Oregon political trends thread

[greenforest32]

No new developments on the county funding issue really, just more specific numbers.

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/01/loss_of_federal_forest_payment.html

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That second graphic could really be more informative if they included the % of the county budget funded by the payments

[bgwah]

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What about Umpqua County?

I wonder how Washington state is dealing with this or do they not have any counties with circumstances this bad?

We got about $39 million in 2009 according to this link. So yeah, we get a lot less than Oregon, especially when you consider our state is almost twice as populous. Glancing over the county numbers, I imagine Ferry, Pend Oreille, Okanogan, and maybe some others could be hit pretty hard by it... Skamania County looks like it gets a lot and would be in a bad position, which this link seems to confirm.

[greenforest32]

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What about Umpqua County?

I think they were referring to a dissolution without a split/merge (no replacement).

I wonder how Washington state is dealing with this or do they not have any counties with circumstances this bad?

We got about $39 million in 2009 according to this link. So yeah, we get a lot less than Oregon, especially when you consider our state is almost twice as populous. Glancing over the county numbers, I imagine Ferry, Pend Oreille, Okanogan, and maybe some others could be hit pretty hard by it... Skamania County looks like it gets a lot and would be in a bad position, which this link seems to confirm.

Looks like Oregon gets the most of any state in absolute dollars and we're #2 (after PA) in dollars per acre of federal land : http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5251340.pdf

http://www.fs.usda.gov/main/pts/securepayments

[greenforest32]

Not a surprise but still disappointing: http://news.opb.org/article/poll-shows-oregonians-still-support-capital-punishment/

Relevant snippets:

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[greenforest32]

Some more interesting articles and data.

http://news.opb.org/article/will-presidents-approval-numbers-help-democrats-down-ticket/

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http://news.opb.org/article/how-health-oregons-gop/

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[greenforest32]

Then there is self-identification data for political ideology. Oregon usually has about a little over a quarter of its population self-identify as liberal (which is apparently in the top 10), a third self-identify as conservative and the rest self-identify as moderate

2011 numbers are out and it doesn't look like there is much of a change from 2009 and 2010:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152459/mississippi-conservative-state-liberal.aspx

[greenforest32]

It is pretty likely Democrats will hold the state senate and get a majority in the state house again in 2012. Turnout is always lower in non-presidential midterms and Republicans currently hold like 4-5 state house seats that are D+1-4.

2010 was basically Republican's greatest opportunity and the best they could do was tie the house (compare that to before 2006 where they won outright majorities). Demographics are swinging our way as well in Salem and Bend.

2010 redistricting basically just maintained our existing maps for another 10 years. We may get a 6th seat in Congress next time depending on population growth.

I am disappointed they tied the chamber though. They held up some good legislation last session.

Also, it actually turns out to be 8, not 4-5: http://dpo.org/news/pr/2012-03-06/strong-candidates-across-map-oregon-democrats-are-poised-win-big-2012-legislative

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http://www.oregonvotes.org/doc/voterresources/registration/feb12.pdf

[greenforest32]

I don't know if we'll ever reach parity. The states have a lot in common but if you go into the details they are different (just as an example, Eastern Oregon is more Republican/conservative than Eastern Washington).

Thought this was interesting:

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/oregons-regional-employment/





http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/portland-seattle-and-the-rest/

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[greenforest32]

I expect we'll be over 50% support for gay marriage by June 2012 (1 year after PPP showed us at 48%) and only going up from there, but I thought this was an interesting article.

http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-19211-the_10_year_engagement.html

"The 10-Year Engagement: President Obama has “evolved” to support gay marriage. Oregon isn’t there yet."

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Good old theocrats:

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http://oregonfamilycouncil.org/issues

[hopper]

We may not get that 6th house seat in 2020

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/oregons_population_growth_slow.html

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Where do you think that 6th House Seat will be drawn if you guys do get an another seat in the 2020 Census? What section of the state? Your from there obviously so would probably have a hunch I figure on that.

[hopper]

I thought the Portland ex-urbs were growing the most but I guess the middle of the state county wise is where all the population growth is now looking at that map above.

[fezzyfestoon]

Wow, the Tri-Cities area took the crisis on amazingly well for an area with so much new growth. This thread is fantastic, by the way. I'm definitely going to read up a lot more in this thread. Very interesting.

[hopper]

Honestly... I think politics in Oregon can be split right down the Cascade Mountain range. If you're on the east side, chances are pretty high your republican, if youre on the west chances are your a democrat. I still shake my head at the last governor election. All counties went red cept for 6 or 7 tiny itty bitty (tho dense with population) and the republicans STILL cant win. (I know its counted by popular vote but still funny) Just shows ya one certain city holds all the cards in the state.

Well you know people vote, not land. I've heard of some Oregon Republicans argue for a statewide electoral college for the Governor election. No thanks.

Though your charts were pretty interesting. And is our black population really that low?? o_o

Yeah I was surprised by that too. Washington has a similar Hispanic proportion, but twice the % for Asians and Blacks.

EDIT: I totally grew up in the state of Jefferson xD In fact a few years ago they found like one of the biggest marijuana patches in our states history.

Maybe we can spread the patches statewide in 2012: http://www.cannabistaxact.org/

Though I wonder how it will fare considering the dispensary initiative failed last year.

When will we finally free the weed?

I don't think an electoral college for a Governor's race would make a difference. The Dems rely on the city of Portland and the ex-urbs around Portland to pull out tight races right? Thats where most of the population is right now in the state: in Portland and the ex-urbs surrounding Portland.

[greenforest32]

Where do you think that 6th House Seat will be drawn if you guys do get an another seat in the 2020 Census? What section of the state? Your from there obviously so would probably have a hunch I figure on that.

I thought the Portland ex-urbs were growing the most but I guess the middle of the state county wise is where all the population growth is now looking at that map above.

That middle area doesn't really have that many people on its own. If you add up the populations of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties it's only about ~201k and while they were growing faster off of a smaller base, I don't think the growth will be that high for that area in the coming decades considering higher gas prices (Poor Bend, the proposed PNW high-speed rail line and its connection to California don't even touch it D:) and a good part of the growth was from the real estate boom which has fizzled in Bend but we'll see.

The Portland metro area (including Vancouver) is projected to gain an additional 1 million residents by 2030 (http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2009/05/portlandarea_growth_blurs_rura.html) and I expect this is probably where a 6th house seat would be placed by shifting the 4th district down further and rearranging the existing 1st, 3rd, and 5th districts. Most likely we'll have 5 districts in Western Oregon and one in Eastern Oregon that crosses over a bit in the North/Central/Southern areas.

I don't think an electoral college for a Governor's race would make a difference. The Dems rely on the city of Portland and the ex-urbs around Portland to pull out tight races right? Thats where most of the population is right now in the state: in Portland and the ex-urbs surrounding Portland.

Yeah it really wouldn't help much considering the EC vote would probably be weighted by population. I guess they just feel like counties = people and if majority of the land mass votes against you, you should lose. I always think of rural Illinois for this

[greenforest32]

Josephine county update:

the county commissioners have even said they might have to declare bankruptcy or merge with some other counties if the federal "timber payments" expire and the upcoming property tax measure fails

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/05/because_of_tax_levy_defeat_jos.html

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

58 cents per $1,000?! In the rural counties in Virginia, it's usually around 58 cents per $100.

[greenforest32]

58 cents per $1,000?! In the rural counties in Virginia, it's usually around 58 cents per $100.

Is that for just local? Those above figures were for just local I believe and most rates listed here are in per $1,000.

I haven't been able to find a state-by-state property tax rate comparison. Closest I could find was this and I'm not sure what the rate listed refers to (% of property value?) or if it's state or state+local: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/11leonhardt-avgproptaxrates.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Virginia's is only assessed locally. Does Oregon have a state-level real estate tax?

[greenforest32]

Virginia's is only assessed locally. Does Oregon have a state-level real estate tax?

Oh wow, I guess we don't. Looks like it's done by the local governments: http://www.oregon.gov/dor/ptd/property.shtml

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[greenforest32]

We don't have a statewide real estate transfer tax either (I think one of our 36 counties assesses a small one) and this year the realtors are ponying up cash to constitutionally ban any new state or local real estate transfer taxes: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Oregon_Real_Estate_Transfer_Tax_Amendment_%282012%29

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[LastVoter]

Wow, the Tri-Cities area took the crisis on amazingly well for an area with so much new growth. This thread is fantastic, by the way. I'm definitely going to read up a lot more in this thread. Very interesting.

Public spending goes a long way, too bad the locals don't understand it. Maybe if the Hanford workers were unionized, local politics would be a lot more interesting. Or maybe they are unionized but really dumb?

[greenforest32]

Ethnic demographics from the Census are always interesting to see as well

Little more on this:

http://censusscope.org/2010Census/states.php?state=OR&name=Oregon



http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/05/oregons_minority_births_on_ris.html

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[greenforest32]

Interesting poll about Oregon's ban on pumping your own gas: http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2012/07/20/survey-oregon-drivers-happy-with.html

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There was a ballot measure back in November 1982 (Measure 4) that would have repealed the ban and it got ~42.5% of the vote: http://bluebook.state.or.us/state/elections/elections20.htm

I was thinking maybe the support for repealing it had increased since that time because the ban was probably in more states back then but I guess not. Current figures are hard to come by but a 2003 article (http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Self-serve-gas-in-Oregon-Not-likely-1114712.php) says there were about 7,600 people working statewide in that position. I'm not sure if that's over-counting it by including employees who would be employed at the stations even without the ban.

The specific law (ORS 480.315) lists 17 reasons for the ban and it's a bit fun to read: https://www.oregonlaws.org/ors/480.315

Between us and New Jersey I wonder who will get rid of it first? And I wonder how it will play out with stations focused solely on electric vehicles?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I don't live in either New Jersey or Oregon, but I still don't know why self-serve gas would be illegal in those states, except possibly to prevent theft (at least back in the day.)

[CultureKing]

I think when it comes to mandating people to pump gas for you the focus should be on the quality of the jobs rather than quantity. We don't need thousands of jobs that keep you hovering around the poverty line, that really doesn't help the economy.