SE Asia Earthquake/Tsunami

[J. J.]

Horrific. It's up to what, 14,000+ dead now?

The toll will go up for certain considering Myanmar - assuming the government of Myanmar gives a sh**t what happened to its people - which I doubt.

I'm wondering about Bangladesh.  The bulk of the country is just a few feet above sea level.

[J. J.]

Supposedly, the ocen water retracted half-a-mile before the wave hit.

That's normal for Tsunamis, and one reason why they're so scary.

The USGS are saying that if the Indian Ocean had a Tsunami warning system like the Pacific very few people would have died.

Possibly, but they are so rare there, nobody really thought about it.  It's like a hurricane hitting Cornwall.  Yes, it has happened, but exceptionally rarely.

[J. J.]

FNC is reporting that the crown prince of Thailand is missing as well.

From what I can find out here it wasn't *the* crown prince - as in the one who will inherit the throne (45 year old man with two wives).  It was a 21 year old half-American grandson of the king, nephew of the crown prince, and avid sportsman.

Interestingly I think according to this the real crown prince flew the kid's mom down in his own plane to pick up the body for the state funeral in Bangkok.

Local news link:
http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=34151

It was one of the princes.  Secretary Powell just reported that he is dead.

[J. J.]

Possibly, but they are so rare there, nobody really thought about it.  It's like a hurricane hitting Cornwall.  Yes, it has happened, but exceptionally rarely.

Not the point: a destructive plate boundary borders the Indian Ocean. There have been several extremely destructive Tsunamis in that Ocean in the past, rare yes but they do happen every now and again, and the area is heavily populated and the seaboards tend to be fairly low lying.

Governments look and say, do we want to spend $5 Billion for tsunami warning, or to we wish to improve healthcare and sanitation and stop epidemics?  The choice between the two, even in terms of human like, is clear.

[J. J.]

They look at that choice and then they say: Hmmm, I dunno. That's awfully hard.
Maybe we'll just have a few nuclear reactors and some overpriced shoddily-built privately contracted roads instead.
(ends sarcasm)
Helmut Kohl is vacationing on Sri Lanka.

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My house doesn't have a "tornado room" a hardened room designed to stand up against F5 tornados.  Now, there have been tornados in Phila, one within 5 miles of my house; while I wasn't living here at the time, I happened to be visiting and was in about one mile of the tornado.  That was 14 years ago; it very unlikely that I'll need one this year.

The same principle applies here.

[J. J.]

There were fairly large after shocks today between 4.0 and 5.5.

[J. J.]

A UN spokesman just reported that in one Indonesian provience, he expects a death toll of 100,000.

It was also reported up 5,000 Australians working/vacationing in the region are missing.

I'm guessing that initial deaths will be in excess of 250,000.

[J. J.]

If people don't help out in any way they can, 250,000 would be easily possible. we all need to do anything we can-donate money, volunteer to answer phones, or if you are trained and can, head over thre, etc.

I'm talking about those already gone.

[J. J.]

I'd say already dead is probably closer to 150,000 at this stage, but in a few hours, it could be 160,000, etc...

I'm talking about the currently dead, but uncounted.  I expect that about 250,000 were killed in the wave or within a few hours after.