Civil War in Syria

[Kingpoleon]

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/09/23/553138494/mother-and-daughter-who-opposed-bashar-al-assad-regime-brutally-murdered-in-turk

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It sounds like Bashar Al-Assad ordered the killing (or at least was indirectly responsible)

It sure does take a lot of realism to ignore the fact that Assad's victory would almost certainly mean death for tens of thousands of political opponents. I'm glad the United Nations is willing to fight such inhumane - no, inhuman - leaders and their allies...

[Kingpoleon]

Al-Nusra is good enough, as they weaken Assad to where he can’t crush the Syrian National Council or the Syrian Democratic Council, the two good rebel groups. Ideally, Assad will waste enough forces on them for George Sabra, Suheir Atassi, Moaz al-Khatib, and Abdulbaset Sieda. Ideally, the SNC, SDC, and Rojava would sign an alliance against Assad and ISIS.

[Kingpoleon]

I think the Ba'athist regime will stay, but it would be for the best if the Assad figurehead is allowed to shuffle on. You can't really lead a country when a significant portion of the population think you are literally Hitler.

Why can't you lead a country? Hitler literally managed to do it until the day he died.  If Assad actually were a figurehead, he'd have been eased from power back in the days before the Russians  went all in and it looked like the best the regime could hope for was a stalemate.

If Assad is not overthrown, all of his current political opponents will die. Not even the Russians support that. If we could arrange a deal agreeing to back them against China in Africa, I could totally see them agreeing to withdraw support for Assad. Without them, Iraq's government might agree to assist in defeating Assad, and Israel definitely would.

[Kingpoleon]

I think a Confederation and potential independence are the only possible solutions. If Rojava, the Syrian National Council, and the Turks can agree to a map, I think it’s possible that we see an eastern confederation of Syria.

[Kingpoleon]

Once again, the free world has failed to protect Syria, just as we failed to protect Ukraine, Georgia, Kurdistan, Libya, Egypt, and so many more.