Civil War in Syria

[politicus]

Bump..

Should be merget with Gerenal Syria Thread

[politicus]

The 'least expensive option' isn't the one that will prevent the most suffering.

Actually it probably is - at least if you primarily measure suffering as loss of lives and property. A regime repression of the opposition is most likely going to be the least bloody outcome, if thats all you care about (which is in no way my position). Huge massacres on Alawites and Christians are going to be hard to avoid if the insurgents win.

[politicus]

This is going to be an absolute and utter catastrophe.

The neo-Ottomanist rhetoric is an...odd...move for a PM of Turkey.

Its a development that has been under way for a long time. A more positive evaluation of the Ottoman heritage has been part of Erdogans retoric from at least the late the 80s.

[politicus]

It's funny that Iran's only ally in the region is ran by a heretical sect that would be relentlessly persecuted in Iran if they existed in any large number.

The Alawites have also become my least favorite branch of Islam (assuming you even consider them Muslims at all of course) due to their staunch support of Assad.

Only know them from Turkey, there its a very sympathetic, antiauthoritarian and liberal version of Islam with no imams, layman participation in services presided over by laymen prayerleaders which can also be women.
In Syria they simply don't have any choice but to support the regime. The threat from regime sympathisers and the risk of getting massacred if Assad loses is simply too big.

[politicus]

I have an inexplicable soft spot for Asma al-Assad. It's going to be horrible to see her and her children dragged around the streets. Syria's such a shame. Up until this whole thing started I really did think there was a chance at reform and opening up, that Assad could prove to a progressive moderniser, which his background certainly suggested. Now that's all a dead dream, along with thousands of Syrians.

We in the West tend to overestimate how much one man can go in and change an already established regime. I think thats true of both North Korea and Syria. There are already a network of officers, cronies and other stakeholders around the throne that have a vested interest in the status quo and without their support the heir to the family dictatorship can change very little.

[politicus]

I would say that Assad did more that just let the status quo. If he had been that reform-minded, he could have taken advantage of the early stages of the Revolution to force gradual reforms. Instead, he has shown all his determination not to lose an inch of his power.

Giving in after a revolution has begun is a sure way of losing. There is basically only three options in that situation. Defeat the rebels, commit suicide or go into exile.

[politicus]

The more Israel attacks Assad, the more credibility it gives to the regime.

Its hard to see that there are any population groups in Syria that would suddenly start to back the regime at this point just because of anti-Israeli sentiments.

Israel is clearly a secondary issue in the middle of a ferocious civil war.

[politicus]

Wonder how Ankara is going to react to actually having Iranian troops in Syria. Iran having bases in the Mediterranean is one of the "worst case scenarios" the Turks have. Of course they will likely wait and see how it all develops, but its still a provocation.

[politicus]

An attack on Israel would be a major mistake at this point. With Hezbollah and Iranian support they have a good chance of defeating the rebels. Opening up another front will jeopardize this.

[politicus]

Trying to portray the people who started this in a sympathetic manner is pretty vile. The article says "The price of loyalty"...yeah loyalty to a murderous brutal dictator.

If I was an Alawite in Syria, I'd just convert out of it. No way I want to be on the side of a brutal murderer like Assad.

Alawite is de facto an ethnic identity more than a religious one per se, you cant just convert out of it. Its like the old Ulster joke, "Are you a Catholic or a Protestant?". "I am an atheist". "Yes, but are you a Catholic atheist or a Protestant atheist?". Only even more true in Syria.

[politicus]

It's worth noting that since Assad Sr. took power many decades ago, the regime has gone to great lengths to try to downplay the heretical elements of Alawite belief or erase them altogether. Evidently Damascus was well worth the Hajj.

This is an important point and I think that if the regime falls we are likely to see a renaisance of genuine Alawism with a remergence of the elements scrapped or downplayed under the present regime.

[politicus]

Trying to portray the people who started this in a sympathetic manner is pretty vile. The article says "The price of loyalty"...yeah loyalty to a murderous brutal dictator.

If I was an Alawite in Syria, I'd just convert out of it. No way I want to be on the side of a brutal murderer like Assad.

lol BRTD

yes yes I know, no one outside the US EVER converts and it's impossible for Hispanics to be Lutherans. Because CULTURE OMG!

Well no, you actually offer a valid example of conversion, under the threat of force.

The force here isn't for belonging to some psuedo-Islamic offshoot but for supporting a brutal dictator. As Beet pointed out one does not need to support a murderous to dictator to continue to claim to believe in this fake version of Islam.

Who are you to claim the Alawites got it wrong? You got a hotline to Allah?

[politicus]

Syrian rebels behead a Catholic priest

And we are arming these people?

Not necessarily directly since its a very diverse group, but its impossible to avoid that some small arms will end up with the fanatics.

If a limited number of weapons end up with the Jihadists, while the wast majority end up with moderate groups it could still be worth it.

Lots of savagery at both side at the moment, but an Assad win aided by Hezbollah is an almost unbearable thought. A rebel victory gives some hope in a best case scenario.

[politicus]

We need to call a truce with Assad and focus on ISIS for the time being. If we could work with the Soviet Union to defeat fascism in Europe, we can work with Assad's Syria to defeat Islamism in the Middle East.

Assad is a threat to the Syrian people. ISIS is a threat to all people. We have to pick the least worst option.

In the absence of evidence that ISIS has concrete plans to launch terrorist attacks in the West, I fail to see how ISIS in Syria is enough of a threat to merit bombing them, just so that Assad can retake territory from them.  ISIS in Syria is bad for Syria.  Assad in Syria is bad for Syria.  Why should we bomb one of them to help the other?  Especially since bombing ISIS in Syria and thus helping Assad risks unraveling the US's existing alliances with Sunni governments in the region.

Allowing one part to win the civil war would create, ya now, peace. Which would be an advantage to most of the Syrian people - provided it isn't the crazies in ISIS that wins. An Assad win would surely entail massive revenge on the rebels, but it would still cost fewer lives than continued warfare.

[politicus]

In the last edition of Foreign Affairs American Middle East expert and former CIA analyst Kenneth Pollack suggests that the US should build a brand new Syrian army to fight both IS and the Assad regime. He claims that while it would cost over 100 billion dollars it would still be better than the alternativ. Thoughts?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_M._Pollack

[politicus]

Yep.  Not sure why their plight wasn't a bigger news story, but I understand some chick in England is pregnant....

Fiji is a small, remote and unimportant country.

[politicus]

Russia conducts airstrikes in Syria:

http://us.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html

Might be a game changer. Lets hope so.

[politicus]

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And what army will be on the ground guaranteed to uphold that?

Putin's action here has exposed American, European, and UN maneuvers in Syria as worthless. So yeah, "provide the Kurds autonomy", because once that is threatened it's not like anyone is coming to help.

You would need proper independence for the Kurds in Syria and Iraq for this to work. Autonomy would be a mess, always gives whoever controls the central government an excuse to interfere.