Civil War in Syria
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Author Topic: Civil War in Syria  (Read 206302 times)
ingemann
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« Reply #825 on: September 18, 2016, 01:50:05 PM »

Why is no one talking about this? This is a problem.

It's not a problem, in a few weeks this will be mostly forgotten.
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ingemann
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« Reply #826 on: September 18, 2016, 01:51:54 PM »

Let me get out the world's smallest violin...

Those 80+ troops are part of a force which defend several hundred thousands civilians from ISIS.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #827 on: September 18, 2016, 02:10:05 PM »

Let me get out the world's smallest violin...

Those 80+ troops are part of a force which defend several hundred thousands civilians from ISIS.

Who have killed just as many, and spend more time fighting the main people who actually fight ISIS than ISIS themselves.
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ingemann
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« Reply #828 on: September 18, 2016, 03:41:04 PM »

Let me get out the world's smallest violin...

Those 80+ troops are part of a force which defend several hundred thousands civilians from ISIS.

Who have killed just as many, and spend more time fighting the main people who actually fight ISIS than ISIS themselves.

These soldiers defend the Deir ez-Zor besieged (enclave). This is like celebrating the death of Russian soldier in St. Petersburg while the Germans besieged it, because Russian troops behaved badly on other fronts. Many of these soldiers are likely conscripts, and defend a city, those (Sunni) population wil be butchered in the thousands (because they belong to a tribe hostile to ISIS) if ISIS wins, while the soldiers will likely be tortured, raped and murdered if they're taken alive by ISIS.

So unless you're really into the snuff porn videos ISIS produce, this is potential a pretty horrible thing. Of course in a greater political context this city matters very little. Assad defend it to keep a stronghold in east Syria and because it would send a wrong signal, if he let a city loyal to the regime fall in ISIS hands.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #829 on: November 07, 2016, 07:47:30 AM »

So what's the deal with the Raqqa offensive?  Are the rebels going to knock out IS just so that they can in turn be knocked out by Assad?  Or is there some viable path forward for a Raqqa that is held by rebel groups in the long term (not IS or Assad)?
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palandio
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« Reply #830 on: November 07, 2016, 10:11:34 AM »

There is no such thing as the rebels.

There is ISIL, there are the SDF (which include the YPG) and there is a broad spectrum of other rebel groups with varying supporters and various degrees of islamism.

The current Raqqa offensive is an SDF offensive. Relations between the SDF and Assad are complicated at times, sometimes even hostile (e.g. Hasakah clashes), but there is cooperation, too (e.g. north of Aleppo). Hopefully Raqqa at some point will be part of a united federalized Syria through a diplomatic solution.
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Person Man
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« Reply #831 on: November 07, 2016, 10:23:00 AM »

This could actually work out. If the Kurds break the back of ISIS by taking Raqqa, that gives solidifies the Kurds and potential gives forces non-Baathists and Western interests a potential solid leg to stand on. It will probably fall through but the Kurds seem to be the type of people we that we can have a lot less guilt dealing through. The only problem of course is Turkey but from what I have seen, the Kurds seem to have more western values than the Turks or anyone else there.
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ingemann
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« Reply #832 on: November 08, 2016, 03:26:25 PM »

So what's the deal with the Raqqa offensive?  Are the rebels going to knock out IS just so that they can in turn be knocked out by Assad?  Or is there some viable path forward for a Raqqa that is held by rebel groups in the long term (not IS or Assad)?

No to all it.

The whole Raqqa offensive is a excuse for Turks to set up a territory in Syria, which will ensure the Kurds doesn't connect Afrin with the rest of Rojava. Unless it gives the Turks a excuse to attack the Kurds, they won't go after Raqqa.
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ingemann
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« Reply #833 on: November 08, 2016, 03:31:13 PM »

This could actually work out. If the Kurds break the back of ISIS by taking Raqqa, that gives solidifies the Kurds and potential gives forces non-Baathists and Western interests a potential solid leg to stand on. It will probably fall through but the Kurds seem to be the type of people we that we can have a lot less guilt dealing through. The only problem of course is Turkey but from what I have seen, the Kurds seem to have more western values than the Turks or anyone else there.

The Kurds don't want Raqqa, the only reason they made noises about was to keep their American sponsors happy, and outside some easy targets, the Kurds will likely avoid further expansion. The reason being the Turkish threat against further Kurdish expansion to the west and the American support of the Turkish threats.
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palandio
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« Reply #834 on: November 25, 2016, 04:41:22 PM »

The region of al-Bab (which is still ISIS-hold) is seeing an escalation between Turkey and its proxies on the one side vs. YPG/SDF and Assad loyalists on the other side (and everyone vs. ISIS of course). There seems to be a clear reapproachment between the YPG and the loyalists after the souring of relations in the summer/autumn (al-Hasakah clashes, Assad reluctantly allowing Turkey into Syria in the first place). This is of course dangerous because it could turn into a NATO member (Turkey) vs. Syria (+Russia) conflict. It seems that the Russians have not yet taken position in public, but I would be surprised if this were an Assad solo.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #835 on: December 12, 2016, 04:07:29 PM »

Well, SAA and Aleppo citizens now are celebrating complete liberation of the city.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #836 on: December 12, 2016, 04:35:15 PM »

Well, SAA and Aleppo citizens now are celebrating complete liberation subjugation of the city.

FTFY
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #837 on: December 12, 2016, 04:37:20 PM »

Well, SAA and Aleppo citizens now are celebrating complete liberation subjugation of the city.

FTFY


2/10, try harder.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #838 on: December 12, 2016, 05:29:46 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2016, 05:32:28 PM by BundouYMB »


"try harder" at what? The SAA used chemical weapons in residential areas in Aleppo. They've bombed the city indiscriminately over the last few years. They've been starving out residents during this farcical "siege" of the city. Have you been watching too much RT lately? Do you really think people are in the streets celebrating this? I never took you for being that stupid.
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Beet
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« Reply #839 on: December 12, 2016, 06:02:16 PM »

The Turks could have intervened back in '14 or even '15, taken out Assad, and set up a friendly government. Now they have Russian armed forces to their north and south, and a US president less friendly to NATO than the other side. No wonder Erdogan wants to make nice.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #840 on: December 12, 2016, 06:06:20 PM »

The Turks could have intervened back in '14 or even '15, taken out Assad, and set up a friendly government. Now they have Russian armed forces to their north and south, and a US president less friendly to NATO than the other side. No wonder Erdogan wants to make nice.

Yes, they could have, but as has been said before but the Turks only decided to intervene when the Kurds started making a little too much progress. I ing hate Erdogan.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #841 on: December 12, 2016, 06:06:39 PM »

The Turks could have intervened back in '14 or even '15, taken out Assad, and set up a friendly government. Now they have Russian armed forces to their north and south, and a US president less friendly to NATO than the other side. No wonder Erdogan wants to make nice.

     Turkey would have been rather foolish to make a move against Assad. It was obvious from the start that he had Russia in his corner.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #842 on: December 12, 2016, 07:06:49 PM »

Frankly, my main concern in this whole conflict is religious minorities. I do not want religious minorities to be wiped out or slaughtered. I had hoped that overthrowing Assad early on would have given a better government to all of Syria and preserved the rights of religious minorities, but then many of the rebel forces radicalized, then ISIS happened and started slaughtering everyone who wasn't part of their specific apocalyptic creed of Wahhabism, so.... I guess I'm in favor of Assad? I might be in favor of Assad and his surviving brothers being arrested as some sort of palace coup, and possibly installing someone less vicious in charge, but that looks very unlikely as a possibility.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #843 on: December 12, 2016, 07:27:30 PM »

Frankly, my main concern in this whole conflict is religious minorities. I do not want religious minorities to be wiped out or slaughtered. I had hoped that overthrowing Assad early on would have given a better government to all of Syria and preserved the rights of religious minorities, but then many of the rebel forces radicalized, then ISIS happened and started slaughtering everyone who wasn't part of their specific apocalyptic creed of Wahhabism, so.... I guess I'm in favor of Assad? I might be in favor of Assad and his surviving brothers being arrested as some sort of palace coup, and possibly installing someone less vicious in charge, but that looks very unlikely as a possibility.

If Assad somehow "won" (which is impossible, assuming winning means regaining complete control of Syria, because the Syrian army at the very least lacks the capability to ever regain the territory controlled by the Kurds) there would 100% be a genocide of Sunnis... and the very process of Assad "winning" would be unbelievably bloody in the first place given the SAA's tactics so far (which largely consists of bombing things to rubble from a distance and hoping the enemy dies with the civilians, since the SAA is so unbelievably corrupt and incompetent they can basically never win a ground war even when they vastly outnumber their opponent and have vastly superior weaponry.)

The least bad faction is clearly the Kurds, but the Kurds also completely lack the capacity to come anywhere close to "winning" and don't even desire to gain anymore territory (their only gains outside of the territory they consider part of Kurdistan have been at the behest of their American backers, and they have a). limited capability to gain anymore b). no desire to gain anymore and c). with Trump's election America likely won't even be pressuring them to gain anymore.)

Nothing good will come out of this chaos. There is no major faction to "support" or "root for." Every major player in Syria is rotten now.
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Mike67
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« Reply #844 on: December 12, 2016, 08:19:26 PM »

Syria and Russia are lowering the boom on ISIS and with Aleppo pretty much controlled by Syria and Russia I think the tide has definitely turned.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #845 on: December 12, 2016, 08:54:08 PM »

Syria and Russia are lowering the boom on ISIS and with Aleppo pretty much controlled by Syria and Russia I think the tide has definitely turned.

ISIS was never in Aleppo. There were miscellaneous, disorganized rebel groupings controlling various districts of the city.

And speaking of ISIS, they just reclaimed a major city from the Syrian government (Palmyra.) The Syrian government attributed the loss to "carelessness during tactical reconnaissance" and "failure to notice the enemy was fortifying the area" meaning the commanders had no actual idea of the state of the situation in the area surrounding the city. This is what I mean when I say the SAA is completely corrupt and incompetent above all else.
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Mopsus
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« Reply #846 on: December 12, 2016, 10:01:09 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2016, 10:03:01 PM by Mopsus »

Frankly, my main concern in this whole conflict is religious minorities. I do not want religious minorities to be wiped out or slaughtered. I had hoped that overthrowing Assad early on would have given a better government to all of Syria and preserved the rights of religious minorities, but then many of the rebel forces radicalized, then ISIS happened and started slaughtering everyone who wasn't part of their specific apocalyptic creed of Wahhabism, so.... I guess I'm in favor of Assad? I might be in favor of Assad and his surviving brothers being arrested as some sort of palace coup, and possibly installing someone less vicious in charge, but that looks very unlikely as a possibility.

If Assad somehow "won" (which is impossible, assuming winning means regaining complete control of Syria, because the Syrian army at the very least lacks the capability to ever regain the territory controlled by the Kurds) there would 100% be a genocide of Sunnis...

Assad is not going to kill 80% of his own people.
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Storebought
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« Reply #847 on: December 12, 2016, 10:20:16 PM »

The loss of Palmyra shows that Russia clearly (1) has not been targeting ISIS infrastructure during any of its missile bombardments (2) does not have the capability of fighting a two-front war against the West in the Middle East and eastern Europe at the same time. That's the sole reason why Russia wants US cooperation fighting "terrorism" in Syria: they need US assistance in propping up Assad so that they can have a free hand to conquer the Baltic states like they always wanted.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #848 on: December 12, 2016, 11:49:34 PM »

Frankly, my main concern in this whole conflict is religious minorities. I do not want religious minorities to be wiped out or slaughtered. I had hoped that overthrowing Assad early on would have given a better government to all of Syria and preserved the rights of religious minorities, but then many of the rebel forces radicalized, then ISIS happened and started slaughtering everyone who wasn't part of their specific apocalyptic creed of Wahhabism, so.... I guess I'm in favor of Assad? I might be in favor of Assad and his surviving brothers being arrested as some sort of palace coup, and possibly installing someone less vicious in charge, but that looks very unlikely as a possibility.

If Assad somehow "won" (which is impossible, assuming winning means regaining complete control of Syria, because the Syrian army at the very least lacks the capability to ever regain the territory controlled by the Kurds) there would 100% be a genocide of Sunnis... and the very process of Assad "winning" would be unbelievably bloody in the first place given the SAA's tactics so far (which largely consists of bombing things to rubble from a distance and hoping the enemy dies with the civilians, since the SAA is so unbelievably corrupt and incompetent they can basically never win a ground war even when they vastly outnumber their opponent and have vastly superior weaponry.)

The least bad faction is clearly the Kurds, but the Kurds also completely lack the capacity to come anywhere close to "winning" and don't even desire to gain anymore territory (their only gains outside of the territory they consider part of Kurdistan have been at the behest of their American backers, and they have a). limited capability to gain anymore b). no desire to gain anymore and c). with Trump's election America likely won't even be pressuring them to gain anymore.)

Nothing good will come out of this chaos. There is no major faction to "support" or "root for." Every major player in Syria is rotten now.

Well, "support" in the sense that if he stays in power in the areas he currently controls, I would be alright with that, as long as the minorities are not slaughtered. And beyond lackluster attempts to drive people out of villages, I don't think Assad will mess with the Sunni population too badly. All of the religious minorities themselves are not as numerous as the Sunni population, and Assad knows that. He needs to keep at least some Sunnis loyal, even with a shrunken territory and population, and he needs to protect his own Alawites as well as the Syrian Christians and Druze. I don't think the Yazdis are in Syria, only Iraq, so I don't think he'll bother with them. Hopefully the Yazdis will be okay after the butchery ISIS loosed upon them.

And I also support the Kurds in the territory that they claim, though I understand there's a lot of competing interests in that area, what with Turkey, Iraq itself, other Kurd factions, and so forth disputing the Kurdish authority in those areas.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #849 on: December 13, 2016, 10:41:05 AM »

Well, SAA and Aleppo citizens now are celebrating complete liberation of the city.
If you follow the twitter reports from this citizens it's usually terror as Assad's troops are executing children and citizens in Eastern Aleppo
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