Civil War in Syria

[The Mikado]

I don't usually agree with jmfcst re: foreign policy, but yeah.  Being told you're too bad to be in the Arab League is actually kind of hilarious.

[The Mikado]

Syria is a very, very different conflict than Libya, and while I follow this every day (on the fantastic Middle East in Revolt thread over on SA), there's not a lot to comment on.  There won't be US or Euro intervention, and Syria has proven willing to use the most brutal tactics imaginable to succeed.  The only serious possible outcomes are a Turkish intervention or an Assad victory, and until the situation gets to the point that Erdogan has to make his decision, there's not too much to say.

[The Mikado]

Oh goody, another oil war.

For all that oil in Syria...right. 

[The Mikado]

I'm surprised this thread has been so quiet.

I made this observation before, and the answer is typically because -unlike with its more active Libyan counterpart- we have no skin in this game.  We don't (yet) have fighter pilots assisting the opposition.  Therefore people aren't as emotionally invested since American lives are not at risk.  We as Americans are merely spectators -not active participants.    

That's not the point.  The point is, unlike with Libya, there's not a lot we can do without a serious, long-term commitment.  The Libyan intervention was accomplished without a single NATO soldier on the ground and with no NATO casualties and limited collateral damage (from NATO, not from the Libyan rebels).  This was mainly due to Libya's spacious deserts allowing for an effective bombing campaign that could target Qaddafi's military effectively without endangering civilians.  Little, heavily-urbanized Syria is a completely different situation.  A NATO bombing campaign would kill far more civilians than Assad at his worst.

If there does end up being intervention, which, frankly, I doubt at this point, it will be Turkish with US backing and not American directly.  If there isn't, Assad wins.

More to the point, we've been having this exact same conversation for over a year.  None of the fundamentals change.  Why should this thread be more active when the fundamentals of the debate don't change?

[The Mikado]

Syria shoots down Turkish F-4

Pilots are apparently alive and in Syrian custody.  Syria does not want to provoke war with Turkey and will likely hand the pilots over.

[The Mikado]

Turkey threatens to cut off Syrian electricity.

Mixed bag, as that would mostly hurt civilians. 

[The Mikado]

Has any one else read reports that the rebel commanders are expelling Christians from areas under their control?

Supposedly one of the rebel factions has "Christians to Beirut, Alawites to Hell" as its motto. 

The rebellion is a pretty diverse grouping ideologically (it's not even really one thing other than "opposed to Assad"), but there's some unsavory people in there, yeah.

[The Mikado]

Has any one else read reports that the rebel commanders are expelling Christians from areas under their control?

Supposedly one of the rebel factions has "Christians to Beirut, Alawites to Hell" as its motto. 

The rebellion is a pretty diverse grouping ideologically (it's not even really one thing other than "opposed to Assad"), but there's some unsavory people in there, yeah.

And that's my concern- I want to stop massacres as much as the next sailor but will the alternative be worse? It seems we don't know at this point

The problem with the Syria situation is all the alternatives are terrible.  In my view, at this point, the least terrible (and still very bad) solution would be a Turkish (not US) intervention with Turkish troops safeguarding the populace, but even that would be a horrifying bloody catastrophe and I wouldn't fault Turkey for not wanting to commit to that.

[The Mikado]

Erdogan saber-rattles:

Erdogan: The history of our nation didn't start in 1923. Nine centuries ago, a hero from Anatolia protected Damascus & Jerusalem.
Erdogan: For many centuries, our ancestors didn't differentiate between Istanbul or Damascus, Mekka or Aleppo. #Turkey
Erdogan: Neither the lines drawn as borders of Syria, nor the despotic regime, can prevent the friendship of the 2 nations. #Syria #Turkey

[The Mikado]

This is going to be an absolute and utter catastrophe.

The neo-Ottomanist rhetoric is an...odd...move for a PM of Turkey.

[The Mikado]

Two Syrian generals(!) allegedly kidnapped by FSA in Damascus suburbs.

[The Mikado]

Does anyone doubt there's already covert Turkish special forces in Syria now?

Yeah, the shocking thing is that they got some top brass captured alive.  When going up against someone as ruthless as Assad, having high-profile hostages is a nice bargaining chip.

[The Mikado]

Interesting map.  Can't totally vouch for its accuracy, but given the situation, it seems reasonably correct and lines up well with Aleppo being the major battle ground.



In other news, 85 Syrian soldiers defected to Turkey.

[The Mikado]

Syrian military at start of crisis numbered ~300,000 people.  Turkey is estimating that over the past year a full 30k of those have either defected or deserted.

[The Mikado]

Syrian Republican Guards general Manaf Tlass, once a personal friend of Assad's, defects to Turkey along with his father.

[The Mikado]

Tlass and his father also have extensive (and somewhat bizarre) personal connections with prominent members of the French far-right (Syria used to be a French colony and the upper-class population is Francophone).  The Tlasses are one of the most important Sunni families in Syria and are hooked up with a lot of interesting people.

As Brown Moses Blog (which I think is the best starting place for analysis of Syria news the last few weeks) argues, "What this shows is that the 5 day visit to Syria I reported on yesterday wasn't just a one off event between the far right and Tlass family, but part of an ongoing relationship between the Tlass family and major figures in the French far right.  These links need to be exposed at a time when it's rumoured that Tlass will be promoted by the French to be part of any Syrian transitional government."

[The Mikado]

Meet Manaf Tlass:

[The Mikado]

Manaf Tlass, middle, at play.  Pictured with Frédéric Chatillon, former head of these lovely people: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupe_Union_D%C3%A9fense  Also pictured is Dieudonné M'bala M'bala, famed for his French anti-Semitic stand-up comedy (as in, one of his videos is literally titled L’Antisémite).

Tlass really has the "bad boy" thing going.

[The Mikado]

Mustafa Tlass (Fmr. Syrian Minister of Defense,Manaf's dad) apparently has a 3700 page (not a typo) memoir.   Not even Churchill had the stamina to lie about himself for 3700 pages.

[The Mikado]

Major turmoil in Damascus today, as FSA launches a surprise offensive in the Syrian capital.

http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=DCSAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-16-17-28-58

[The Mikado]

Lots going on today. Many rumors, difficult to tell what's actually happening, but this is a kind of Tet Offensive.  Strike way behind enemy lines, massive infiltration of the enemy army suddenly becomes apparent, destroy enemy morale...

Huge defections today.  If even half the stories of defections today are accurate, Assad's regime is leaking like a sieve.  At this rate, pretty soon Assad will be down to just his fellow Alawites.

Confusion as to whether the attack was a suicide bomb or a previously-planted bomb, we likely won't know the truth for a long time.

Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah gave a speech expressing solidarity with Assad's regime...since Syria is one of Hezbollah's two backers, along with Iran, Assad's regime collapsing would have devastating effects on Hezbollah.  Might Hezbollah, in desperation, launch a coup in Lebanon?

[The Mikado]

One of the rumors is that the defense minister and deputy were killed by someone on the inside (possibly one of their own security guards), because the thinking is that it would have taken someone on the inside to get that close to them.

I don't see how it could be otherwise.  It has inside job written all over it.

Question of the day: does Assad A. take his chances in Damascus, B. retreat to Lattakia and prepare to continue the fight on friendly ground, or C. take the next flight to Moscow and call it quits?

[The Mikado]

http://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/graphsandstat/evolution-syria%E2%80%99s-opposition

[The Mikado]

FSA controls all the border checkpoints on the Syrian-Iraqi border, according to the Iraqi government.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ispIrLdwmKGnbZc_TzlUOPGFyeow?docId=CNG.eeb39b7412701b678cf051d8c5bf6266.391

[The Mikado]

20-30k people from Damascus flee to Lebanon.

Between that and Damascus' Alawites fleeing for the coast, the old city must be feeling a bit empty (in addition to being an all-out warzone).