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Author Topic: Civil War in Syria  (Read 132832 times)
Fmr. Acting Southern Del. The Saint
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« Reply #875 on: October 17, 2017, 08:38:08 pm »
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http://thehill.com/policy/defense/355906-us-backed-fighters-say-raqqa-liberated-from-isis

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U.S.-backed forces said Tuesday that they have liberated the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) self-declared capital of Raqqa in northern Syria.

There are roughly 6,500 ISIS fighters left in both Syria and Iraq, and only about 100 are “all but isolated in their quickly shrinking territory” of Raqqa, said Army Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition fighting the group.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on Tuesday declared that Raqqa had been liberated and fighting has ended. The group, a U.S.-backed mix of Kurdish and Arab fighters, has been slowly taking back the city from ISIS over the past four months.



Dillon, who spoke to reporters at the Pentagon from Baghdad via video feed, said ISIS was on the “verge of a devastating defeat” and more than 90 percent of the city has been cleared, but U.S.-led forces are continuing to oust the fighters

Winning!!!

(Not saying this in a Trump-related way. Just happy that the forces of good are further weakening ISIS)

No one accused you of imitating our President.

I know, just wanted to note that just in case.
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« Reply #876 on: October 18, 2017, 04:58:55 am »
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I've heard that the Al-Nusra Front (or something like that) is making a comeback in the West.
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« Reply #877 on: October 18, 2017, 10:14:52 am »
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Al-Nusra controlled Idlib province. Some times ago there were rumours that according to Astana agreement Turkey would attack Nusra positions and give these territories to moderate rebels, but at the end Turkish forces colluded with islamists against Kurds in Afrin canton.
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« Reply #878 on: October 21, 2017, 08:21:38 am »
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I've heard that the Al-Nusra Front (or something like that) is making a comeback in the West.

Al Nusra or whatever they call themselves this week (Tahrir al-Sham) have always been strong in Idlib, the reason it haven't end the other rebel in the region, was because they served as a "moderate" "alternative" for the Gulf Countries and Turkey to fund. But with the losses elsewhere, the fall in foreign funding and the influx of rebels from enclaves which Assad allow them to leave, Al Nusra have lost the reason not to end the other rebel groups, which in general are deeply incompetent and those fighters are barely qualified to be cannon fodder.

What do ths mean in a greater context? They're losing and they're losing badly, I would be surprised if the rebel survives to 2019.
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« Reply #879 on: October 22, 2017, 02:06:38 pm »
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Al-Nusra is good enough, as they weaken Assad to where he can’t crush the Syrian National Council or the Syrian Democratic Council, the two good rebel groups. Ideally, Assad will waste enough forces on them for George Sabra, Suheir Atassi, Moaz al-Khatib, and Abdulbaset Sieda. Ideally, the SNC, SDC, and Rojava would sign an alliance against Assad and ISIS.
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« Reply #880 on: October 22, 2017, 05:23:59 pm »
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41714754

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Russia has accused the US-led coalition of bombing the Syrian city of Raqqa "off the face of the earth" during the fight against so-called Islamic State.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) took Raqqa last week and on Sunday said they had taken Syria's largest oilfield.

Pictures suggest much of Raqqa is in ruins, and Moscow compared it to the Allied destruction of the German city of Dresden in World War Two.

The US-led coalition says it tried to minimise risks to civilians.

Russia has itself been accused of committing war crimes for its bombardment of Aleppo last year.




UN war crimes investigators said last week that there had been a "staggering loss of civilian life" in Raqqa.

Syrian activists say between 1,130 and 1,873 civilians were killed and that many of the civilian casualties were the result of the intense US-led air strikes that helped the SDF, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias, advance.

Given what Moscow did to Aleppo, they don't have the right to criticize us about carpet-bombing anyone, at this time.
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« Reply #881 on: October 25, 2017, 07:52:24 am »
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Al-Nusra is good enough, as they weaken Assad to where he can’t crush the Syrian National Council or the Syrian Democratic Council, the two good rebel groups. Ideally, Assad will waste enough forces on them for George Sabra, Suheir Atassi, Moaz al-Khatib, and Abdulbaset Sieda. Ideally, the SNC, SDC, and Rojava would sign an alliance against Assad and ISIS.

Here is a rough map of the situation in Syria/Iraq right now:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/Syrian%2C_Iraqi%2C_and_Lebanese_insurgencies.png

Can we please drop this fantasy notion of the Syrian Rebels somehow defeating the Assad regime? Especially considering they have Russian support it just Isn't. Gonna. Happen.

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« Reply #882 on: October 26, 2017, 09:19:17 pm »
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https://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-syria-tillerson/no-role-for-assad-in-syrias-future-u-s-s-tillerson-idINKBN1CV2HQ

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President Bashar al-Assad and his family have no role in the future of Syria, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Thursday ahead of peace talks aiming at a political transition scheduled to resume next month.



Tillerson said that the Trump administration backed the Geneva peace talks as the only way to end the more than six-year-old war and move to a political transition and elections.

He was speaking after holding talks with U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, who announced that stalled peace talks between the Syrian government and still-to-be-united opposition would resume in Geneva on Nov. 28.

“The United States wants a whole and unified Syria with no role for Bashar al-Assad in the government,” Tillerson told reporters in the Swiss city at the end of a week-long trip that took him to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan and India.





“It is our view and I have said this many times as well that we do not believe that there is a future for the Assad regime and Assad family. The reign of the Assad family is coming to an end. The only issue is how that should that be brought about.” 

When the Trump administration came into office it took the view that it was “not a prerequisite that Assad goes” before the transitional process started, he added. 

Is Tillerson talking sense here, or is there a future without Assad in Syria's future?
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« Reply #883 on: October 26, 2017, 09:22:48 pm »
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I think the Ba'athist regime will stay, but it would be for the best if the Assad figurehead is allowed to shuffle on. You can't really lead a country when a significant portion of the population think you are literally Hitler.
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« Reply #884 on: October 26, 2017, 10:35:17 pm »
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I think the Ba'athist regime will stay, but it would be for the best if the Assad figurehead is allowed to shuffle on. You can't really lead a country when a significant portion of the population think you are literally Hitler.

Why can't you lead a country? Hitler literally managed to do it until the day he died.  If Assad actually were a figurehead, he'd have been eased from power back in the days before the Russians  went all in and it looked like the best the regime could hope for was a stalemate.
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« Reply #885 on: November 03, 2017, 01:08:47 pm »
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Deir ez Zour (Syria) and Al Qaim (Iraq) were liberated from ISIS today. The SAA have launched an offensive towards the border crossing at Al Qaim as the SDF continue cleaning up IS pockets Northeast of Deir ez Zour.
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« Reply #886 on: November 04, 2017, 06:35:37 am »
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Deir ez Zour (Syria) and Al Qaim (Iraq) were liberated from ISIS today. The SAA have launched an offensive towards the border crossing at Al Qaim as the SDF continue cleaning up IS pockets Northeast of Deir ez Zour.

Looks like IS is done in Iraq.

The only IS area left there is uninhabitated desert north of Al Qaim.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #887 on: November 05, 2017, 10:00:41 pm »
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I think the Ba'athist regime will stay, but it would be for the best if the Assad figurehead is allowed to shuffle on. You can't really lead a country when a significant portion of the population think you are literally Hitler.

Why can't you lead a country? Hitler literally managed to do it until the day he died.  If Assad actually were a figurehead, he'd have been eased from power back in the days before the Russians  went all in and it looked like the best the regime could hope for was a stalemate.

If Assad is not overthrown, all of his current political opponents will die. Not even the Russians support that. If we could arrange a deal agreeing to back them against China in Africa, I could totally see them agreeing to withdraw support for Assad. Without them, Iraq's government might agree to assist in defeating Assad, and Israel definitely would.
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"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

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Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #888 on: November 05, 2017, 10:10:02 pm »
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http://thehill.com/policy/defense/355906-us-backed-fighters-say-raqqa-liberated-from-isis

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U.S.-backed forces said Tuesday that they have liberated the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) self-declared capital of Raqqa in northern Syria.

There are roughly 6,500 ISIS fighters left in both Syria and Iraq, and only about 100 are “all but isolated in their quickly shrinking territory” of Raqqa, said Army Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition fighting the group.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on Tuesday declared that Raqqa had been liberated and fighting has ended. The group, a U.S.-backed mix of Kurdish and Arab fighters, has been slowly taking back the city from ISIS over the past four months.



Dillon, who spoke to reporters at the Pentagon from Baghdad via video feed, said ISIS was on the “verge of a devastating defeat” and more than 90 percent of the city has been cleared, but U.S.-led forces are continuing to oust the fighters

Winning!!!

(Not saying this in a Trump-related way. Just happy that the forces of good are further weakening ISIS)

Well, the forces of 'not nearly as bad as ISIS' anyway.
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« Reply #889 on: November 05, 2017, 11:50:54 pm »
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I think the Ba'athist regime will stay, but it would be for the best if the Assad figurehead is allowed to shuffle on. You can't really lead a country when a significant portion of the population think you are literally Hitler.

Why can't you lead a country? Hitler literally managed to do it until the day he died.  If Assad actually were a figurehead, he'd have been eased from power back in the days before the Russians  went all in and it looked like the best the regime could hope for was a stalemate.

If Assad is not overthrown, all of his current political opponents will die. Not even the Russians support that. If we could arrange a deal agreeing to back them against China in Africa, I could totally see them agreeing to withdraw support for Assad. Without them, Iraq's government might agree to assist in defeating Assad, and Israel definitely would.

Why would Israel want to get rid of Assad?  He's a known quantity and Israel hasn't exactly been in the habit of late of taking risks in the hopes that something better will happen when it very well could be worse.

Iraq's government also isn't about to take active measures against Iran's ally.

As for Russia, why wouldn't Putin support Assad getting rid of opponents?  Putin certainly doesn't mind when his own opponents get killed.  Plus I fail to see either why it would be to our advantage to support Russia over China in Africa or why Putin would believe that we'd actually follow through on such a backing.
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Quote from: Ignatius of Antioch
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MB
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« Reply #890 on: November 06, 2017, 10:36:34 pm »
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I'd reluctantly rather have Assad than an islamist government. But I think it would be better for Syria and for the world if he steps down and allows an election to take place, once the war is over. I think the only solution is a confederated Syria.
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« Reply #891 on: November 07, 2017, 09:16:45 am »
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Election would solve the problem? In Syria? Where there were not fair elections in 50 years?

I think solution can be autonomy for kurdish regions and for de-escalation (opposition) territories and maybe if government give quarter of parliamentary seats to opposition and quarter to Kurds. But there are two major problems - kurds controll too much territory, half of their territory now is with Arab majority. And second - Idlib province and an-Nusra
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« Reply #892 on: November 12, 2017, 12:04:05 pm »
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I think the Ba'athist regime will stay, but it would be for the best if the Assad figurehead is allowed to shuffle on. You can't really lead a country when a significant portion of the population think you are literally Hitler.

Why can't you lead a country? Hitler literally managed to do it until the day he died.  If Assad actually were a figurehead, he'd have been eased from power back in the days before the Russians  went all in and it looked like the best the regime could hope for was a stalemate.

It's more complex, Assad have real power, but it's very much limited by other actors in the Regime. What we need to understand about the Assad family is that they're a compromise candidate. The Assad represents the air force, which are dominate by the Sunni middle class, these knew that the Alawite and pretty much every other minority group would start fight to the last man to avoid a Sunni leader of Syria, so when the air force couped Salah Jadid in 1970, they used Hafez Assad to show, they didn't want to establish a Sunni dominated state, and this was accepted.

So the Assad family are important, and Bashar Assad is pretty much the only possible choice in that family, because the rest of the family are either in exile (his uncles and cousins), a mad dog (his brother), stupid thugs (the extended family) or underage. So in case Assad suddenly died, they had to find another compromise candidate (Suheil al-Hassan would be the most likely candidate, when we look at the Regime from outside, which is likely the reason he seems to avoid politics with all his might).
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« Reply #893 on: November 12, 2017, 02:34:41 pm »
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I think a Confederation and potential independence are the only possible solutions. If Rojava, the Syrian National Council, and the Turks can agree to a map, I think it’s possible that we see an eastern confederation of Syria.
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"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

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« Reply #894 on: November 13, 2017, 01:34:14 am »
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Rojava is the biggest enemy of the Turks in Syria. They'd prefer Assad ruling rather than Kurdish autonomy.
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« Reply #895 on: November 13, 2017, 01:39:46 am »
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I'd reluctantly rather have Assad than an islamist government. But I think it would be better for Syria and for the world if he steps down and allows an election to take place, once the war is over. I think the only solution is a confederated Syria.

Ideally Assad steps down and they have free democratic elections as a multi-party democracy. But realistically, Assad is the best option.
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