The next flavor of the month after Gingrich?

[redcommander]

?

[Tender Branson]

There are no months left after the Gingrich-month.

[Bull Moose Base]

There are 7 weeks to go and with the desperation, frequency of debates and spending of money intensifying, I see Gingrich getting a short "month".  I'd been guessing Bachmann until I saw her woeful unfavorables, including, hilariously, upwards of 20% unfavorables from her own supporters.  I think Huntsman is likely to climb a bit in New Hampshire, which the media will no doubt latch onto and try to drum him up as the next flavor which would spark some backlash from the Tea.  But looks like Romney has a good shot at his ideal scenario: no consensus alternative to him after Gingrich peaks.  But I could also see someone else getting in, in December or even January.

[Mr. Morden]

The last six weeks or so before Iowa is usually when the volatility of the polling *increases*.  But things have already been so volatile that I'm not sure how much faster things are going to change.

Presumably the focus will shift to Iowa, and the big changes in polling there will come as a result of the candidates actually putting up big ad buys there.  Will Gingrich actually be able to keep the party going if he has no money to run ads?

[NHI]

Gingrich will be the last of them...

[Badger]

I say none. IF Gingrich slips to Paul, I suspect it'll get (muted) coverage over the holidays a week before Iowa. But Paul won't achieve true "flavor of the month" status until when and if he wins there.

[Simfan34]

I'm not a jmfcst, but I can tell you I've been getting good vibes from Santorum, especially from the debates. He's generic enough, if you take away the whole gay marriage thing. Santorum will be next. Gingrich has "baggage with his baggage" a lot of which we've forgotten, and as that comes back into the limelight we'll remember why he was booted in the first place. December will be the month of Santorum.

However, I think Huntsman's attempts to paint himself as a solid conservative with a moderate streak will finally begin to pay off, resulting in a stronger-than-expected showing in New Hampshire, which might make him the next flavor-of-the month, putting him in a good position for Florida and Nevada.

Paul will never be flavor of the month. His brand of "conservatism", if you can call it that, is just too far-out for most to swallow.

[Keystone Phil]

A perfectly timed Christmas gift is on its way for The Fighter and the Republican party...

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm not a jmfcst, but I can tell you I've been getting good vibes from Santorum, especially from the debates. He's generic enough, if you take away the whole gay marriage thing. Santorum will be next. Gingrich has "baggage with his baggage" a lot of which we've forgotten, and as that comes back into the limelight we'll remember why he was booted in the first place. December will be the month of Santorum.

However, I think Huntsman's attempts to paint himself as a solid conservative with a moderate streak will finally begin to pay off, resulting in a stronger-than-expected showing in New Hampshire, which might make him the next flavor-of-the month, putting him in a good position for Florida and Nevada.

Paul will never be flavor of the month. His brand of "conservatism", if you can call it that, is just too far-out for most to swallow.

If you look at where Huckabee and McCain were in polling a year ago and the volatility this cycle, the nomination turning into a Santorum vs Huntsman race seems plausible.  Glenn Beck is close friends with Huntsman Sr but has endorsed Santorum and called him the next George Washington.  If such a fight turned ugly, it could push him over the edge into stroke territory.

The last six weeks or so before Iowa is usually when the volatility of the polling *increases*.  But things have already been so volatile that I'm not sure how much faster things are going to change.

Presumably the focus will shift to Iowa, and the big changes in polling there will come as a result of the candidates actually putting up big ad buys there.  Will Gingrich actually be able to keep the party going if he has no money to run ads?

I don't know if past cycles were like this but Iowa polling has so far been way more responsive to the national press and momentum than to retail campaigning.  They'll probably converge a bit because so many of the December debates are in Iowa and all candidates except Huntsman will spend more time there, making gaffes and attacks, including ad buys.  But who besides Romney or Perry has any $ to spend in Iowa?  Presumably they'll both unload ammo on Gingrich if a month from now he's still looking this strong.  But even ad buys, the debates have shown at least damage people.

I'm rooting for a seven way-tie in Iowa with Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum all getting exactly 14%.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'm not a jmfcst, but I can tell you I've been getting good vibes from Santorum, especially from the debates.

Santorum would be brushed aside the instant his Jun 21, 2006 press conference announcing mission accomplished in the Iraqi WMD hunt is replayed.  Even FOXNews and the Bush White House called it utter BS which made a mockery of the sacrifice of the lives of US soldiers.

And I've been telling Keystone Phil for years that single press conference forever ruined whatever was left of Santorum's political career.  It was outrageous and despicable.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm not a jmfcst, but I can tell you I've been getting good vibes from Santorum, especially from the debates.

Santorum would be brushed aside the instant his Jun 21, 2006 press conference announcing mission accomplished in the Iraqi WMD hunt is replayed.  Even FOXNews and the Bush White House called it utter BS which made a mockery of the sacrifice of the lives of US soldiers.

And I've been telling Keystone Phil for years that single press conference forever ruined whatever was left of Santorum's political career.  It was outrageous and despicable.

So Santorum might be a short-lived flavor, but if there is a next flavor, Santorum will be that by default.   If he's short lived enough, maybe there will be time for Huntsman to be a flavor, but I doubt it as both Gingrich and Santorum would need to decay pretty quickly which is unlikely considering how long it is taking for Cain's bubble to deflate.

[Simfan34]

Huntsman doesn't need to lead. All he needs is some "flavoring", so to speak, to put him in a close second in NH. With his perpetual favorability among the media, it's easy to see how he could gain some serious momentum and be in the front of the pack by mid-January and February. He's gaining ground now, albeit small (1% to 3%), but we'll be seeing a major shift in perceptions thanks to a change in strategy and ad campaigns. Huntsman's tax plan was the most favorably viewed in NH, and the second most in IA, and while they didn't mention it was his, it shows he's putting forth proposals and has a record that the base could find palatable. 

[doktorb]

"If you take away the whole gay marriage thing"

Yeah, that'll be easy...

[Simfan34]

"If you take away the whole gay marriage thing"

Yeah, that'll be easy...

It really doesn't matter to the base, he just needs to make himself more about jobs- he really is a 2005 social conservative, and social issues really don't matter today. If he can downplay his anti-gay stance (it really is his defining issue) while showing his solid social credentials, and up his job proposals, he could really have a chance, but of course he'll go back down again.

One thing though, we talk like this is likely, but have the polls showed movement in his direction?

[GLPman]

Gingrich will be the last flavor of the month before we head to Iowa. It's laughable that some people voted for Santorum.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

"If you take away the whole gay marriage thing"

Yeah, that'll be easy...

yeah, if he were to come out in support of gay marriage, that would really help in winning the GOP nomination...

Santorum's problem is not his policy positions, rather it is the fact he has been a troll.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Paul should've gotten his month before Newt. But we'll take Christmas-Iowa and with our win in Iowa we change the game.

[opebo]

...It was outrageous and despicable.

Those are the prime prerequisites for success in the GOP, jmfcst.  You aught to know.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not a jmfcst, but I can tell you I've been getting good vibes from Santorum, especially from the debates.

Santorum would be brushed aside the instant his Jun 21, 2006 press conference announcing mission accomplished in the Iraqi WMD hunt is replayed.  Even FOXNews and the Bush White House called it utter BS which made a mockery of the sacrifice of the lives of US soldiers.

And I've been telling Keystone Phil for years that single press conference forever ruined whatever was left of Santorum's political career.  It was outrageous and despicable.

I don't think it was a mockery of lives lost, jm. Calm down.

Was it a ridiculous press conference? Sure. That being said, Santorum would have supported the war anyway so it isn't mocking any soldier.

And no, no one would care about that press conference. It would be a story that would play a few times on the cable news channels for junkies like ourselves to obsess over. That's all. Hell, it wasn't even made into an issue in 2006. Then again, I guess Casey and the Dems had enough to work with...