Scott Walker recall goes live

[cinyc]

It's way early and who knows what's in where, but Walker is ahead of his 2010 percent in most of the counties that have reported so far.

[cinyc]

When did exit polls decide to suck all of a sudden?

I'd wait for Milwaukee and Madison to report before concluding that the exit polls sucked.

[cinyc]

Interesting to note, Walker is actually LEADING in Milwaukee County right now, though only 13% is reporting. Barrett carried that in 2010 with 61%.

PS - CNN news anchor is reporting in front of a bunch of pro-Barrett cry babies live right now, and it's funny (in a pathetic sort of way).

Most of Milwaukee proper isn't in.  It's mainly Milwaukee County suburbs.  Barrett should do better when Milwaukee reports more.

[cinyc]

As of a few minutes ago, 16 counties have fully reported.  Walker outperformed his 2010 percentage in 12 of them.  Turnout was higher than 2010 in all of them.

[cinyc]

Fond du Lac County 100% in - Walker 29,037, Barrett 16,098 (Walker margin improved by 1600 over 2010)

Walker's margin improved, but his percentage in Fond du Lac actually fell by 0.41 points from 2010.  How is that possible?  Turnout increased by nearly 20% from 2010.

[cinyc]

How are the state senate races looking?

Looks like a Republican sweep, though SD21 is only 10% in so far and thus too early to call.

[cinyc]

In the 30 counties now fully reporting, turnout is up an average of 16.28% from 2010.  It is up in every county.  Walker is running 1.96 points ahead of his 2010 percentage in those counties.  If that trend holds uniform across the state, Walker should win with about 54.2% of the vote.  An eight point margin sounds about right.

[cinyc]

What's up with Racine county? They've still only updated 23/66 precincts and its holding up that last senate race....

Not sure. But Walker is winning 63-37% there, with 35% of precincts reporting. That's much better than the 56-43% margin he won Racine by in 2010.

The city of Racine separately reports results, which aren't always quickly integrated into the county's spreadsheet or AP tally.  The city leans Democratic.  The rest of the county leads Republican.  So if Walker's up by that much, it's safe to assume that the AP results are light on the city of Racine.

[cinyc]

Anybody else getting suspicious about Racine County's vote counters/

No, and I explained why in my previous post.  AP isn't integrating the Racine city and Racine county results well.

Racine city is 81% in.  Barrett leads Walker there 13596 to 7307.   The Republican incumbent in the Racine city portion of SD-21 is down 7056 to 13742.

In the rest of Racine County, Walker leads Barrett 25819 to 15002.   The Republican incumbent in the Racine county portion of SD-21 leads 16399 to 10775.  What percentage is out is hard to tell because of the way the county reports results.

So by my math, Walker leads Barrett 33126 to 28598.  AP is only showing about 50,000 votes.  The Republican incumbent in SD-21 is trailing by about 1,000 votes.

[cinyc]

Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.

[cinyc]

Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely.  

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.

They said they will sort it out tomorrow. :-(  

We know Walker will win the county and the senate district is almost the same boarder as the county.    

Well, the city updated its results and is now really all in.  There were more voters in the missing precincts than I expected.  The Democrat leads by 1,057 votes with three precincts in Mount Pleasant and one precinct containing the village of Waterford outstanding.  There should be just enough votes there to overcome the deficit - a net of about 1300 for the Republican incumbent if Mount Pleasant ward borders didn't change from 2010.   But ultimately this is likely going to depend on absentees and a recount.  The city of Racine has 225 uncounted absentees.  No report from the county.