Civil War in Syria
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Author Topic: Civil War in Syria  (Read 206231 times)
Simfan34
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« Reply #750 on: February 06, 2016, 03:05:23 PM »

These "Turkmens" aren't actually Turkmens, right?
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ingemann
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« Reply #751 on: February 06, 2016, 03:13:49 PM »

These "Turkmens" aren't actually Turkmens, right?

Turkmen in this context are just Turks who dwell in post-Ottoman Arab territories. They're not more related than the average Anatolian Turk with the central Asian Turkmens.

As for how many of them there exists it's rather unclear, the only difference between them and the average Syrian Sunni Arab are their patrilineal ancestry, they share religion and both they and their Sunni Arab neighbours are likely both bilingual in Arab and Turkish (and often trilingual in Kurdish too).
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #752 on: February 06, 2016, 04:58:04 PM »

Sad news for Syria, one more...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/02/06/aniseh-makhlouf-mother-syrian-president-bashar-assad-dies/79929336/



4 down, 1 away, then 2 left, on the, well, left

Might be a turn in Syria War, would eventually give an emotion to the 2 remaining brothers...



Unless the actual turn being that Russia recently discovered Go game, there's been such a fuss about that lately, then, after wanting to be chess world champions during Cold War, they might have decided to be Go world champions in their new trolling 'Cold War' now.

Map of the game, Syria, decisive point to win, Alep, game partner, the 2 guys on the left of the pic, those managed to have a good enough control of that game lately.



Besieged locality of Yarmuk, southern Damas, UN pic, for one pic that can be viewed, haven't seen others, but radio descriptions have been enough...

They're becoming as good at it as they were at chess, and are apparently winning again...

Apparently fights on the ground already began in Alep between regime and rebels, 120 already reported dead on both sides according to France24, and numbers of people fleeing that sick Go game oscilates between 20 and 70 thousands so far.



Personally, I'd be in IS, I might be like:

Both Russians are putting lots of forces on Alep to [definitely?] win the war on the [sane] rebels.

We're being more and more screwed on the East by heavier Western bombings.

Wouldn't it be time to try to gather a lot of our forces and so cool American equipment to try to crack Damas down...?


Thankfully I'm not in IS.

No matter they still control a 'state', they already managed to spread to the world, and international money from some bored Saudis would still be available if needed...

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palandio
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« Reply #753 on: February 07, 2016, 06:33:04 AM »

I just read an analysis by Fabrice Balanche for the Washington Institute, fitting together with what ingemann wrote. He describes the recent advances of the pro-Assad forces in Greater Aleppo (with a map) and how they fit into the bigger strategy (with a map). He also argues that Russia has been quite successful in accomplishing its short-term strategic goals, differently from what many Western observers had said before.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-battle-of-aleppo-is-the-center-of-the-syrian-chessboard

Probably Benwah is right and "The battle of Aleppo is the center of the Syrian Go board" is a better title.

With regards to "If I were IS I would try to attack Damascus": The so-called IS has already been weakened by Western and Russian airstrikes and Iraqi, Kurdish and Syrian ground fighting. I doubt that they have the military capacity to launch an open assault on the Syrian capital. Both regime and rebels have at least 20.000 fighters engaged in Greater Damascus (probably more), but it's rarely in the news because it's not chess but some extreme variation of Go (see the picture of Yarmuk you posted). What the IS has already tried and what it is still trying is the infiltration and takeover of besieged rebel-dominated suburbs of Damascus. The future of IS is to spread like cancer, the biggest tumors will be cut.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #754 on: February 07, 2016, 08:14:48 AM »

What I'm worried about is the Mosul Dam. That wasn't stable even at the best of times, and given that I assume "dam maintenance" isn't high on anybody's priorities at the moment, it's basically a ticking time bomb (especially if Daesh decide to go out with a bang)
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ingemann
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« Reply #755 on: February 08, 2016, 02:55:16 PM »

What I'm worried about is the Mosul Dam. That wasn't stable even at the best of times, and given that I assume "dam maintenance" isn't high on anybody's priorities at the moment, it's basically a ticking time bomb (especially if Daesh decide to go out with a bang)

Mosul Dam are to my knowledge under the control of the Kurds and have been since 2014. So I don't think you need to worry over it.


Probably Benwah is right and "The battle of Aleppo is the center of the Syrian Go board" is a better title.

With regards to "If I were IS I would try to attack Damascus": The so-called IS has already been weakened by Western and Russian airstrikes and Iraqi, Kurdish and Syrian ground fighting. I doubt that they have the military capacity to launch an open assault on the Syrian capital. Both regime and rebels have at least 20.000 fighters engaged in Greater Damascus (probably more), but it's rarely in the news because it's not chess but some extreme variation of Go (see the picture of Yarmuk you posted). What the IS has already tried and what it is still trying is the infiltration and takeover of besieged rebel-dominated suburbs of Damascus. The future of IS is to spread like cancer, the biggest tumors will be cut.

I don't really think that ISIS are any major threat in this conflict. We focus on it because of its success in Iraq, but their success in Syria have been on secondary fronts, where it have focused on weaker and more disorganised rebel groups and besieged government enclaves. The moment they attacked the more well organised Kurds, they lost many of their best soldiers and they have been on retreat ever since.

The most important conflict area in Syria are around Aleppo, the moment the government have ended the rebels there, the rest of the conflict will just be a clean up and a potential agreement between the regime and the Kurds about autonome kurdish area. ISIS don't really matter, they control areas with little value to the regime or the Kurds, which is why they been ignored in favour of the rebels in the Syrian heartland.

Also a interesting fact the villages of Dael and Ibta in southern Syria have driven the local rebels out and raised the Syrian flag. The area have little importance, it's poor and populated by Sunnis, the rebel offensives in the area have been complete failures and the government have mostly ignored it, except for beating the the rebel offensives. But the fact that the local have tired of the rebels to the point, where they expel them and join the government, are interesting and could mean that we could see a complete collapse of the rebels in the area. 
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ingemann
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« Reply #756 on: February 08, 2016, 03:57:42 PM »

A interesting pre-war ethnic/religious map of Syria



http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/maps.shtml

There's also a map which also show population density of the different groups

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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #757 on: February 08, 2016, 04:51:07 PM »

I have also in my map folder few maps connected with countries also touched directly or indirectly by Syrian Civil War






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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #758 on: February 11, 2016, 10:45:44 AM »

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/war-isis-poland-join-fight-against-daesh-exchange-more-nato-troops-1543139


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Frodo
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« Reply #759 on: February 11, 2016, 07:38:20 PM »

U.S., Russia and other powers agree on ‘cessation of hostilities’ in Syria’s civil war

By Karen DeYoung
February 11 at 7:04 PM


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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #760 on: February 11, 2016, 07:49:45 PM »

This is at least the third time this exact same plan has been announced. I'll believe it when it actually happens. As far as I can tell, the parties have just agreed that the end goal will be a coalition government and a united front against ISIS. They still can't agree on specifics though.
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ingemann
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« Reply #761 on: February 12, 2016, 07:24:22 AM »

U.S., Russia and other powers agree on ‘cessation of hostilities’ in Syria’s civil war

By Karen DeYoung
February 11 at 7:04 PM


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Russia and Syria only agree to "cessation of hostilities" against groups which aren't international recognised as terrorists, which mean that they will continue to bomb ISIS, JAN  and several other groups, including several which are active around Aleppo.

Translation: this agreement are worth less than toilet paper.
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ingemann
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« Reply #762 on: February 21, 2016, 04:14:47 PM »

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/02/18/the-media-are-misleading-public-syria/8YB75otYirPzUCnlwaVtcK/story.html

A interesting pierce on the "siege of Aleppo"

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I have also found a piece from Washington Institute
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/ethnic-cleansing-threatens-syrias-unity

What makes its interesting is not so much the article (which I still recommend people read), but more the demographic graphs in the article.

As example they have quite different projection of the Syrian demography than the we usual see (the traditional are usual based on the last census in 1960)



But it also show the ethnic make up of the government controlled regions



and the percent of the population living in areas controlled by the different fractions.



Also in general news from Syria.

The government seems to keep the ceasefire with "FSA", while they attacking ISIS east of Aleppo.

The Kurds on the other hand are attacking first "FSA" and second ISIS east of Aleppo. ISIS seems in a state of near collapse on these fronts.

The Turks seems to have transported JAN (better known as Al Qaeda)troops from Idlib province (through Turkish territory) to the town of Azaz to defend it from YPG. 
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #763 on: February 22, 2016, 06:48:04 AM »

Kurds are attacking the FSA?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #764 on: February 22, 2016, 01:05:56 PM »


In Northern Aleppo they are allied with some part of opposition forces and they are not fighting against FSA but most often some minor Islamist guerrillas like Islamic Front or Jaysh al-Mujahedeen.
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ingemann
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« Reply #765 on: February 22, 2016, 03:31:51 PM »


In Northern Aleppo they are allied with some part of opposition forces and they are not fighting against FSA but most often some minor Islamist guerrillas like Islamic Front or Jaysh al-Mujahedeen.

kataak are mostly correct (the Kurds in Aleppo are fundamental a neighbourhood militias, who have tried to stay neutral, but de facto have been allied with the regime), but this is a little more complex. This isn't happening in the Kurdish enclave in Aleppo, but at the Afrin canton, and the term FSA are rather meaningless, the groups kataak mention are often include when people talk about FSA.

For some more context, we tend to see the Kurds as a unified whole, but even through the three original cantons (Afrin, Kobane and Jazira) was under PYD/YPG control, they had different local leaders and interest. Kobane and Jazira have more less united now with Jazira saving Kobane from ISIS.

But there was some important demographic difference. Kobane was religious homogene with the local Kurds being Sunnis, Jazira was more heterogene, but Sunni still dominated (especially as religious minorities was mostly non Kurdish). Afrin on the other hand are much more heterogene, with the population being a mix of Sunnis, Alevis (official Shia de facto a kind of Anatolian folk religion which mix Islam with Kurdish pre-Islamic paganism, Turkic shamanism and Christianity to my understanding) and Yedizi. This mean that Afrin from the start was more pro-regime than the other two cantons and much more hostile toward the Sunni Arab rebels (even Sunni Kurds tend to look down on Arabs, as the Kurds was used by the Ottomans to beat down Arabs when they became uppity). Afrin stayed mostly neutral but kept a good relationship with the government (Shia) enclaves on its eastern border, regime loyalist fleed into Afrin as other government base fell to the rebels early in the conflict.

But a few month ago FSA (IF and some Turkmen Islamist groups if I remember correctly) declared that if Afrin didn't give up several villages to them they would attack Afrin. The Kurds asked them to f**k off, and FSA attacked them. The result was that the Afrin Kurds conquered several villages from FSA (surprise). As the goverment cut of the rebels east of Afrin from the rest of rebels in Idlib. The Kurds stated a new offensive and have conquered the southern part of the strip, while Turkish artillary keep them from conquering the northern part. Instead they have continued into ISIS territory, where they have conquered several villages.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #766 on: February 22, 2016, 06:47:38 PM »


Now about 180 dead people in IS recent terror attacks in Homs (60) and Damas (120), biggest terror attack since the beginning of conflict.

So, yeah, being more and more militarily screwed on both sides, IS effectively focuses on Damas apparently, but they do it through what they can do the best, terror.

Those guys can't be militarily beaten.

Just like you couldn't win against AQ militarily, and the more the US went on it in the 2000s, the more AQ did spread around the world.

Happenning exactly the same for IS with a far bigger speed.

About the impact it can have on Syria, question would be on much some eventual harsh repeated terrorism can destabilize the Syrian regime.

The more they're hunting IS on the ground the more Damas walls would be in danger. I heard the regime army was on the gate of Raqqa, right?

And the more IS is wipped out from Syria and Iraq, the more they might want to 'discover new countries'...



Ah and, while we're at Homs, I've been surprised to hear that there were still people 60 there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5-xBFo85vQ
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Hnv1
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« Reply #767 on: February 25, 2016, 06:36:21 AM »

Turkish armoured units taking part in fighting against IS near Mosul\IRaw
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Frodo
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« Reply #768 on: March 10, 2016, 11:58:59 PM »

Discussions have begun on the probable de facto dismemberment of Syria, though the various countries being carved out of it will only be regarded as autonomous entities, and not formally independent.
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Frodo
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« Reply #769 on: March 27, 2016, 11:12:32 AM »

Palmyra has been liberated.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #770 on: March 27, 2016, 12:09:26 PM »


Ban Ki Moon saluting this, awful to have to thank Russia and Assad, isn't it?
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dead0man
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« Reply #771 on: March 30, 2016, 08:11:10 AM »

In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA - LA Times
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le sigh
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #772 on: March 31, 2016, 03:59:37 PM »

At one point you must just laugh, really, and I have to thank all those guys for this, and the 'le sigh' wasn't bad either.

Thanks all of you, you lighten my mood, I laughed good, really.

[/f**king French humour again maybe]

[/f**king Syrian humour though]

[/Americans aren't bad either]
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #773 on: April 04, 2016, 03:49:14 PM »

The relatively small but strategically important town of Al-Qaryatayn has been liberated: https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-liberates-quraytayn/

Sets the stage for the Syrian Army's huge coming push towards Deir ez-Zor.
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palandio
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« Reply #774 on: April 06, 2016, 04:28:59 AM »

The first cease-fire is now dead on the South Aleppo front and other fronts and seems to have been only a break in which both sides rearrange their artillery...
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