Scott Walker recall goes live

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Majority wants Walker recalled

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/52_in_wisconsin_support_recall_of_governor_walker

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office. Forty-seven percent (47%) would vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as governor.

Don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out, Scott.

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Anybody wanna bet this ends up a lot closer than the polls are showing it to be?

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LIKE WHAT 52% - 48%?  

I'm thinking more like a 51%-49% Walker victory personally.

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The PPP poll will actually be the first one in a while. The Marquette University poll was done 5/23-5/26.

I will be surprised if this doesn't end up pretty close. It'd be absolutely priceless if Walker actually lost but I'd still only give that a 1/4 chance of happening at best.

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Yes, feeling pretty good about my 51%-49% Walker prediction indeed. Looks like it could be an interesting night after all.

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The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.

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It's an internet poll so...

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Final Prediction:

Walker 51.2%
Barrett 48.6%
Other guy .2%

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I don't think it will matter since almost nobody will vote for him but does the other dude on the ballot seem like he leans to the left or the right?

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What would you do without me? 

Indeed.
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Pardon the twitter lingo, but here are some turnout anecdotes I'm reading about on twitter. These are just anecdotes, and VERY early ones at that (it's still just 10 AM in Wisconsin).

RT @MacIverWisc: Oak Creek - wards 10-12 - line snakes through gym and out the door. Unprecedented. Went 65% walker in 2010

RT @Brand_Allen: That's Waukesha Co (went 71-28% for Walker in '10) RT @MenomoneePatch: In mini poll outside Falls library, Walker got 13/15 voters #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Milwaukee Co, voted 62-38% for Barrett in '10. RT @tosasoccerdad Huge lines at Underwood in #Tosa this morning. #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen Again, in Milwaukee Co (62-38% Barrett in '10) RT @ShorewoodPatch: At 8:24 a.m. in Shorewood. And they just keep coming. #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen That's Dane Co(68-31% for Barrett in '10). RT @lgoldrick25: 23 min wait for me to vote in Stoughton #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Ozaukee Co(69-31% for Walker in '10) MT @aterkel Pt Washington poll worker on #wirecall lines today:"never seen anything like it"

RT @Brand_Allen That's Winnebago Co (voted 54-44% for Walker in '10). #WIgov MT @PGDougSchneider #Appleton guy reported 25-min wait at poll #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Dane Co., a Barrett stronghold. MT @jrburns I was voter #492 at 9:30 in one of 2 polling places in Mt Horeb. In a town of 7,000 #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Green Co, voted 50-48% Barrett in '10. MT @sgm_glen: I was voter #148 at 7:30 AM at the Town of New Glarus. Big turnout! #wirecall #WIgov

...and a personal favorite
RT @CynicusPrime: Don't worry. All the Walker voters are still at work. ;-) MT @jason_manc Slightly concerned by Dem turnout anecdotes

Edited:
RT @Brand_Allen: Racine County, voted 56-43% Walker in '10. RT @kylemaichle52 153 voter count for Racine District 1-Ward 1 -#wiright #wivote #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Eau Claire Co. voted 50-49% Barrett in '10. RT @aliciayager Im #183 in Eau Claire at 10:30. Seems kinda slow #wirecall http://pic.twitter.com/j19a5PUd

RT @biggovt: Long Lines as Recall Voting Begins in Heavily Democratic Milwaukee: As polls opened this morning for #WIrecall http://t.co/zsG6fr6E

Jesus... I used to live in Tweet 1... If that's true, that is farking huge... and really bad news for Barrett. Of course, it sounds like everyone over 18 in the state plans on voting today.

It looks like turnout will be big in general though, which is obviously pretty good news for Barrett. If turnout had been low, we wouldn't even need to bother watching the results...

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It'll be interesting to see how much Walker's numbers on intrade bounce around as more turnout reports come in.

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BREAKING

MSNBC just flashed some stuff from the first wave of exits:

Who will you vote for in November for President?

Obama 51%
Romney 45%

They flashed a few other numbers but I didn't catch it all... looked like most had a positive opinion of public employees but were evenly divided on collective bargaining.

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This is looking pretty close to me based on what I'm seeing so far. Of course, early exit polling info isn't the most reliable, to say the least.

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I'd love to meet someone who voted for Walker today and plans on voting for Obama in November. How does that work exactly?

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The scary thing for Walker must be that it's not yet 5 PM there...

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Workers tend to come out later on.

Anyway, CNN showed a bunch of new exit stuff. Basically looks like a 50-50 race right now.

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Walker continues to move downward on intrade but it is a very slow and gradual fall.

My history teacher today offered the interesting opinion that, "if Walker gets re-elected, he'll be the next President."

Somehow I doubt that. I guess he doesn't put much stock in Mitt Romney though.

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According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.

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According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.

Don't trust early exit polls overall... really don't trust internals of early exit polls. They're pretty much worthless.

You're preaching to the choir. We have to talk about something though.

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Also, John King on CNN just said 37% of recall EARLY exit poll voters strongly support limiting collective bargaining rights (50% total support), and 38% strongly oppose it (48% total opposition).

Saw that earlier. That should indicate a 50-50 race or close to it, assuming those numbers actually hold up (or at least you'd think it would).

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have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?

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In other news, a Madison CBS News reporter tweeted this: CBS exit poll: Of Barrett voters 53% vote for Barrett 45% against Walker. Of Walker voters 9/10 vote for Walker 8% against Barrett #wirecall

Wow, I'm surprised a majority of Barrett voters say they voted "for" him. Not exactly the most inspiring guy in the world.

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Latest exit poll numbers for Obama v. Romney according to CNN:

Obama 54%
Romney 42%

LOL.

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It definitely feels like the Walker people are still more confident than the Barrett people (for now).

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When did exit polls decide to suck all of a sudden?

They've never been that great.

Still too early to say how far off this one is though...