Civil War in Syria

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

When I was more or less off-news during about one month, at one point about 2 weeks ago maybe I heard a bit about some talks of military intervention from Arab League, to which the Tunisian president would have negatively reacted.

In case of any kind of intervention from anybody, it would have to have clear signs it would be mostly welcomed and that the risks of making the situation worse would clearly be not high.

It's becoming a freaking mess over there, and the regime does everything to turns it into a civil war between Sunnis and Alawits. How insane this regime turned...

According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, today about 150.000 people gathered in Duma, 20 km from Damas, for the funeral of 12 civilians. A city that soldiers of the Free Syrian Army had taken on Saturday but then they withdrew. Some militants say that the authorities forces stayed on the gates of the cities though. It would be the biggest demonstration in Syria since the beginning of the revolt.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well opposition is getting SERIOUS: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57375542/syrian-general-slain-in-damascus-regime-says

I think it's obvious how they're going to operate now to speed up the collapse of the regime since it's obvious what will happen to any official who stood with Assad if Assad were to flee and the regime fell. How many non-exiled SAVAK officers survived into the 80s?

Nothing says that the opposition did it.

All what is blown all over Syrian State TV is suspect. Same for Alep terrorist attacks.

Could as well be the fact that this high-ranked official could have been close to defect to the opposition, no matter how he would be depicted as close to the regime or not, denounced by one of the thousands Syrian secret services, and then executed by them. Win-win operation, eliminate a betrayer, and accuse opposition of murder.

Could also be some isolated part of the opposition, there are several petty attempts at creating some new opposition forces that wouldn't necessarily be in line with the mainstream ones.

One week ago, there was a quite interesting one hour debate about it on France24, in which the spokeswoman of the Free Syrian Army said that a small group who had already claimed the death of a colonel on last Monday was totally small, not tied to them, and led by a small wanna be Saddam Hussein. She also said that the cooperation and the coordination between the Free Syrian Army and the National Syrian Council was under construction but kept going bigger, those 2 entities trying to be the most coordinated possible and imposing themselves as the only credible opposition in Syria. If something likes that happens we would be with an official political alternative which has its official force, something stronger that gives still more credit to the opposition, inside and outside of the country.

What happened yesterday is quite important, it shows a determination of the Arab League not to abandon Syria, and it's the 1st time an operation with external forces and/or external material and political help will be officially proposed. Also, since yesterday seems that the NSC will be more and more considered like the official opposition entity and maybe it could reach the status of official representation of Syria, like what happened with NTC in Libya.

The French and/or Qatari initiative (I'm not sure) to create a council of the 'Friends of the Syrian Revolution' is one more step toward a stronger support of Syria, and one week ago some people said that this structure could even be eventually used to skip the decision of the UNSC, to eventually go toward an intervention, some forces or some help. It will gether itself for the 1st time in Tunis in a few days, it could eventually be the occasion for NSC to become this official entity of the opposition, then maybe it's not time for them to screw their credibility with assassinations, I'd be surprised those things are approved by those who lead those entities.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The fancy band of brothers that opposed the UNAG, without surprise:

Belarus
Bolivia
Cuba
China
Ecuador
Iran
Nicaragua
North Korea
Russia
Syria
Venezuela
Zimbabwe.

Could eventually be the list of countries to know some regime change in a more or less short term.

Those who abstained:

Angola
Algeria
Armenia
Cameroon
Comoros
Fiji
Lebanon
Myanmar
Namibia
Nepal
Sri Lanka
St. Vincent
Suriname
Tanzania
Tuvalu
Uganda
Vietnam

Yesterday Juppé spoke with Lavrov in Vienna, after that he said that a compromise with Russia could be possible on the short term to, at least, send a humanitarian help through a next UN resolution, he had to make clear a next Libya would be out of question.

Maybe Moscow always need to have a Stalingrad to move then...

Lavrov stated that it wouldn't accept an 'inequitable' resolution though. Then nothing done but if it continues to turn into war massacres, Russia's rhetoric about 'equality of treatment' will look weaker and weaker...

Big demonstration day all over Syria today apparently, Homs, Hama, Idleb, Deraa, for the main ones, with a tough repression in those cities too, but also, for the 1st time, there has been significant demonstrations in some districts of Damas and Alep, which almost didn't move so far.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Evacuation of injured people from Homs has begun about 2 hours ago by a joint-convoy of Red Cross and Syrian Red Crescent, announced by the spokeswoman of International Committee of Red Cross on France24, and this after several days of negotiations with authorities and opposition. Oh the spokeswoman is speaking again, she announces that 7 women and children have just been evacuated from the murdered district of Bab Amr to the hospital of Homs, and that the ICRC is looking for more action all over the country.

The conference of the 'Friends of Syria' (renamed the 'Enemies of Syria' on Syrian TV) didn't give a lot apparently.

Overall officially rejects any kind of military intervention, directly or by sending weapons, only KSA would preach for sending weapons. Not much clear though because Tunisia and Qatar would preach for an Arab peace keeping force. Apparently mainly new sanctions are planed, notably from EU. And Kofi Annan would become the special envoy for UN and Arab League. Interesting thing, in the press conference that closed the summit about an hour ago, the amnesty for Assad's family would be rejected, unlike what was said in the opening of the conference. Also comforted the NSC in its role of main opposition force but didn't give it an international recognition role, unlike Lybia's NTC, inviting it to integrate the most Syrian representativity possible (which I guess means, 'please try to convince the most Alawites possible'), that one said being disappointed by those decisions.

Nothing clear and significant then, next meeting in 3 weeks in Istanbul.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Good news!

Hollande just held a big press conference on its general politics.

During this he said that France officially recognized the new Syrian National Coalition as the only legitimate representative of the country, as if it was the new official govt of the country then.

He then said that now that this step has been reached, the question of delivering weapons to rebels can be asked again.

Which would mean that rebels would have at least some French ground-air missiles in their hands in, I think, at worst more or less one month, which is when the next summit of the Friends of Syria will be held, which could be the occasion to take an official decision coordinated with eventual other countries.

That's the first Western country to take this decision, if it does like for Libya then UK would follow in the next minutes, and the US tomorrow.

That might become an as important turn than what happened on the 17th of March 2011 for Libya. Which wouldn't mean that the end of war would necessarily be coming soon, but that'd become a serious help, if only for the Syrian sky.

Yay! Vive la France!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So, far less hurry than for Libya to help Syria, once again...

I heard nothing from UK, and the Nobel Peace Prize 2008 didn't make sound his 1st news conference of his new mandate as positively sounding than the French one by refusing to recognize the new SNC like the new official authority of Syria, and also continues to refuse to deliver weapons, speaking about the risk that it falls in bad hands. Maybe he was speaking of the 1000-2000 Jihadists that are currently 'enjoying' the fact that nobody is helping Syrian rebels against Assad forces to play a more and more visible role in this conflict, helped by journalists who enjoy to air the black flags waving all over Syria, and all of this even if that's 1.000-2.000 out of how many? About 60.000 rebel forces at least, yeah, there is a clear Jihadist risk in Syria...

But whatever, thankfully there is always France to keep the flag up, this morning Fabius announced on a big radio that he gonna asked EU to lift the embargo on defensive weapons for Syria. If only to protect the 'free territories'.

After all, recognizing the new SNC as the new authority is also recognizing Assad regime as an occupying force in Syria. I like this paradigm.

On the ground Assad regime is de facto losing all authorities then in some places, since Turkey had said they would accept about 100.000 refugees on their territory, it reached 120.000 now, and people continue to come. Then Turkey is only accepted those who are in very bad shape, and is letting the other ones on the other side of the border, making humanitarian camps within Syria, and while Assad forces can still pretend they bomb some freed cities against terrorists, I'd be quite surprised they dare bombing a humanitarian camp, which makes of them some kinda definitely freed areas of Syria. Problem in those places though being that humanitarian conditions can be pretty bad.

Speaking about Turkey, they became the 8th country after France and the 6 countries of the GCC to officially recognize the new SNC as the new authority. But apparently France remains the only to make official steps to deliver weapons. Qatar would quickly follow I guess.

Also, François Hollande will officially receive Abou Qhatyb, the president of the new SNC in Paris on Saturday. Hmm, when you come to think about it UK moved after the Libyans came in Paris too, and Americans after France really showed they were willing to do something, then see you this week-end?

Whatever what those other powers can do as long as there is at least a few countries to help anyhow, because, the more you let Syrians alone, outside of the 'side effect' that the more you add to the today's figure of 39.000 dead people, the more you help the bunch of Jihadists that are in Syria and overall the more you give power to a possibly totally military authority in Syria in the future if there is nothing to balance the Free Syrian Army.

The new SNC seems to be an actual chance to not let Syria fall in some totally military hands now and in the future and to also have more chances to have a control on some weapons, and might be the last possible way to say to Syrians that they are not totally abandoned by the Human Community, because otherwise, if they succeed to freed themselves after...what? 100.000? 200.000? More?...dead people with everybody knowing, watching, having the means to help but doing nothing, do you just imagine how the ambiance would be...cold? And to what we would look like...

But thankfully there is France!

France, delivering Freedom since 1777

It would be good the US sometimes remember about their origins...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Good if so.

Meanwhile it's still really laborious in the camp of those who could help...

At first it was amusing, to one more time, see UK beginning to move itself to recognize the new opposition a few hours after Fabius officially spoke about weapons, but then it took them several days to finally laboriously officially recognize the only Syrian representation, becoming the 9th country to do that, but in the end refused to deliver weapons (kudos for the coherence...).

And so far I didn't hear about new countries doing it...

And apparently EU still didn't give an answer to Fabius request to lift EU blockade on weapons...

In between France took a new initiative though, when Hollande received the chief of the new opposition Moaz al-Khatib (sorry for the way I wrote his name last time). And then they created the 1st embassy of the new Syrian representation, in Paris. The ambassador has an interesting profile, he looks about 50 years old, and overall comes from a big Alawit family of Lataquiah, he says most of the coming work of the new SNC will be to seek for the biggest international recognition they can, and to unite the FSA notably in order to have the best possible control on weapons. He seems to be rather dynamic and constructive.

Today, Qatar also proposed to NSC to have an embassy in Doha.

Hopefully they won't have to wait more than the next gathering of the Friends of Syria, in about 2 weeks, so have some concrete help...

Ah well, not sure if that can be much helpful, but lately US and France have given a positive response to Turkey request to put NATO Patriot missiles on its border.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Latest quite hot news:

This morning lot of Revolutionary Committees announced that most places where rebellion have strong were totally cut of communications, Internet and cells, notably Damas. They said they ffeared a regime was preparing something nasty.

Very short time ago, France24 just announced that for the 1st time since the beginning of the conflict, Internet and cell networks are now being cut in the country as a whole.

And right now, there is a breaking saying that a major offensive of the army took place on Damas' airport road.

Maybe they didn't enjoy to see the use of the ground-air missiles (the French ones??), and maybe they also wanted to enjoy the fact that all cams are on New-York and Ramallah today.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Also I've read that of all the military and government officials that have deserted Assad, not a single one is Alawite.

Yeah, the new ambassador of Syria, belonging to a big Alawite family of Lattaquiah might be a fake one...

And I haven't watched the composition of the new NSC closely, but if they have an Alawite ambassador, they might have a further Alawite representation.

Not to speak about this:

In Syria they simply don't have any choice but to support the regime. The threat from regime sympathisers and the risk of getting massacred if Assad loses is simply too big.

...indeed.

The longer this goes on, the better for the radical Islamists, Al Qaeda, etc.

One of the biggest risks after Assad falls is a genocide of the Alawites.

Are you making an argument for NATO intervention here?    

For one thing, there's no support in the West to bear the costs of such an intervention.

In the Anglo world you mean?

http://www.sondages-en-france.fr/sondages/Actualit%C3%A9/Politique%20%C3%A9trang%C3%A8re

While the French, who have the biggest military means in the West outside of the US, and who can play a role to move some other EU countries to constitute a force wouldn't be too much annoyed by Russia position here, in term of popular opinion, if you believe polls, French regularly supported helping the opposition, till that poll of the 12/08/2012, which happened when it really turned into a total war there, that gave 51% supporting a French intervention.

'The West', belongs to the 1990s geopolitically, where Mitterand saw nothing on the 1st instant of the 1990s, and who had a rather odd positioning toward Balkanic wars, while 1989 has been US/'The West' victory over USSR/'The-East', and then the leaders against the nasty Serbs, till Bill Clinton becoming a total hero in Kosovo.

France began to woke up in 1995 with Chirac, slowly, and the US who peaked with Kosovo as being the total geopolitical leader and kept this image till 2001. Somalia 1993 was a 1st bad sign though.

Just for a little digression about 'The West'. There is not 'The West' in Palestine today for the most recent example...

About this notion of 'genocide'.

This belongs to XXth century imo, which for our sake we have left.

During a long time, till this August, this has mainly been a protest, non-violent, non anti-Alawites, it was exactly in line with the other Arab Revolutions, a call for Freedom and Justice of which the main the point is the ousting of their dictatorship, and in a 1st time of the 1st big symbol of it, the dictator and his family (since both are often, always?, associated in Arab dictatorships), or in wider sense to his 'clan', and this not in the cultural sense of the word so far, but in the very concrete sense, all the guys at the top of regime screwing the country for their sake.

Outside of the fact that actual genocides, which isn't a slight word, would more and more belong to the past, and the death of all people who have been taken into that might have at least been useful to this.

And outside of the fact that Arab Revolutions belong to a positive dynamic overall.

You can also add that in between there's been an International Justice being set, that several persons have been condemned for stuffs like that, that some are regularly caught, and then a lot of guys around the world pay far more attention before doing nasty stuffs, and anyways it made this less easy to them. But it's not as if the US were aware about all of this...

And you can also the fact that media are everywhere now. In 1980 Assad father massacred 20.000 people, no images, nothing, just some memories of some people in Hama.

Now, will it be wonderful after the fall of the regime?

Indeed not.

Has it been in Libya? No.
Has it been in France after Libération in 1945? No.

Outside of the war which is going on since this summer, given the atrocities committed against Syrian protesters during the months of protests by regime official and maybe overall unofficial forces against civilian protesters, while it must be condemned, you shouldn't be surprised at all to see indeed some nasty retaliations. That could be still more messy precisely due to the fact that the regime used a lot some civilian militias to practice atrocities. But so it goes in this case as it can go anywhere, there doesn't need an ethnic factor for it to happen, the word genocide has a sense, and I think the automatic confessional/ethnic fights in Arab societies are overall a Western intellectual construction based on lazy historical schemes, of which the Lebanese War might have been the last blow. In Iraq, it isn't Shiah vs. Sunnis, it's some Shiah militias vs. Al Qaeda. And lately it became Al Qaeda vs. Shiah populations. Civilian populations are totally taken in hostage there by this, what a pity, and kudos to the US to making them regret Saddam, because that's what you can often hear there when journalists do reports and documentaries...

Speaking about genocide should have some sense.

(...oho...the original post was...once again longer than 11.000 characters, kudos if you're still reading ...to be continued right bellow then...)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

International Justice, knowledge of other cultures, what a pity that the biggest diplomatic and military power became the most cut of the rest of the World...

Crazy how the US would still be stuck in the XXth century paradigm, both diplomatically and militarily, and even in the WW2 paradigm militarily, both in term of strategy and equipment (what the hell do you wanna do with all your aircraft-carriers? destroy China by carpet bombing?) and Obama's influence on that is shy so far, and the fact that it wouldn't be easy at all for him to change it would show how it is deeply seeded in the US geopolitical schemes.

But hey, with Romney we were in WW1, so I guess being stuck in WW2 remains a progress...

Gosh, I always reach the same conclusion:

Thankfully France's here!

And in a less hexagonal conclusions:

Thankfully France could one day brings it's diplomatic power, biggest diplomatic power since...Louis XIII at least till 1918, and that's notably this way the  French language became very international, and it remains the biggest network of embassies around the world after the US, and not very far iirc, it has its UN seat, and its military power, biggest Western army after the US, independent on all equipments, or being allied with other EU countries for the few non-independent ones (some helicopters, non fighting jets, satellites for what I remember) given it apparently has the 3rd military industry in the world (lol, even Russians buy big boats to us...), its nuke button, all of this could be a good start to build a European Defense!

A biggest defense and a biggest diplomacy which could be quite useful in cases like Syria maybe then, and anyhow to have a sane strong force around the world, what the UN isn't able to be, what the US can't be and could less and less be.

Because, unlike the US, the European countries have deeply enough shrunk geopolitical imperialism, may the price that populations taken in the colonial empires paid has at least been useful to this (even France is seriously shrinking its relationship to Françafrique so it's safe!).

Thankfully we're leaving an epoch where geopolitical schemes are deeply changing, it's all opened!

Ah, and, about Al Qaeda, yeah, the most it lasts, the most it helps AQ guys. But one more time, it's about 2.000 guys (for the most pessimistic observers), and a lot foreigners are in it, out of 20 millions of Syrians, and at least 60.000 rebel forces. The danger of Al Qaeda is...relative there.

The biggest danger about them would be they join AQ Iraq once the regime is fallen, in order to 'continue the Jihad!', and so they participate to destabilize Iraq.

That being said, the move behind all of this is a decreasing of Iran in the region.

1st in Syria, I don't need to develop I think.

2nd in Lebanon, Hezbollah would become more and more isolated, technically and politically.

3rd in Iraq, if the fall of Assad regime effectively leads to a destabilization of Iraq, 'lol', come to think about it, both Assad clan/regime elites and AQ fighters could flee to the Iraqi Shiah administration once the regime falls, because Tehran might not be fond to welcome some of the most murderous people in human history on their ground given how it could be inflammable for the Iranian youth...

So it might lead to a totally f**ked up situation in Iraq.

This while Qatar is enlarging is 'Califate', succeeded to already take Gaza, which the brilliant Israeli intervention might have still helped, because, while Al Qassam brigades are showing this...

Says: Thank you Iran

...in Gaza streets, in the end of the day, Israel succeeds to give a big geopolitical importance to Morsi, who is funded by Qatar, and by having destroyed all those infrastructures it will makes Qatari funds still more welcome in Gaza. Kudos Israel, always brilliant, and the US always here to brilliantly obey to them.

Qatar who is then becoming the 1st geopolitical power of the Peninsula, and even of the Gulf diplomatically, which makes KSA influence to be more and more marginal.

A major crisis in Iraq that'd clearly be Shiahs vs Sunnis could incite KSA to take back a lead, especially since Sunnis could appear as a persecuted minority, still more especially when you consider the growing political crisis in Kuwait, which is becoming the biggest political crisis there with Bahrain, and we know how KSA handled Bahrain...

...which can be seen as one more fail of Iran in the region, since they call for defending Shiahs all over the world, to which you could add the Saudi repressions of Shiahs in KSA, Iran didn't move here either, geopolitically it's one more fail for them...

And this while KSA is slowly going to softer and softer social policies and more and more home public spendings since to appease the possibilities of protests since the beginning of Arab Revolutions, some less radical policies coupled to this decrease of geopolitical influence in the Arab world, while still having this status of 'US puppet' could give still more strength and fuel to extremists in this country, who are always present if you believe observers.

You could also had the fact that protests in Jordan are being bigger and bigger and clearly led by Jordanian MBs, which would be of the same shade than Egyptian ones, and who could also be part of the rising 'Qatar Caliphate'...

So many things that makes that KSA really is at a crossroad and that might not accept to be continued to be marginalized, and thus that could try to take benefit of this loss of the Iranian influence all over the region to push further its advantage, and Iraq might eventually become the spot of this.

So, in short, all of this goes toward far and far less Iran all over. Which also confirms the way I use to see Iran as being in the last years of USSR...

And which also are so many reasons not to strike Iran!

Doing it could bring totally hazardous crazy consequences...

And thankfully the 2008 peace Nobel Prize had firm enough words going in this sense here...

...to counter this...



So the US might not be totally doomed!

But anyways, one more time, US 1777, Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Syria 2012...



(Hollande announcing he officially recognizes the NSC as the new Syrian authority)

Thankfully France is here!

(...France, Europe, US, the whole Middle-East, wow seems I went a bit beyond Syria here...

...read everything?? Kudos if so! ...)



Not other news of what's going on in Damas...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So it seems this time it's the good one. I'd be cautious though since everything has been so disappointing from the beginning in Syria...

Fabius said it can't remain unanswered.
Le Drian, the French Ministry of Defense is in the Gulf.
The Charles de Gaulle, the French aircraft carrier is on the way to Syria.

According to Olivier Ravanello, maybe the only worthy journalist remaining on itélé, the French diplomacy would have told them that something could happen before Monday.

Hollande gonna make a speech in the coming hours.

It has to be confirmed but it's just been told on itélé that Russia would have already said they wouldn't retaliate if some strikes were made in Syria (which would confirm that Russia really only always is what it shows, some pure...

...gonflette (bubbled muscles).

I hardly imagine Russia engaging into retaliations, at least military ones.

Turkey said it didn't care of UN veto, and would open some of its air bases.

So, so far we would have:

France
UK
Turkey
US

So far the most likely would seem something more or less like Libya, the US using tomahawks to destroy some military facilities and French and UK planes in the air to disable facilities too but also maybe striking offensive moving troops, eventually a total NFZ, but this seems less sure. NATO would once again be the logistic base (sight...).

In any case, if there effectively is a coalition, the mission will have to be clearly and loudly defined, and hopefully the official opposition will also be clearly associated to this and will also finally speak with a clear and united voice. Still something more or less like Lybia then.

The earlier this conflict will be sorted out, the better it will be for the whole region, we really don't need a black flag in the Mediterranean sea, and so far that's what we were helping by doing nothing on the long term.

My biggest worry for that whole region remains always the same for a while now, that totally screwed up piece of land decades after decades, Iraq. At all levels, sociologically, economically, politically, religiously, and yeah, notably through depleted uranium, and phosphore in Fallujah, on the health and ecological level. It has the potential to turn in something worse than it's never been in the coming years, and having Syria as a permanent training ground thanks to an ever going civil war was really not helping. Helping the Syrian cause would make that less young Syrians would join the black flags and have war as only perspective for the future. Offering them the perspective of a true solid help not depending on the black or green flag with a sword would make that only true international Jihadists would remain once the regime is moved, that is a few thousands of people, and Iraq and the whole region around really doesn't need more than that to know a deeper destabilization.

All of this being said, one more time, it's Syria, so it still have the potential to be once again freaking disappointing, from all parts.

In any case, still according to Olivier Ravanello, nothing would begin as long as UN observers are there, but hey, UN just said it suspended its mission there for safety reasons.

If something actually happens I wonder who would dare openly make the 1st step...

Barack Obama for the 1st time daring openly opening something?
The UK stopping to be the ever followers of either French or Americans??
Or, once again, France...

Well France has an historical responsiblity in having set this kinda Alawit regime in Syria, and  notably in the building of its military culture, it would have a kind of historical legitimacy/responsibility, outside of the fact that it also happens in an area where it is, at a lot of levels, directly concerned, the hottest spot on Earth nowadays, the beautiful Mediterranean Sea.

Hopefully this association of languages will be stopped to be associated to something shameful the soonest possible...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So for those who would have missed it like me, apparently there's a new thread.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

and like many have feared/expected, it's spilling over into Lebanon now. 

Lebanon is a sad story of never ending violence... Hizbullah has weapons, so do Palestinian Refugees, Syrian Refugees, Other Lebanese Political Parties... Lebanon is a war zone, never been an independent and peaceful country ever before.

Hmm, pardon?

I guess people living there could explain you a kind of difference between what happened between 1975 and 1990 there, and what happened since then.

Some violence in Lebanon? It already happened and would continue to happen here and there at times, and indeed the worse it be in Syria, the worse it could turn in Lebanon.

Something as harsh as they knew in the past?

Really, you never know, but if they wanted an actual new civil war, it's a long time it would have begun I'd say...

People aren't machines who make civil wars for the sake of matching their reputations, I suppose at least.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

All this is assuming the Libyan-style intervention in question had been designed to aid the rebels in overthrowing the Assad regime, as opposed to merely making a damned statement of our displeasure like President Obama is urging...   

It also assumes that a Libyan-style intervention would have had a similar effect in Syria.  That is a rather large assumption to make.  You are making the same damn mistake that Rumsfeld and Cheney made about Iraq, that optimistic assumptions about how the aftermath of fighting will inevitably become the reality.  Yeah, we can smash Assad's military, just as we did Saddam's, but winning the war is the easy part.  Winning the peace is even more important and there is no reason to think Syria would fall into line as easily as you think it would.

A 'war', means nothing, there are countless different kinds of military interventions, countless different kinds of political contexts, etc.

Comparing the situation in Iraq with the situation in Syria is, well, odd.

The news are too focused on Syria, so the echos of the Syrian Civil war in Lebanon are almost unheard internationally. The reality is that the whole country is hanging on a thread, there are Kidnappings, assassinations, bombs, high crime, visibly armed militias here and there... I don't know what is preventing Lebanon from slipping into a new civil war, but it certainly isn't "if they wanted an actual new civil war, it's a long time it would have begun", the people who carry the weapons and the civilians aren't the ones to call a civil war... I don't know who calls it, but it certainly not the common people...

I'm aware of the situation in Lebanon by its different shades.

Regardless of the fact that you would hardly start a civil war or something close to this without the fuel of the civilian population, still, people, no matter who start what, don't make civil wars out of nowhere, in general anybody needs a concrete reason to do something, and I don't really see who would have some interest to turn Lebanon into fire right now.

And even if someone want war, you need to be at least 2 to make war, escalations don't automatically work. And I overall really don't see the population easily slipping into this. Watching closely at the actual very harsh civil war in Lebanon shows how the fact that a lot of clueless young easily jumped into that was important to spread the fire all over.

Violence is always possible but we are in a totally different context than before, totally different dynamics that led to a civil war.

All of this being said there is this Lebanese saying that I love which makes that you indeed need to always be cautious when you speak about Lebanon:

If someone tried to explain you the Lebanese Civil War and that you think you understood everything, it's that you have been badly explained...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sad news for Syria, one more...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/02/06/aniseh-makhlouf-mother-syrian-president-bashar-assad-dies/79929336/

4 down, 1 away, then 2 left, on the, well, left

Might be a turn in Syria War, would eventually give an emotion to the 2 remaining brothers...



Unless the actual turn being that Russia recently discovered Go game, there's been such a fuss about that lately, then, after wanting to be chess world champions during Cold War, they might have decided to be Go world champions in their new trolling 'Cold War' now.

Map of the game, Syria, decisive point to win, Alep, game partner, the 2 guys on the left of the pic, those managed to have a good enough control of that game lately.

Besieged locality of Yarmuk, southern Damas, UN pic, for one pic that can be viewed, haven't seen others, but radio descriptions have been enough...

They're becoming as good at it as they were at chess, and are apparently winning again...

Apparently fights on the ground already began in Alep between regime and rebels, 120 already reported dead on both sides according to France24, and numbers of people fleeing that sick Go game oscilates between 20 and 70 thousands so far.



Personally, I'd be in IS, I might be like:

Both Russians are putting lots of forces on Alep to [definitely?] win the war on the [sane] rebels.

We're being more and more screwed on the East by heavier Western bombings.

Wouldn't it be time to try to gather a lot of our forces and so cool American equipment to try to crack Damas down...?

Thankfully I'm not in IS.

No matter they still control a 'state', they already managed to spread to the world, and international money from some bored Saudis would still be available if needed...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Now about 180 dead people in IS recent terror attacks in Homs (60) and Damas (120), biggest terror attack since the beginning of conflict.

So, yeah, being more and more militarily screwed on both sides, IS effectively focuses on Damas apparently, but they do it through what they can do the best, terror.

Those guys can't be militarily beaten.

Just like you couldn't win against AQ militarily, and the more the US went on it in the 2000s, the more AQ did spread around the world.

Happenning exactly the same for IS with a far bigger speed.

About the impact it can have on Syria, question would be on much some eventual harsh repeated terrorism can destabilize the Syrian regime.

The more they're hunting IS on the ground the more Damas walls would be in danger. I heard the regime army was on the gate of Raqqa, right?

And the more IS is wipped out from Syria and Iraq, the more they might want to 'discover new countries'...



Ah and, while we're at Homs, I've been surprised to hear that there were still people 60 there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5-xBFo85vQ

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Palmyra has been liberated.

Ban Ki Moon saluting this, awful to have to thank Russia and Assad, isn't it?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

At one point you must just laugh, really, and I have to thank all those guys for this, and the 'le sigh' wasn't bad either.

Thanks all of you, you lighten my mood, I laughed good, really.

[/f**king French humour again maybe]

[/f**king Syrian humour though]

[/Americans aren't bad either]