Scott Walker recall goes live (user search)
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Author Topic: Scott Walker recall goes live  (Read 105512 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: June 03, 2012, 08:59:30 AM »
PPP to release a final WI recall poll tonight between 11pm and midnight Eastern.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2012, 12:07:55 PM »
"Based on our first day of calls in Wisconsin Walker is ahead, but closer than the Marquette poll earlier this week."
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2012, 12:12:04 PM »
If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2012, 12:09:47 AM »
Angus Reid (internet poll of 524 registered voters):

53-47 Walker

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012.06.03_Wisconsin.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2012, 01:36:30 PM »
Time for my prediction:

51.13% Walker (+3.27)
47.86% Barrett
  1.01% Trivedi
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2012, 12:54:20 PM »
Huge turnout in Milwaukee:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2012, 02:36:38 PM »
More specific numbers:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2012, 03:34:17 PM »
Hahaha:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2012, 09:16:07 PM »
The New York Times has the Exit Poll table:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

Party ID is 34D, 34R, 32I. Based on the crosstabs, Walker is predicted to win with 51.6%

PPP did a great job by polling Walker+3.

BTW, Obama leads Romney by 53-42 in the exit poll.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2012, 10:09:15 PM »
Looks to me like a 52.5-47.0 win for Walker when Milwaukee and Dane are fully counted.

That would make Angus Reid the best pollster, while PPP and the Independent groups are average and We Ask America would be the worst pollster.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2012, 12:49:12 AM »
Obama's winning Indies by double-digits, while Barrett lost them by about double-digits:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/07/us/politics/shifts-in-wisconsin-voters.html

Obama also gets 94% of Democrats, but loses ground among Republicans compared with 2008.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2012, 12:55:03 AM »
Quote from: bawlexus91 on June 06, 2012, 12:53:04 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 06, 2012, 12:49:12 AM
Obama's winning Indies by double-digits, while Barrett lost them by about double-digits:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/07/us/politics/shifts-in-wisconsin-voters.html

Obama also gets 94% of Democrats, but loses ground among Republicans compared with 2008.

Yeah, but did you see the far right column in that link you posted? The net change since 2008 amongst EVERY single group of voters in Wisconsin is down, sometimes by double digit margins.

That's because 2008 was like the best result a Democrat could get in a Presidential year (except in a mega-landslide).
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