Civil War in Syria

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This year the UN and the Arab League actually did more than just talk!

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This is beginning to really remind me of the Chinese Civil War. On the one side, a morally bankrupt dictator with overwhelming conventional military power concentrated in the big cities. On the other side, a mostly rural group of rebels with greater popular support and rapidly growing numbers and weaponry despite still being massively outgunned.

Big difference is that Syria is riddled with sectarian undertones, where the dominant minority is genuinely afraid of the majority.

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Romney seems to be of the same sentiment:

Ah, yes, because funding Islamic militants in a proxy war against a strategic opponent has *never* had unintended consequences. Are US politicians *that* myopic or are they taking American voters as idiots?

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Syrian opposition groups finally reach a unity deal.  

They have footage too

Exactly what I thought. And the Kurds are equally opposed to Assad and the rebels, putting the Erdogan in an uncomfortable spot.

What do people think of Israel's involvement into this clusterinks? On the face of it Assad is trying to provoke an Israeli reaction to rally fence-sitters towards him, but it's so incredibly complicated. Aside from the internal sectarian factors there are now at least five foreign players in a civil war, each with disparate interests (Russia, Iran, Turkey+Gulf Arab states, US/UK/France, Israel).

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Who says Israel *wants* to take Assad out? In public Assad has used da Joos to rally Syrians (and to justify the 50 year long State of Emergency), but in private he was content with the status quo. Seems like both Assad and Netanyahu waited until Obama was reelected to begin trading shots.

Part of me suspects Israel, the west, Turkey, and the Sunni Gulf Arab states are making a tacit deal to prevent the rise of an anti-western, , and actively anti-Israeli regime in Syria. There are simply no clear battle lines.

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The Turks are clearly peeved with Assad as well and want regime change. Unlike Israel and the Saudis, I don't think they have some sort of broader geopolitical motive; the Turks are just not interested in the broader power struggles in the Middle East except insofar as they want both Iran and the Saudis to leave them alone. They're more motivated by (1) genuine humanitarian/democratic concerns and (2) making sure the Kurds don't get uppity (which doesn't really have to do with supporting one side or the other but does encourage intervention).

I think Erdogan knows he's gone too far in turning against Assad so dramatically. Back then he gambled that supporting Syrian rebels would further increase Turkey's prestige among Arabs. The jury is out on that one, but at what cost? Assad has since made provocations against Turkey and is apparently deliberately allowing Kurdish rebels to carve out a statelet. Syria has become a power struggle involving all the powers of the Middle East, and the West, and Russia. It's too late for Erdogan to back down, but it's only rational for him to play a geopolitical game.

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Israel won't openly support any particular side, since that's obviously the kiss of death. Maybe they'll launch airstrikes against a few weapons depot if push really comes to shove. Or maybe they'll not-so-secretly support a minority group like in Lebanon in the 80s.

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Obviously. At the same time, they said something to the effect of "but, if you hit a school with a missile, you're done". The question is whether Assad takes them up on the challenge.

Methinks Assad is merely testing Israel's response, and Israel has no choice but to make a small retaliation.

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You underestimate the amount of hatred ordinary Arabs hold for Israel. Many rank-and-file rebels are Islamists who have chafed under Assad's crackdowns (see Hamah in 1982) and accuse Assad of being too soft on Israel. Meanwhile Assad's propaganda accuses the rebels of being supported by Zionists. Neither are true of course, but Israel openly supporting the rebels ain't gonna happen.

Or maybe Israel will openly support the rebels to turn the Islamists and foreign Jihadis against the rebel leadership, enabling Assad to claw his way back to control. But that's entering cloud cuckoo land.

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The rebel should start publicly gunning down army officers outside of battle again and see how quickly they start deserting. Also what's the Syrian equivalent of West Point? That'd make a nice bombing target...

The top military leadership are Alawite and they know they won't fare well under any circumstances. Might as well go down fighting. It really isn't possible to separate the "good guys" from the "bad guys".

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Bashar has said he was born in Syria, lived all his life in Syria, and will die in Syria. Take that how you want.

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Well, Assad could attempt a genocide against non-Allawites if he knows hes not going to be more than another month or two in order to position his sect to have more power in the future of Syria. Then again, the powers might be might partitition Syria between Allawites, Kurds, Sunni Arabs and perhaps even Arab Christians.

Uh, what? Alawites are only 10% of Syria's 22 million population. Even a Hitler-like madman can't change that fact in two months.

The most rational thing for him to do is to gather all his most loyal army officers and send them to the Alawite coastal strip, order them to cleanse out non-Alawites and other undesirables from the mountainous strip, and then fly a helicopter to pick him up from Damascus at midnight. Then, plead for international peacekeepers to defend the Alawites from what will definitely be desires for revenge. Bonus, continue allowing Russia access to the Port of Tartus in exchange for Russia continuing to support the remnants of Assad-controlled Syria. The last part would be like the US supporting the last remnant of KMT-controlled China.

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This is why we need to start an air campaign over Syria if any are released and if people are still dying after a week, we really should put troops on the ground if we can at least NATO on board....though maybe Assad already knows this and he is just bluffing and the course of the war will continue on its current trajectory of Assad losing sometime next year or Syria becoming the next Sudan for years to come.

But wouldn't bombing canisters containing poison gas, you know, release them? And if Assad's smart he's located the weapons depots near crowded urban areas to prevent just that from happening.

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Damn, if I were in the Chinese Politburo I'd be desperately hoping for the US to jump head on to its...fourth Middle Eastern war in a decade, since it would distract Obama's attention from my backyard. Bonus? Syria's sectarianism make Iraq's seem almost like Belgium.

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Perhaps the Russians view Assad as a tool they can use to safely troll the west as long as he genuinely fears for his life. Fly/ship him some ex-Soviet hardware, accuse the west of supporting Islamic terrorists, frustrate US attempts to leave the Middle East, and cause trouble for key US allies Israel and Turkey. The only cost is some hot air from Washington.

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Rebel caught on video eating heart of dead soldier: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22523804 (not a link to the actual video)

Surprised nobody posted it... not.

The west supporting a rebellion by radical Islamists in a proxy war against Russia. Hasn't this happened before?

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Disturbing but not exactly a war crime in my view anyway, biting the heart of someone who's already dead doesn't hurt the dead person any more than they already are.

Maybe eating a dead person's body isn't a war crime per se, but committing an indignity against a human body is unnecessary and obscene. Especially when the Koran expressly forbids it.

I don't believe the promise. The Syrian rebellion ceased being an organized fighting force like in Libya long ago, and the longer it drags on the more the radical Islamist groups marginalize what's left of the genuinely pro-democratic opposition.

Assad played his cards well in turning the initially peaceful and non-sectarian demands for democracy into a sectarian bloodbath.

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Well if the Koran forbids it, that's just evidence AGAINST someone being a radical Islamist.

The Bible forbids plenty of things. Doesn't stop self-proclaimed Christians from doing so.

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There you go. By equating the rebels with Assad's forces, it's clear to everyone that there's no good side in this war. And if anything, Assad and Putin can occupy the moral high ground claiming they're preventing a genocide against minority groups. Putin expressly promised to make protecting Christians a priority of his foreign policy before retaking the presidency last year.