Civil War in Syria

[Person Man]

What invading forces? Just wipe out the Syrian Air Force (The entire Libyan Air Force was basically annihilated in two days) and then hit all the chemical weapons delivery systems with a bunch of cruise missiles.

This. Basically, Assad using his WMDs would pretty much justify what we did to Ghadaffi. Basically our goal won't be regime change, but simply to prevent genocide.

[Person Man]

What if he starts to release? Would we then be absolved of that responsibility of causing them to be released and perhaps some of the collateral damages of our actions?

[Person Man]

Well, Assad could attempt a genocide against non-Allawites if he knows hes not going to be more than another month or two in order to position his sect to have more power in the future of Syria. Then again, the powers might be might partitition Syria between Allawites, Kurds, Sunni Arabs and perhaps even Arab Christians.

[Person Man]

Well, Assad could attempt a genocide against non-Allawites if he knows hes not going to be more than another month or two in order to position his sect to have more power in the future of Syria. Then again, the powers might be might partitition Syria between Allawites, Kurds, Sunni Arabs and perhaps even Arab Christians.

Uh, what? Alawites are only 10% of Syria's 22 million population. Even a Hitler-like madman can't change that fact in two months.

The most rational thing for him to do is to gather all his most loyal army officers and send them to the Alawite coastal strip, order them to cleanse out non-Alawites and other undesirables from the mountainous strip, and then fly a helicopter to pick him up from Damascus at midnight. Then, plead for international peacekeepers to defend the Alawites from what will definitely be desires for revenge. Bonus, continue allowing Russia access to the Port of Tartus in exchange for Russia continuing to support the remnants of Assad-controlled Syria. The last part would be like the US supporting the last remnant of KMT-controlled China.

That actually makes sense instead of killing 300,000 people and perhaps chasing out anouther 1,000,000 in 2 months of sustained gassing in order to become a somewhat larger of a minority. That would probably create a Rwandan-style  repraisal.  This way, Assad would still have to commit a somewhat smaller of a genocide but he could be the Taiwan of post Cold-War dictators of a small country of about 2 million people. But this gets us back to the main point. Having a genocide at the next door of the western world at this magnitude is simply unacceptable and worse creates a very slippery slope towards making genocide a tolerated fact of life.  This is why we need to start an air campaign over Syria if any are released and if people are still dying after a week, we really should put troops on the ground if we can at least NATO on board....though maybe Assad already knows this and he is just bluffing and the course of the war will continue on its current trajectory of Assad losing sometime next year or Syria becoming the next Sudan for years to come.

[Person Man]

Assad promises to attack Israel, if they bomb a site in Syria again

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/2013530194217674256.html

and what would happen then?  Do you think that Israel would invade Syria?

[Person Man]

Assad promises to attack Israel, if they bomb a site in Syria again

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/2013530194217674256.html

and what would happen then?  Do you think that Israel would invade Syria?

Unless the entire Israeli government have been replaced with complete morons, it won't happen. First the Israel army have in the last 4 decades only worked as a occupation force.
Also the Israeli military have build for fast knock out, not long term military action, so the best they can hope for is weakening the government, rather than taking them out.
Even in Lebanon it worked more like a traditional occupation force. Israels other problem is that everybody hate them in Syria, the rebels moreso than the government.

They could of course do airstrikes on anything going in or out and if attacked, can defend. It appears to be a complicated situation for them.

[Person Man]

North Korean military officers are now on the ground in Syria, helping Assad

I think we can now say everyone is involved there.

This isn't a war anymore, it's a [inks]ing freakshow.

The next step is for some Minuteman volunteers to go to Damascus to protect the US border from incursions by Syrian refugees.

...or the French trying to re-establish the mandate.

[Person Man]

This could actually work out. If the Kurds break the back of ISIS by taking Raqqa, that gives solidifies the Kurds and potential gives forces non-Baathists and Western interests a potential solid leg to stand on. It will probably fall through but the Kurds seem to be the type of people we that we can have a lot less guilt dealing through. The only problem of course is Turkey but from what I have seen, the Kurds seem to have more western values than the Turks or anyone else there.

[Person Man]

Do you think that Assad will try to hold him self out as a sort of great conqueror or military genius after the war?

[Person Man]

I suppose that mass murdering eye doctor won. Congratulations to him and the country he burned.

Sounds like a James Bond villain.