. Supporting any one side would likely just lead to ethnic conflict on an even wider scale. Also I am not so sure that toppling the Syrian gov. would be as easy as Libya (and that obviously took a good amount of time).

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Well, we avoided intervening for about two years now, and your fears have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Would intervention two years have necessarily produced a better outcome?

Yes, for the following reasons:

1. Fewer civilians would be killed or displaced -the refugee crisis would be minimal in relation to what it is now.
2. With the relatively quick overthrow of the regime, Al Qaeda/al Nusra elements would still be inconsequential
3. We would have an outsized influence not only on whatever government is formed, but also over the Syrian people grateful for our assistance
4. Iran would be deprived of a crucial ally, leaving it weaker in the region, and thus more vulnerable to American pressure with regard to its nuclear ambitions.  Perhaps it might even effect regime change there.  
5. Hezbollah would be left high and dry, thus contributing to Israel's security on its northern frontier.
6. We would not be facing the prospect of Syria becoming another post-Cold War Yugoslavia.
7. Deprived of its client-state (and foothold in the region), Russia would lose whatever residual influence it has left in the Middle East.

All this is assuming the Libyan-style intervention in question had been designed to aid the rebels in overthrowing the Assad regime, as opposed to merely making a damned statement of our displeasure like President Obama is urging...