UK Election Questions

[Jake]

Someone help me out

1) Does N/ Ireland participate in the UK Parlaiment?

2) If yes, how many seats do they have, and what parties run?

3) What are the approximate positions of the LibDems, Conservatives, and Labour?

4) What parties do well in Wales and Scotland.

Help is appreciated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Someone help me out

1) Does N/ Ireland participate in the UK Parlaiment?

2) If yes, how many seats do they have, and what parties run?

3) What are the approximate positions of the LibDems, Conservatives, and Labour?

4) What parties do well in Wales and Scotland.

Help is appreciated.

1. Yes (although Sinn Fein don't take their seats, although they do take offices so they can do constituency work etc)
2. About 17 IIRC (maybe 18). None of the mainland parties run. Main parties in NI: DUP, SF, UUP, SDLP
3. Labour: Democratic Socialists, lot's of different factions (everything from openly Marxist (although these guys don't have any power within the Party) to Clinton/DLC-like Third Wayers. Tends to be socially moderate (although, again, there are big contrasts).
LibDems: Socially liberal, tend to be somewhat right wing on economics (although there's a lot of variation on that), and there's also a wing of rural centrists.
Tories: Generally speaking socially and economically conservative, although there's a large almost Libertarian wing and (traditionally. Not many of these guys left) a wing which more-or-less translates into "Rockefeller Republicans" (Wet/One Nation Tories).
4. Labour are by far the biggest party in both (especially Wales) because of the large industrial/ex-mining areas in both countries. There are Nationalist parties in both (a lot smaller in Wales than Scotland), the LibDems do well with Sheep Farmers in Wales and Crofters in Scotland... while the Tories have collapsed in both recently.

[CARLHAYDEN]

When will the Tories dump the total jerk they currently have as their leader.

He seems to personify Burke's observation of Conservatives at the 'stupid party.'

[Ben.]

When will the Tories dump the total jerk they currently have as their leader.

He seems to personify Burke's observation of Conservatives at the 'stupid party.'

Howard isn’t that bad, it’s a verdict on the lack of new talent within the Conservative Party at the moment and the inability of the Conservatives to spot what little talent there is there that he is leader at all. David Davis is about the most promising candidate for the leadership, policy wise he’s a conservative populist and despite strong support from the less than innovative rightwing of the party he has a proven record as a pragmatic politician, he does however have a marginal seat though… any other contender is too young, discredited or just not electable, David Cameron and George Osborne are potential future leaders, John Redwood (hard rightwing of the party) will run for the leadership when and if Howard goes as will Tim Yeo  (Libertarian wing) and both will lose as will the openly gay libertarian MP Alan Duncan, few seem to picked up on just how strong Davis’ position within the Conservative Party and if Howard goes sometime in the next parliament Davis will be very likely to take the leadership.

On the issue of the LDs electoral chances, if you crunch the number even if they go from their 19% in 2001 to 21-23% this time around they may still remain fairly static in terms of seats. They stand to lose some to the Conservatives Torridge, Hereford, Weston Super-Mare and Norfolk North while they can probably make up for such loses with gains from the Conservatives in seats such as Taunton, Dorset West and Maidenhead and will make gains from Labour. However they are limited in number of seats they can gain from Labour because there are very few Labour/LD marginals and many of the seats where the LDs are in second place to Labour have huge Labour majorities… so I think they’ll get about 60 or so seats maybe slightly less but Kennedy will be weaker after this election despite an increased share of the vote, because he has raised expectations.                               

[Peter]

2. About 17 IIRC (maybe 18). None of the mainland parties run. Main parties in NI: DUP, SF, UUP, SDLP

Its 18. The Tories occassionally run candidates, though I don't know when they last held a seat in NI, probably before the end of Home Rule. Also note that the Alliance Party has representation in the Northern Ireland Assembly.

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I used to be one of the Wet Tories, but as you say there's very little room for us in the party these days; Basically we have to find room in the Social Dem wing of either the Libs or Labour.

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I think they are due for a comeback in Wales at least in the coming election as they have been doing quite well in the Assembly elections there (up to 11 of the 60 seats now)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think they are due for a comeback in Wales at least in the coming election as they have been doing quite well in the Assembly elections there (up to 11 of the 60 seats now)

Out of the 11, only 1 is a direct seat; the others come from the bizarre form of PR used in Wales.
Mind you there are two seats in Wales (Monmouth, Clwyd West) that were drawn to be safe Tory seats

[Ben.]

I think they are due for a comeback in Wales at least in the coming election as they have been doing quite well in the Assembly elections there (up to 11 of the 60 seats now)

Out of the 11, only 1 is a direct seat; the others come from the bizarre form of PR used in Wales.
Mind you there are two seats in Wales (Monmouth, Clwyd West) that were drawn to be safe Tory seats

Monmoth is a pretty sure fire pickup for the Conservatives IMHO, probably Clwyd West and the Northern of the two pembrokshire seats is a likley conservative gains as well... 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think they are due for a comeback in Wales at least in the coming election as they have been doing quite well in the Assembly elections there (up to 11 of the 60 seats now)

Out of the 11, only 1 is a direct seat; the others come from the bizarre form of PR used in Wales.
Mind you there are two seats in Wales (Monmouth, Clwyd West) that were drawn to be safe Tory seats

Monmoth is a pretty sure fire pickup for the Conservatives IMHO, probably Clwyd West and the Northern of the two pembrokshire seats is a likley conservative gains as well... 

West Wales (including Pembroke) has some weird voting patterns. Take nowt for granted out there...

[minionofmidas]

Little England Beyond Wales sounds like the sort of place to elect Tories...but that would be the Southern Pembrokeshire seat, not the Northern one.
I would have thought the Northern one was fairly safe Labour, with a good chance of a Nat setup whenever hell freezes over.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Little England Beyond Wales sounds like the sort of place to elect Tories...but that would be the Southern Pembrokeshire seat, not the Northern one.
I would have thought the Northern one was fairly safe Labour, with a good chance of a Nat setup whenever hell freezes over.

Northern half of Pembroke leans Labour (poor farmers, lots of agricultural labourers) while the southern half leans Tory ("Little England etc). When they split Pembroke into two, they added West Carmarthen (like North Pembroke but wi' more Welsh speakers) to the South Pembroke seat (making it lean Labourward).
Labour poll about 40/45% in both in Westminster elections (as Wales has a 1:3 Party system it means they usually win) and about 35% in Assembly elections (as Wales has a etc.)
I don't see the Tories picking up Preseli Pembroke unless they can somehow unite the non-Labour vote in the seat.

[Ben.]

I don't see the Tories picking up Preseli Pembroke unless they can somehow unite the non-Labour vote in the seat.

Fair piont, but i think its possible. If the Conservatives can't win this seat there in real trouble IMHO.

[minionofmidas]

I don't see the Tories picking up Preseli Pembroke unless they can somehow unite the non-Labour vote in the seat.

Fair piont, but i think its possible. If the Conservatives can't win this seat there in real trouble IMHO.

The Conservatives are in real trouble, have been for fiteen years, and I don't see no getting out of it.

[J. J.]

I don't see the Tories picking up Preseli Pembroke unless they can somehow unite the non-Labour vote in the seat.

Fair piont, but i think its possible. If the Conservatives can't win this seat there in real trouble IMHO.

The Conservatives are in real trouble, have been for fiteen years, and I don't see no getting out of it.

Make it ten years, and I'll agree with you.  Major, stunningly, pulled out that victory in 1991-2; I did not see that comming.

[minionofmidas]

True, I was exaggerating.
Then again, the last Conservative by-election gain was in 1989. (William Hague was the winner, btw.)

[J. J.]

I though there were a few under Blair; has every by-election been Labour and LD.

[minionofmidas]

There have been some by-election holds since (which is more than can be said for the 92-97 period). There also was a gain in a by-election to the Scottish Parliament.

[J. J.]

I would expect an increase in Tory seats after the next general election, though not a majority.

I do have to ask, is there a "von" in your family name?  :-)

[minionofmidas]

I would expect an increase in Tory seats after the next general election, though not a majority.

I do have to ask, is there a "von" in your family name?  :-)

Of course not.

[Silent Hunter]

The Tories used to do quite well in Scotland- in the 1950s they got half the seats.

In 2001, they got one seat and start off with zero due to boundary changes (Dumfries and Galloway would have been Lab on the new boundaries).

[Ben.]

I though there were a few under Blair; has every by-election been Labour and LD.

Pretty much, that said Labour's had some bad by-election over the last two years or so mostly in urban "safe Labour" seats its lost two and held two and in both cases the Conservatives have sunk to third and the LD either won or come second on the anti-war ticket... that said three of those four seats had signifcant Muslim populations.   

[J. J.]

I would expect an increase in Tory seats after the next general election, though not a majority.

I do have to ask, is there a "von" in your family name?  :-)

Of course not.

How unfortunate.  I've known a Freiherr and went to school with an Imperial Highness. :-(

[JohnFKennedy]

I though there were a few under Blair; has every by-election been Labour and LD.

Pretty much, that said Labour's had some bad by-election over the last two years or so mostly in urban "safe Labour" seats its lost two and held two and in both cases the Conservatives have sunk to third and the LD either won or come second on the anti-war ticket... that said three of those four seats had signifcant Muslim populations.   

Tories were 4th in Hartlepool.

[JohnFKennedy]

Howard isn’t that bad, it’s a verdict on the lack of new talent within the Conservative Party at the moment and the inability of the Conservatives to spot what little talent there is there that he is leader at all. David Davis is about the most promising candidate for the leadership, policy wise he’s a conservative populist and despite strong support from the less than innovative rightwing of the party he has a proven record as a pragmatic politician, he does however have a marginal seat though… any other contender is too young, discredited or just not electable, David Cameron and George Osborne are potential future leaders, John Redwood (hard rightwing of the party) will run for the leadership when and if Howard goes as will Tim Yeo  (Libertarian wing) and both will lose as will the openly gay libertarian MP Alan Duncan, few seem to picked up on just how strong Davis’ position within the Conservative Party and if Howard goes sometime in the next parliament Davis will be very likely to take the leadership.

I'd like to know what you think of Ed Vaizey? He is a journalist standing for parliament in Wantage for the Conservative party. The politics teacher at my school touts him as a future leader of the Tory party. What do you think of him?

Also, anybody reckon Hague will be back? He is still young, if he had waited a while he could have done a lot better as party leader I reckon.

[Silent Hunter]

I think that in order to have a shot at election, the Tories have to pick someone with no links to their previous Government. Howard has the fact he was Major's Home Secretary around his neck (and his employment performance is the source of many Blair attacks at PMQs).

[minionofmidas]

I would expect an increase in Tory seats after the next general election, though not a majority.

I do have to ask, is there a "von" in your family name?  :-)

Of course not.

How unfortunate.  I've known a Freiherr and went to school with an Imperial Highness. :-(

I'd doubt the latter. She might be descended of people with a claim to that title, but, being a title, it has been abolished.
Now, in case you wonder why I don't doubt the former: Many German ex-nobility families have dragged things that sound like titles into their family names. Thus Richard Freiherr von Weizsäcker's family name is Freiherr von Weizsäcker (Freiher meaning Baron). Since a 1928 court decision, women with such names are allowed to use a female version of the ex-title. Obviously, the yellow press, and many of the people involved, pretend these are titles, and call themselves, say, Prinz Ernst August von Hannover, and "der Prinz" (when really it should be Ernst August Prinz von Hannover, Prinz von Hannover being his surname).