Civil War in Syria

[Crumpets]

East Ghouta almost fully liberated from the rebel forces.

I wonder what Assad will do next ... move north to fight them in Idlib ? Or clear the remaining rebel pockets first south to Damascus and close to Israel and in the South-Western desert ?

Plus, the filthy Turks have almost taken the Afrin region. I hope the invading Turks get purged at some point later on and be removed from Syria.

Almost certainly invade Dara'a Province.

[Crumpets]

So... Sputnik has just posted out of the blue that Assad is definitely still in Syria. They say that local news reports were claiming he fled to Iran, but as a big consumer of Middle East news, I can say I definitely didn't see anything like that today, and after a bit of digging, I still can't find articles along those lines. Something fishy seems to be going on.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201804111063419213-syria-bashar-assad-family-source/

[Crumpets]

Why would Assad flee Syria when his side is winning the war? This seems like fake news designed to demoralize the Assadists.

My point is that the reports of Assad fleeing don't seem to exist - only the reports denying the (alleged) reports that he's fleeing. I don't know why he would flee, except unless he thought a US strike might hit his compound (and we did see new anti-aircraft weapons installed around the presidential complex just in the last few days), so that's a possibility. Either way, I don't think he's "fled" in the "permanently left and given up on the war" sense, but there's a chance he could be bunking with Rouhani for the next few days.

[Crumpets]

I read somewhere the Turks are removing Kurdish/Arabic signs in Afrin and replacing them with Turkish/Arabic signs. Pretty terrible if true.

They also took down a statue of Kaveh the Blacksmith - a Persian folk hero who legendarily defeated a foreign tyrant occupying Persian lands - because he was seen as being too much of an anti-Turkish symbol.

[Crumpets]

The Turkish-backed opposition Syrian National Army is launching an offensive to take the Tel Rifaat area from Kurdish and pro-Assad forces.

Source (Arabic)

[Crumpets]

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-steamrolls-turkish-backed-rebels-to-capture-key-town/

Just so you're aware, al Masdar is operated by the Assad government. They're not necessarily fake news, but they're a bad source to use on a story where there will be clear one-sidedness, and will play up regime advances, make the other side appear as jihadi-hevy as possible (not that they need much help in this particular fight). They also have really weird ads, I've found. Ashley Madison seems to be a major sponsor.

The Turkish invaders need to be kicked out of Syria and Idlib needs to be put under Assad-control as quickly as possible.

And send hundreds of thousands of new refugees into Europe? Many of whom have been radicalized by al Qaeda and friends? Interesting that you've changed your position in this regard.

[Crumpets]

Copying from the Trump/Kurd thread in USGD - major ISIL attack appears to be underway in Raqqa.

https://twitter.com/SirwanKajjo/status/1181706355704500224

https://twitter.com/cmoc_sdf/status/1181707512577441792

[Crumpets]

Last time we did this sort of strike, it was on the former deputy leader of al Qaeda Abu Khayr al Masri. I'm curious who this one might be.

https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1201888971279814656?s=20

[Crumpets]

Moscow Times: Russian Press Names Wagner Mercenary as Likely Perpetrator in Gruesome Syria Beheading

One of the men filmed beheading, dismembering and setting fire to the body of a Syrian man in 2017 is a former police officer from southern Russia, the investigative Novaya Gazeta newspaper has said six months after it first reported on the torture in Syria.

The paper initially named the alleged torturer as Stanislav D., believed to be a reconnaissance gunner with the Kremlin-linked Wagner mercenary group, in its November 2019 report. The Kremlin had said at the time that the reported execution, footage of which appeared on social media last fall, "has nothing to do with the Russian military operation in Syria."

“There was a chance of error and Novaya Gazeta did not mention his last name,” the outlet wrote Tuesday. 

“Now that we have received new data, there’s practically no doubt. We think it’s obvious that the video shows Stanislav Yevgenyevich Dychko, born in 1990,” it said. 

Dychko — reportedly one of between five and seven men shown in the gruesome videos — allegedly joined Wagner in February 2016 shortly after his discharge from the Russian Interior Ministry. 

[Crumpets]

First claimed al-Qaeda activity in Raqqa Province in at least 6 years.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1344792188497096709

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1368904258184245255

[Crumpets]

This has been a long time coming. Assad never forcibly retook a lot of the main population centers in the south, but instead had Russia negotiate on his behalf for their handover. The problem was, Assad was never going to abide by the terms of those agreements and insisted on a return to status quo pre-2011 governance with a strong Iranian and proxy presence in the region to boot.

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1420720106825453568