Civil War in Syria

[Tender Branson]

It seems the Idlib offensive has started ... (about a month or two earlier than I thought).

There was huge bombardment north of Hama today and Syrian army forces + allies are being trucked to South Idlib in large numbers.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-air-force-launches-largest-assault-of-the-year-on-southwest-idlib

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http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/10082018

Not sure if this is the right time: maybe it would have been better to consolidate and "clean up" the recently-captured areas in the South and in the desert first and only then attack Idlib and the remaining areas of Aleppo ... ? If troops are redeployed from the South/desert to Idlib now, the chances of an IS comeback will increase I guess.

[Tender Branson]

"Surrender notes" is not entirely correct.

This is what the Syrian army dropped on the "rebel"-held areas of Idlib and Aleppo:

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Thank Goodness the noose is tightening around the neck of the so-called "rebels" (who are nothing more than stone-aged Islamo-Fascists). About time the US fully abandons these fu**ers and joins the right side in the final battle for Syria.

[Cory]

Thank Goodness the noose is tightening around the neck of the so-called "rebels" (who are nothing more than stone-aged Islamo-Fascists). About time the US fully abandons these fu**ers and joins the right side in the final battle for Syria.

Yes. We will bring them into our Glorious New Order.

[Tender Branson]

The Syrian army has almost cleansed the complete Suweida pocket in the desert that was still held by IS.

Only isolated IS cells remain in Syria and Iraq who strike government forces, but no real territory is left under their control.

[Mopsus]

Pretty gross if true:

https://www.rt.com/news/436093-yazidi-slave-germany-isis-refugee/

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[dead0man]

ISIS and Germany have a lot of the same goals and biases, so it's a natural fit.  Of course they'd rather have an ISIS member rather than some poor Yazidi teen girl that just wants to live in peace.


but RT?  Can we get a source that isn't horrible?

[Mopsus]

but RT?  Can we get a source that isn't horrible?

The article is based on a tweet, which contains a video of the victim telling her story. RT is just the willing vessel.

[CatoMinor]

In other news the SDF still hasn't taken Hajin or Ash Sha 'fah. I wonder what is preventing them from clearing out the last ISIS pocket left.

[Mopsus]

In other news the SDF still hasn't taken Hajin or Ash Sha 'fah. I wonder what is preventing them from clearing out the last ISIS pocket left.

Our government probably told them to hold off, in case we need the Islamic State to launch another offensive.

[Angel of Death]

I wonder if there is a somewhat precise demographic breakdown of the territory controlled by the DFNS.

[Tender Branson]

In addition to the coming Idlib Offensive:

Russia + the Syrian army have warned the US several times that they will soon attack the US-base in Al-Tanf and the surrounding area, forcing the US troops to abandon their base and retreat to Iraq or Jordan.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/06/politics/syria-russia-attack-warning-pentagon/index.html

[Tender Branson]

In other news the SDF still hasn't taken Hajin or Ash Sha 'fah. I wonder what is preventing them from clearing out the last ISIS pocket left.

They have started a "final" offensive there today, attacking the region from all sides.

But the Kurds still think it will take at least 2-3 months, because:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/world/middleeast/isis-syria.html

Also, the Syrian Army has started an offensive in the desert east of Palmyra, where some IS sleeper cells are still active. Some "Civil War Maps" still have a large portion of the desert there under IS control (which is not accurate, see map above), while others have it completely cleared already (also not accurate).

[Frodo]

In preparation for an eventual joint Syrian/Iranian/Russian/Hezbollah assault on the large Kurdish pocket in the northeast, we should be arming the Kurds to the teeth (if we aren't already), particularly with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, and perhaps weaponized drones as well.  Along with equipment to withstand chemical/biological attacks.

[Mopsus]

In preparation for an eventual joint Syrian/Iranian/Russian/Hezbollah assault on the large Kurdish pocket in the northeast, we should be arming the Kurds to the teeth (if we aren't already), particularly with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, and perhaps weaponized drones as well.  Along with equipment to withstand chemical/biological attacks.

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the SAA is ever going to attack the Kurds. It makes far too much sense for both sides to cooperate.

[Frodo]

In preparation for an eventual joint Syrian/Iranian/Russian/Hezbollah assault on the large Kurdish pocket in the northeast, we should be arming the Kurds to the teeth (if we aren't already), particularly with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, and perhaps weaponized drones as well.  Along with equipment to withstand chemical/biological attacks.

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the SAA is ever going to attack the Kurds. It makes far too much sense for both sides to cooperate.

It doesn't hurt to have contingency plans in case that dynamic changes.  And a well-armed Kurdish Syria would add an extra reason for the SAA and its allies not to attack. 

[dead0man]

In preparation for an eventual joint Syrian/Iranian/Russian/Hezbollah assault on the large Kurdish pocket in the northeast, we should be arming the Kurds to the teeth (if we aren't already), particularly with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, and perhaps weaponized drones as well.  Along with equipment to withstand chemical/biological attacks.

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the SAA is ever going to attack the Kurds. It makes far too much sense for both sides to cooperate.

It doesn't hurt to have contingency plans in case that dynamic changes.  And a well-armed Kurdish Syria would add an extra reason for the SAA and its allies not to attack. 

agreed in full

[Mopsus]

In preparation for an eventual joint Syrian/Iranian/Russian/Hezbollah assault on the large Kurdish pocket in the northeast, we should be arming the Kurds to the teeth (if we aren't already), particularly with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, and perhaps weaponized drones as well.  Along with equipment to withstand chemical/biological attacks.

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the SAA is ever going to attack the Kurds. It makes far too much sense for both sides to cooperate.

It doesn't hurt to have contingency plans in case that dynamic changes.  And a well-armed Kurdish Syria would add an extra reason for the SAA and its allies not to attack. 

Syria and its allies don’t need an extra reason not to attack, since if Gulf War III: The Whole Middle East This Time is going to break out, the Kurds will likely side with Iran/Iraq/Syria against Turkey/Saudi Arabia/Gulf States.

[Mr. Morden]

So what will happen to Syrian Kurdistan then?  It just remains autonomous?  Something like Iraqi Kurdistan in the 90s?

[Mopsus]

So what will happen to Syrian Kurdistan then?  It just remains autonomous?  Something like Iraqi Kurdistan in the 90s?

Syrian Kurdistan recognizes Assad, Assad recognizes the autonomy Syrian Kurdistan already has. The SAA is far too tired for any of the alternatives.

[Tender Branson]

"Solving" the Idlib problem militarily will take quite some time and will lead to many losses on the Assad side, so that invasion of Kurdish Syria is not an option afterwards.

[Tender Branson]

Putin: "There will be no military offensive in Idlib."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45554188

Instead, a de-militarized zone patrolled by Russians and Turks will be created.

I guess this is the best option right now ...

[Cory]

In other news the SDF still hasn't taken Hajin or Ash Sha 'fah. I wonder what is preventing them from clearing out the last ISIS pocket left.

They have started a "final" offensive there today, attacking the region from all sides.

But the Kurds still think it will take at least 2-3 months, because:

A WWII army would take this area in days against an Islamist militia.

Just finish this already.

[dead0man]

Syrians forces shot down a Russian jet while Israel was dropping bombs on Iranians and we didn't talk about it?

[Tender Branson]

Syrians forces shot down a Russian jet while Israel was dropping bombs on Iranians and we didn't talk about it?

Syria and the Russians should just down every aircraft the Israelis send into Syrian airspace.

Israel has no fu**ing business in Syria and stay the fu** out of there.

The only legitimate way for them to attack is if something is going on really close to their border, otherwise they should stop meddling there.

[Frodo]

Syrians forces shot down a Russian jet while Israel was dropping bombs on Iranians and we didn't talk about it?

Syria and the Russians should just down every aircraft the Israelis send into Syrian airspace.

Israel has no fu**ing business in Syria and stay the fu** out of there.

The only legitimate way for them to attack is if something is going on really close to their border, otherwise they should stop meddling there.

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.