Civil War in Syria

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's good to see that someone is doing something about this. I don't know if it will stop Assad, but I hope it will have some impact.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's good to see they are taking the initiative. Sadly, they probably never will go as far as military intervention, even though it's probably the only way to get rid of the tyrant.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I happen to know some Syrians, both pro- and anti-regime and I can assure you that Syrian opposition is strongly against any foreign military intervention.

I see, but is there any other way to stop bloodshed ? It's clear Assad won't give up under any conditions, and he has all the means to stay in power and crush the rebellion. I don't know how protesters could even hope to survive against tanks and artillery.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's not time to call him to step down anymore. If they want to do something, they have to intervent now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Syrian rebels eventually succeed, they deserve massive kudos for doing despite utter foreign inaction.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really don't see how the "end of the Bashar Al Assad Regime" is "in sight" right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really don't see how the "end of the Bashar Al Assad Regime" is "in sight" right now.

Well, old megathread was bumped, that's all.

Anyways, I've never had the impression he was seriously under threat (unfortunately).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, quite shocking news. I didn't think the rebels would be able to inflict such harms to the regime. Does that indicate the tides are turning ? I'd like to think so, but I fear the civil war is far from being over...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's hope this is more than lip service...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even worse: this thread was titled "End of the Bashar al-Assad Regime is in Sight"... back in January.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any particular reason why the two of you are acting like jackasses?  Having a bad day, perhaps? 

Yes, I was overly optimistic regarding the demise of Bashar al-Assad's regime -but it looked justified at the time. 

Give it a rest. 

Oh, I'm really sorry. As SPC's, my post was absolutely not meant to pick on you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's hope this is a real turning point in the fight and not another "end of the Assad regime in sight" moment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's hope this is a real turning point in the fight and not another "end of the Assad regime in sight" moment.

I think Assad is toast in the long run, but I don't read these gains as meaning that the regime's collapse is imminent.  There's still a long way to go.  And even once Assad is dislodged from Damascus (whenever that may be), I'm not optimistic about the fighting ending anytime soon after that.  Since there's a much stronger sectarian character to this war than there was in the Libyan civil war, it seems likely that the Sunnis and Alawites would keep fighting each other for many years to come, a la Iraq in the mid/late-2000s.

Where's Petreus when we need him?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's funny that Iran's only ally in the region is ran by a heretical sect that would be relentlessly persecuted in Iran if they existed in any large number.

The Alawites have also become my least favorite branch of Islam (assuming you even consider them Muslims at all of course) due to their staunch support of Assad.

Your propensity to judge religious communities as single blocs is pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now for God's sake, start sending them some weapons instead of keeping doing speeches.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.

Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.

I am pretty sure that a large part of the population on both sides would have agreed to avoid the bloodshed if a compromise option had been on the table. Instead, Assad thought he could crush the rebellion and acted accordingly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.

Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.

I am pretty sure that a large part of the population on both sides would have agreed to avoid the bloodshed if a compromise option had been on the table. Instead, Assad thought he could crush the rebellion and acted accordingly.

As Alexis de Tocqueville pointed out, a dictatorial regime is at its absolute weakest and most likely to be overthrown when it is attempting to reform.  Easing restrictions on people makes them more confident and more likely to speak up about the other problems they face, and make demands that the process go faster.  The easiest options are either conceding defeat and going into exile or going maximum hardline like Assad actually did: reform is something of a fool's errand that makes it more, not less, likely for a ruler to end up hanging from a telephone pole.

There is a lot of truth in this idea, but I don't think it's good to generalize too much. Negotiated political reforms might sometimes appease tensions and allow the regime to stabilize for a while (even though it might still eventually fall).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Our betrayal and treatment of the Shah was the greatest moral and geopolitical travesty of the past fifty years.

This might be the most ridiculous thing anyone's ever said on this forum.

It is pretty bad, but...

Armstrong is clean and thus he won fair and square. He's taken over 500 drug tests and was exonerated every time. This is what happens when a bunch of euros can't stomach that an American beat them on their turf 7 years in a row. He is thus champion. End of story