NH Primary: Gingrich catches Romney!

[CultureKing]

No... NO!!! It's all happening too soon. At this rate Newt will start falling just in time for Romney to take advantage of the situation. He was meant to start his rise in the polls in late December.

[Oakvale]

You'd think people had never heard of 'outliers'. Every other poll shows Romney comfortably leading with around 40% of the vote in NH, so, uh...

[NVGonzalez]

I'll wait for a second poll to confirm before I start cutting my wrists.

[Likely Voter]

The winner of IA will consolidate the conservative vote in NH. And if Huntsman can grab enough of the moderate vote, with Paul grabbing his Libertarians, then Romney could face the perfect storm. Anything short of a big win for him will look like a loss, following the loss of IA. He needs 40%+ going into SC.

[Gustaf]

This also makes it clear- whoever the initial frontrunner is will fall. Maybe Romney can pick back up, but Presidents Dean, Giuliani, and Hillary Clinton aren't bettin those odds.

Kerry was the "frontrunner by default" many months before Dean became frontrunner.  And McCain was the frontrunner before Giuliani was.

Yeah, I'd say the opposite actually. The last couple of cycles we've seen a lot of a frontrunner losing a lot towards the end of the year preceding the election year but then coming back in time for the actual primaries.

[© tweed]

Kerry was never a 'frontrunner'... he may have been the odds-on favorite but there is a significant difference.  the Dem race was wide open in 04 as it often is

[Nichlemn]

In light of this poll, Romney plummets on Intrade to only 69.5% to win the nomination.

[Mehmentum]

I'll wait for the next NH poll before passing judgment. 

[Mr. Morden]

Kerry was never a 'frontrunner'... he may have been the odds-on favorite but there is a significant difference.  the Dem race was wide open in 04 as it often is

That seems like a semantic quibble.  How is frontrunner different from odds on favorite?

[© tweed]

Kerry was never a 'frontrunner'... he may have been the odds-on favorite but there is a significant difference.  the Dem race was wide open in 04 as it often is

That seems like a semantic quibble.  How is frontrunner different from odds on favorite?

it's a matter of degrees.  frontrunner is a media designation.  frontrunners include Gore and Bush 2000, Gore 2004 until Dec. 2002, Clinton 2008, and so on.  meanwhile while Michael Dukakis may have been the odds on favorite in 1988 and Paul Tsongas in 1992 and so on they never quite got to that "who will emerge to challenge ____?" plateau.

[Simfan34]

I hope this is true.

[Wonkish1]

This poll clearly is an outlier (Magellan is one of those famed internal polling companies that get employed by house candidates during midterms), but lets be honest Newt is rising in New Hampshire. I'm expecting the next *reputable* poll to be Romney up by about ~10.


As to some of the comments about how organization is less important today. Well kind of duh! Each cycle is going to be less about the machine politics of yesteryear and more about message, marketing, etc. because the internet, the 24 hour news networks, and the shear number of debates are changing the way campaigns are run. I believe the common reference to this type of occurrence is that campaigns are becoming increasingly "democratized"(as defined by not needing as much money and size). I don't think there are many people that would argue that is a bad thing.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

it's a matter of degrees.  frontrunner is a media designation.  frontrunners include Gore and Bush 2000, Gore 2004 until Dec. 2002, Clinton 2008, and so on.  meanwhile while Michael Dukakis may have been the odds on favorite in 1988 and Paul Tsongas in 1992 and so on they never quite got to that "who will emerge to challenge ____?" plateau.

Tsongas was never the favorite in '92. Or the frontrunner. He was the kind of candidate, usually one-note or regional, that has success early on (ala Forbes/Buchanan '96, Huck '08) but is not given strong odds of finally prevailing. Even when he was winning primaries, pundits assumed the eventual nominee would be Clinton or, if Clinton self-destructed, some heavyweight non-candidate (Cuomo, Bentson etc). It's not unlike Cain leading polls for a few weeks but being completely written off by the press and the prediction markets. Essentially, a lot of the ferment that used to happen in the actual primary process, including flirtations with unlikely candidates, has been moved up to the pre-primaries. I'm sure this is the Internet's fault somehow.

Difference between a frontrunner and a favorite: I'd say a frontrunner has a lot of visible advantages (high name recognition, national polling lead, perception of strong fundraising ability) while a favorite's advantages are more subterranean and insider-y (intraparty support, better consultants, favorable primary calendar, actual strong fundraising ability etc). The latter's advantages have proven to be more important than the former's. Like Clinton in '08 was a frontrunner but Obama was at least a co-favorite; Dukakis '88 and Clinton '92 (post-Cuomo) were both favorites but not really the frontrunners until about the middle of the primaries.

[memphis]

Jesus. Mittens needs at least a 10 point thrashing in NH to maintain any credibility. Especially after he gets his rear handed to him in Iowa. Like I said another thread, it is amusing to watch the. GOP throw away success with both hands.

[Smid]

It's not unlike Cain leading polls for a few weeks but being completely written off by the press and the prediction markets. Essentially, a lot of the ferment that used to happen in the actual primary process, including flirtations with unlikely candidates, has been moved up to the pre-primaries. I'm sure this is the Internet's fault somehow.

Lindsay Tanner discussed the shortening of political attention spans as part of the Sideshow Syndrome. This then leads to a higher number of voters uncommitted to a party (or in your primary system, a candidate), who then shift around dramatically based on media coverage.