Oregon political trends thread

[greenforest32]

I've been doing some reading about the political demographics of Oregon and I figured I'd just make a thread to post interesting information, numbers, and maps in case anyone besides me is interested.

First off: political party voter registration statistics from 1950-2010 (2-year increments): http://bluebook.state.or.us/state/elections/elections07.htm

1950 - 50.36% D, 48.07% R, 1.56% O
1952 - 48.92% D, 49.52% R, 1.56% O
1954 - 49.09% D, 49.38% R, 1.53% O
1956 - 51.39% D, 47.12% R, 1.49% O
1958 - 52.30% D, 46.21% R, 1.49% O
1960 - 53.36% D, 44.99% R, 1.54% O
1962 - 53.59% D, 44.74% R, 1.67% O
1964 - 54.91% D, 43.15% R, 1.95% O
1966 - 54.56% D, 43.44% R, 2.00% O
1968 - 54.54% D, 43.31% R, 2.14% O
1970 - 54.59% D, 42.98% R, 2.42% O
1972 - 56.25% D, 39.57% R, 4.18% O
1974 - 57.08% D, 38.46% R, 4.46% O
1976 - 55.93% D, 35.02% R, 9.06% O
1978 - 54.52% D, 34.51% R, 11.03% O
1980 - 49.97% D, 35.99% R, 14.04% O
1982 - 49.53% D, 36.38% R, 14.10% O
1984 - 49.25% D, 36.95% R, 13.81% O
1986 - 48.47% D, 39.09% R, 12.44% O
1988 - 48.25% D, 38.64% R, 13.11% O
1990 - 46.87% D, 38.67% R, 14.46% O
1992 - 44.64% D, 36.17% R, 19.19% O
1994 - 42.94% D, 36.34% R, 20.72% O
1996 - 41.04% D, 36.42% R, 21.52% O
1998 - 40.28% D, 35.84% R, 23.88% O
2000 - 39.37% D, 35.78% R, 24.85% O
2002 - 38.95% D, 36.34% R, 24.71% O
2004 - 37.45% D, 34.40% R, 24.85% O
2006 - 38.83% D, 35.74% R, 25.43% O
2008 - 43.17% D, 32.30% R, 24.54% O
2010 - 41.73% D, 32.10% R, 26.17% O

* D = Democrat, R= Republican, O= Other parties (and non-affiliated/independent voters)

[greenforest32]

Voter registration map (including counties) from our primary back in May 2008 from this NYT article on Oregon: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/us/politics/19oregon.html



SE Oregon =

[greenforest32]

Then there's this map from Nate Silver: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/oregon-swing-state-or-latte-drinking.html

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[greenforest32]

Ethnic demographics from the Census are always interesting to see as well: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/

1990 - 90.8% White, 4.0% Hispanic, 2.4% Asian, 1.6% Black
2000 - 83.5% White, 8.0% Hispanic, 2.9% Asian, 1.6% Black
2010 - 78.5% White, 11.7% Hispanic, 3.6% Asian, 1.7% Black

We'll probably hit minority-majority status statewide in the 2050s.

[greenforest32]

SE Oregon =

That reminds me of the 1998 election for Governor when Bill Sizemore (a conservative who kept getting anti-tax measures put on the state ballot) won the Republican primary and faced off against incumbent Kitzhaber.

Sizemore lost in 35 of our 36 counties and by a 34% margin statewide (just imagine Tim Eyman vs. a Democratic candidate for Governor in Washington state. It's kind of like that) but he did manage to win one county in SE Oregon: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1998&fips=41&off=5&elect=0&f=0



You can bet that was the first county Kitz wrote off when he ran again in 2010

[greenforest32]

First of all, kudos on the great selection of Oregon-related information for introduction.

Do you accept (semi-obscure) electoral questions?

Thanks. I'm up for electoral questions but I can't guarantee I'll have the answer as I'm not familiar with making maps down to the precinct level like many other forum members are.

[greenforest32]

Yeah SW Oregon does stand out from the West Coast coastal areas:


I think it has a lot to do with resentment and the associated economic decline in the county from the spotted Owl ruling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Spotted_Owl#Controversy) that stopped a lot of the logging in the PNW.

Add to that with the fact that most of the county land is owned by the federal government and it's mostly rural I think explains some of it. They really are pushing it down there. They closed the county libraries a few years ago because they weren't willing to fund them via property taxes and the county commissioners have even said they might have to declare bankruptcy or merge with some other counties if the federal "timber payments" expire and the upcoming property tax measure fails: http://news.opb.org/article/counties-prepare-loss-federal-payments/

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Somewhat surprisingly, the county is a marijuana growing hub! It has a very high per-capita amount of medical marijuana cardholders: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/03/national/main20087493.shtml

Also relevant: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_%28Pacific_state%29

[greenforest32]

Good background on the 'federal timber payments': http://yournec.org/content/library-levy-fails

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Think they meant no state sales tax at the end there.

[greenforest32]

Honestly... I think politics in Oregon can be split right down the Cascade Mountain range. If you're on the east side, chances are pretty high your republican, if youre on the west chances are your a democrat. I still shake my head at the last governor election. All counties went red cept for 6 or 7 tiny itty bitty (tho dense with population) and the republicans STILL cant win. (I know its counted by popular vote but still funny) Just shows ya one certain city holds all the cards in the state.

Well you know people vote, not land. I've heard of some Oregon Republicans argue for a statewide electoral college for the Governor election. No thanks.

Though your charts were pretty interesting. And is our black population really that low?? o_o

Yeah I was surprised by that too. Washington has a similar Hispanic proportion, but twice the % for Asians and Blacks.

EDIT: I totally grew up in the state of Jefferson xD In fact a few years ago they found like one of the biggest marijuana patches in our states history.

Maybe we can spread the patches statewide in 2012: http://www.cannabistaxact.org/

Though I wonder how it will fare considering the dispensary initiative failed last year.

When will we finally free the weed?

[greenforest32]

It is pretty likely Democrats will hold the state senate and get a majority in the state house again in 2012. Turnout is always lower in non-presidential midterms and Republicans currently hold like 4-5 state house seats that are D+1-4.

2010 was basically Republican's greatest opportunity and the best they could do was tie the house (compare that to before 2006 where they won outright majorities). Demographics are swinging our way as well in Salem and Bend.

2010 redistricting basically just maintained our existing maps for another 10 years. We may get a 6th seat in Congress next time depending on population growth.

I am disappointed they tied the chamber though. They held up some good legislation last session.

[greenforest32]

It is pretty likely Democrats will hold the state senate and get a majority in the state house again in 2012. Turnout is always lower in non-presidential midterms and Republicans currently hold like 4-5 state house seats that are D+1-4.

2010 was basically Republican's greatest opportunity and the best they could do was tie the house (compare that to before 2006 where they won outright majorities). Demographics are swinging our way as well in Salem and Bend.

2010 redistricting basically just maintained our existing maps for another 10 years. We may get a 6th seat in Congress next time depending on population growth.

I am disappointed they tied the chamber though. They held up some good legislation last session.

So how long do you think it will take before Oregon becomes as Democratic as Washington state? 

I don't know if we'll ever reach parity. The states have a lot in common but if you go into the details they are different (just as an example, Eastern Oregon is more Republican/conservative than Eastern Washington).

I think Washington will continue to be more Democratic than Oregon and we'll probably reach where they are now in 10 or 15 years I think.

[greenforest32]

Another week, another article on the economic decline of rural areas with no oil/gas

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2011/12/in_rural_oregon_middle-class_l.html

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The coming decades are even darker for rural America with the inevitable rise in gas prices. Wait till we hit $6+/gallon

I wonder if they're still going to choose to live so far away from everything and vote for fiscal and social conservatism for another 30 years?

[greenforest32]

We may not get that 6th house seat in 2020

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/oregons_population_growth_slow.html

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[greenforest32]

So why is everyone moving to Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties in particular?  What's there?  Is there a major city in those parts?  

The growth in Crook and Jefferson counties wasn't really much (both counties have like ~20k people each and added about 5k in the last decade). Deschutes county (specifically Bend) is really where it's at and honestly I haven't got a clue why

Cheap housing and proximity to universities? But that doesn't really make sense. Why wouldn't people just move to suburban towns near Corvallis (OSU) or Eugene (UofO)?

OSU opened a satellite campus in Bend and now there's talk of turning that campus into Oregon's newest public university: http://www.gazettetimes.com/news/local/osu-cascades-sees-jump-in-enrollment/article_73073074-14e4-11e1-bc84-001cc4c002e0.html

Bend just strikes me as Eugene-lite and they're already so close. Weird...

[greenforest32]

Religious demographics are interesting as well.

The most thorough national study on religious identification with state breakdowns that I'm aware of is the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) which was done in 1990, 2001, and 2008. I'm not sure if they're going to keep doing it (I hope so!). ARIS ranked Oregon (and Washington state) as the least religious states in 1990 though some New England states (New Hampshire, Vermont) have passed us in 2008 report. Here are Oregon's results from that survey:

1990 - Catholics 15%, Other Christians 62%, Other religions 2%, Nones 18%, DK/Refused 2%
2001 - Catholics 14%, Other Christians 51%, Other religions 6%, Nones 21%, DK/Refused 8%
2008 - Catholics 14%, Other Christians 52%, Other religions 3%, Nones 24%, DK/Refused 7%

Sources:
1990 - http://prog.trincoll.edu/ISSSC/DataArchiveNSRI1990/index.asp
2001 - http://www.gc.cuny.edu/Faculty/GC-Faculty-Activities/ARIS--American-Religious-Identification-Survey
2008 - http://b27.cc.trincoll.edu/weblogs/AmericanReligionSurvey-ARIS/reports/ARIS_Report_2008.pdf

The most recent (2009) Gallup poll on state religious identity matched the ARIS numbers more or less, though it showed Oregon as the least religious state with the highest percentage of None/Atheist/Agnostics at 24.6%: http://www.gallup.com/poll/122075/Religious-Identity-States-Differ-Widely.aspx



Note: Right click - view image will maximize the above image

I also tried to find hard numbers on just atheists as opposed to no religion or unaffiliated and the best I could find was this state data from Pew from 2007: http://religions.pewforum.org/maps

Going under the "Beliefs & Practices" map and selecting the "Belief in God or Universal Spirit" shows results for states from the following options:

1. Believes in God- absolutely certain
2. Believes in God- fairly certain
3. Believes in God- not too certain/ not at all certain/ unsure how certain
4. Does not believe in God
5. Don't know/ refused/ other

Going with #4 as the atheist option, Oregon tied with Vermont/New Hampshire, Connecticut/Rhode Island, and Alaska (7.5% MoE for AK) for the highest percentage of atheists with 9% of people in each of these states not believing in God compared to the national average of 5%. Not bad but still pathetically low compared to European countries like Sweden

Too bad the Census doesn't ask about religion. That would be some awesome data.

[greenforest32]

Then there is self-identification data for political ideology. Oregon usually has about a little over a quarter of its population self-identify as liberal (which is apparently in the top 10), a third self-identify as conservative and the rest self-identify as moderate:

2009 data from Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/125480/ideology-three-deep-south-states-conservative.aspx





2010 data from Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/141677/Wyoming-Mississippi-Utah-Rank-Conservative-States.aspx




2010 Conservative-Liberal outnumber advantage:



I couldn't really find historical trends on state-level political ideology. There's plenty of national data but only a few recent articles on states.

Kind of sad that only D.C. and one or two states have more self-identified liberals than self-identified conservatives

[greenforest32]

They closed the county libraries a few years ago because they weren't willing to fund them via property taxes and the county commissioners have even said they might have to declare bankruptcy or merge with some other counties if the federal "timber payments" expire and the upcoming property tax measure fails: http://news.opb.org/article/counties-prepare-loss-federal-payments/

Latest news on this:

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/oregon_counties_face_sinking_b.html

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http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/in_curry_county_oregons_financ.html

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Maybe a property tax measure will pass and they'll be able to use some of the road funds for other purposes or maybe we'll have the state government end up taking over some county functions like Massachusetts did with some of their counties. I wonder how Washington state is dealing with this or do they not have any counties with circumstances this bad?

[greenforest32]

No new developments on the county funding issue really, just more specific numbers.

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/01/loss_of_federal_forest_payment.html

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That second graphic could really be more informative if they included the % of the county budget funded by the payments

[greenforest32]

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What about Umpqua County?

I think they were referring to a dissolution without a split/merge (no replacement).

I wonder how Washington state is dealing with this or do they not have any counties with circumstances this bad?

We got about $39 million in 2009 according to this link. So yeah, we get a lot less than Oregon, especially when you consider our state is almost twice as populous. Glancing over the county numbers, I imagine Ferry, Pend Oreille, Okanogan, and maybe some others could be hit pretty hard by it... Skamania County looks like it gets a lot and would be in a bad position, which this link seems to confirm.

Looks like Oregon gets the most of any state in absolute dollars and we're #2 (after PA) in dollars per acre of federal land : http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5251340.pdf

http://www.fs.usda.gov/main/pts/securepayments

[greenforest32]

Not a surprise but still disappointing: http://news.opb.org/article/poll-shows-oregonians-still-support-capital-punishment/

Relevant snippets:

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[greenforest32]

Some more interesting articles and data.

http://news.opb.org/article/will-presidents-approval-numbers-help-democrats-down-ticket/

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http://news.opb.org/article/how-health-oregons-gop/

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[greenforest32]

Then there is self-identification data for political ideology. Oregon usually has about a little over a quarter of its population self-identify as liberal (which is apparently in the top 10), a third self-identify as conservative and the rest self-identify as moderate

2011 numbers are out and it doesn't look like there is much of a change from 2009 and 2010:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152459/mississippi-conservative-state-liberal.aspx

[greenforest32]

It is pretty likely Democrats will hold the state senate and get a majority in the state house again in 2012. Turnout is always lower in non-presidential midterms and Republicans currently hold like 4-5 state house seats that are D+1-4.

2010 was basically Republican's greatest opportunity and the best they could do was tie the house (compare that to before 2006 where they won outright majorities). Demographics are swinging our way as well in Salem and Bend.

2010 redistricting basically just maintained our existing maps for another 10 years. We may get a 6th seat in Congress next time depending on population growth.

I am disappointed they tied the chamber though. They held up some good legislation last session.

Also, it actually turns out to be 8, not 4-5: http://dpo.org/news/pr/2012-03-06/strong-candidates-across-map-oregon-democrats-are-poised-win-big-2012-legislative

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http://www.oregonvotes.org/doc/voterresources/registration/feb12.pdf

[greenforest32]

I don't know if we'll ever reach parity. The states have a lot in common but if you go into the details they are different (just as an example, Eastern Oregon is more Republican/conservative than Eastern Washington).

Thought this was interesting:

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/oregons-regional-employment/





http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/portland-seattle-and-the-rest/

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[greenforest32]

I expect we'll be over 50% support for gay marriage by June 2012 (1 year after PPP showed us at 48%) and only going up from there, but I thought this was an interesting article.

http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-19211-the_10_year_engagement.html

"The 10-Year Engagement: President Obama has “evolved” to support gay marriage. Oregon isn’t there yet."

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Good old theocrats:

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http://oregonfamilycouncil.org/issues