Hypothetical: Europe's PIGS Start to Default in Mid-September 2012...

[Politico]

...and, with it, we have another global financial crisis that is perhaps worse than the one in September 2008. What does the Electoral College end up looking like in November 2012? (Hint: Imagine Bush running for re-election in 2008)

My prediction (Against Romney):

Too Close to Call: 40 (MA, NY)
Obama:                44 (RI, VT, MD, DC, IL, HI)
Romney:               454

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ah, the ultimate GOP electoral fantasy... the world economy goes completely to ***t.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I think we're headed towards a resounding rejection of the Republican Party's record, ideology, and campaign scare tactics. I think it's painfully obvious that there's really no way anymore than 40-45% of the country wants John McCain anywhere near the White House after his erratic behavior the past few weeks, his poor VP pick of the wholly unqualified Sarah "The $150,000 Woman" Palin, and after eight years of Republican rule under Bush (Who is better off today than they were in 2000 in any way, shape or form? The classic Republican question shows that the current Republican record has been an unprecedented failure). For days, weeks, months and years, everybody will be saying quietly to themselves, "WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THIS COMING? IT WAS SO OBVIOUS!":

Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)

lol

[Wonkish1]

Ah, the ultimate GOP electoral fantasy... the world economy goes completely to ***t.

I sure as hell am not rooting for that and I doubt many others are either.

You may notice I point out that its a possibility when I comment on it, I never, ever have given any notion that it would be a good thing.

[redcommander]

I think we're headed towards a resounding rejection of the Republican Party's record, ideology, and campaign scare tactics. I think it's painfully obvious that there's really no way anymore than 40-45% of the country wants John McCain anywhere near the White House after his erratic behavior the past few weeks, his poor VP pick of the wholly unqualified Sarah "The $150,000 Woman" Palin, and after eight years of Republican rule under Bush (Who is better off today than they were in 2000 in any way, shape or form? The classic Republican question shows that the current Republican record has been an unprecedented failure). For days, weeks, months and years, everybody will be saying quietly to themselves, "WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THIS COMING? IT WAS SO OBVIOUS!":

Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)

lol

The landslide prediction was correct, just the margin was too big.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I think we're headed towards a resounding rejection of the Republican Party's record, ideology, and campaign scare tactics. I think it's painfully obvious that there's really no way anymore than 40-45% of the country wants John McCain anywhere near the White House after his erratic behavior the past few weeks, his poor VP pick of the wholly unqualified Sarah "The $150,000 Woman" Palin, and after eight years of Republican rule under Bush (Who is better off today than they were in 2000 in any way, shape or form? The classic Republican question shows that the current Republican record has been an unprecedented failure). For days, weeks, months and years, everybody will be saying quietly to themselves, "WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THIS COMING? IT WAS SO OBVIOUS!":

Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)

lol

The landslide prediction was correct, just the margin was too big.

That's probably the nicest way you could of put it. 

[NVGonzalez]

The Republicans react towards this scenario.

[Politico]

I think we're headed towards a resounding rejection of the Republican Party's record, ideology, and campaign scare tactics. I think it's painfully obvious that there's really no way anymore than 40-45% of the country wants John McCain anywhere near the White House after his erratic behavior the past few weeks, his poor VP pick of the wholly unqualified Sarah "The $150,000 Woman" Palin, and after eight years of Republican rule under Bush (Who is better off today than they were in 2000 in any way, shape or form? The classic Republican question shows that the current Republican record has been an unprecedented failure). For days, weeks, months and years, everybody will be saying quietly to themselves, "WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THIS COMING? IT WAS SO OBVIOUS!":

Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)

lol

I am flattered that you're digging up my ancient posts. I obviously underestimated the "racist" factor in that prediction (I suspect my prediction would have held up had Hillary Clinton been the Democrat). I was not that far off in the popular vote, though. Plus, you can no longer call me a GOP hack, right?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No... just a melodramatic hack, regardless of which party has not done what you wanted them to do.

[Politico]

Ah, the ultimate GOP electoral fantasy... the world economy goes completely to ***t.

I sure as hell am not rooting for that and I doubt many others are either.

You may notice I point out that its a possibility when I comment on it, I never, ever have given any notion that it would be a good thing.

This.

Plus, some folks realize that the s**t hitting the fan in the EU is no longer a question of if, but when...

[Politico]

No... just a melodramatic hack, regardless of which party has not done what you wanted them to do.

I am still a registered Democrat, despite a rightward swing in opinion on numerous economic issues over the past three years, and nobody can change the fact that Mitt Romney is the first Republican I have ever supported for president.

If Barack Obama's skin color kept him from destroying McCain in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, imagine what will happen to Obama's re-election campaign if a financial crisis happens on his watch...

[Yelnoc]

I doubt it can be staved off that long.  The more interesting scenario is what if the defaults happen this winter-spring?  The economy is still in the sh**tter by November, but it appears to be getting a little better.  The republicans of course nominate a crazy, but Americans Elect somehow found themselves with a credible candidate.  Then what?

[redcommander]

I doubt it can be staved off that long.  The more interesting scenario is what if the defaults happen this winter-spring?  The economy is still in the sh**tter by November, but it appears to be getting a little better.  The republicans of course nominate a crazy, but Americans Elect somehow found themselves with a credible candidate.  Then what?

If the global economy crashes during the Republican primaries, I highly doubt Republicans are going to take their chances with one of the crazies or red meat types, and will nominate Romney because they realize he is the most capable to handle the crisis.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Thing is, a PIGS default in mid=September 2012 would not necessarily lead to a GOP landslide in November.  Obama seems to have decided to campaign on the theme "We've got things to do now and the Republicans are refusing to let them be done."  If that theme ends up resonating with the public (very unlikely absent a major crisis, but with a major crisis such as the one given, it would have a chance of doing so)  then it could be that not only does Obama retain the White House, but the Democrats keep the Senate and regain the House.  Not a likely possibility, but it is at least plausible unlike Politico's map.  Obama is no Mondale and Romney is certainly no Reagan.  Even in the worst of Republican landslides, Obama does much better than in Politico's map.

[Mehmentum]

If the PIGS cause a collapse of world economy.  Obama could also take an aggressive stance not toward the Republicans but toward Europe.

Perhaps Obama could rally Americans using nationalism and anger toward banks and Europe.  We'll want to feel good about ourselves and blame others for our problems, and Europe will be the perfect target in the situation that Politico described.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, I'm not so sure that a double-dip recession obviously caused by a European collapse would completely doom Obama. It's not like he has any control at all over what's happening in the Eurozone. Now, if things don't really get any better but don't get drastically worse, and in turn the American economy continues to slump, that would hurt him. But the political ramifications for Obama of some big, noticeable catastrophic European collapse is hard to predict.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I think we're headed towards a resounding rejection of the Republican Party's record, ideology, and campaign scare tactics. I think it's painfully obvious that there's really no way anymore than 40-45% of the country wants John McCain anywhere near the White House after his erratic behavior the past few weeks, his poor VP pick of the wholly unqualified Sarah "The $150,000 Woman" Palin, and after eight years of Republican rule under Bush (Who is better off today than they were in 2000 in any way, shape or form? The classic Republican question shows that the current Republican record has been an unprecedented failure). For days, weeks, months and years, everybody will be saying quietly to themselves, "WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THIS COMING? IT WAS SO OBVIOUS!":

Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)

lol

I am flattered that you're digging up my ancient posts. I obviously underestimated the "racist" factor in that prediction (I suspect my prediction would have held up had Hillary Clinton been the Democrat). I was not that far off in the popular vote, though. Plus, you can no longer call me a GOP hack, right?

I never called you a GOP hack.  Like Polnut said, you're a drama queen nevermind whatever political leanings you have.  

And lol you can't say you weren't off that much on the popular vote.  If you were off by 1 or 2%, you would be close.  You were off by about 6%, while most of the pollsters you ignored were, you know, actually correct.  Why do you even bother posting as if you're an expert?  Hell, my prediction overestimated Obama's national MOV by 1% and only got 2 states wrong while yours got 12.  Does that give me the right to spam a board with multiple threads about whatever the hell I believe?  

[Politico]

I think we're headed towards a resounding rejection of the Republican Party's record, ideology, and campaign scare tactics. I think it's painfully obvious that there's really no way anymore than 40-45% of the country wants John McCain anywhere near the White House after his erratic behavior the past few weeks, his poor VP pick of the wholly unqualified Sarah "The $150,000 Woman" Palin, and after eight years of Republican rule under Bush (Who is better off today than they were in 2000 in any way, shape or form? The classic Republican question shows that the current Republican record has been an unprecedented failure). For days, weeks, months and years, everybody will be saying quietly to themselves, "WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THIS COMING? IT WAS SO OBVIOUS!":

Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)

lol

I am flattered that you're digging up my ancient posts. I obviously underestimated the "racist" factor in that prediction (I suspect my prediction would have held up had Hillary Clinton been the Democrat). I was not that far off in the popular vote, though. Plus, you can no longer call me a GOP hack, right?

I never called you a GOP hack.  Like Polnut said, you're a drama queen nevermind whatever political leanings you have.  

I prefer controversial over melodramatic. Some may call it trolling

[pbrower2a]

Mid-September 2012? Too late to make a difference if Americans think that such defaults have no relevance to their lives.

[Politico]

Mid-September 2012? Too late to make a difference if Americans think that such defaults have no relevance to their lives.

It will seem very relevant when the stock market is in the toilet and firms are laying off en masse again.

[pbrower2a]

Mid-September 2012? Too late to make a difference if Americans think that such defaults have no relevance to their lives.

It will seem very relevant when the stock market is in the toilet and firms are laying off en masse again.

The lag between an economic downturn and mass layoffs is much longer than five weeks. It's more like five months unless business entities literally go under. June 2012, yes. Mid-September, no. 

[The Vorlon]

"start" to default?

Greece is paying back 50% of the face value, and the terms have been extended...

I think "default" by any sane definition has already begun, the are just calling it something else to avoid the credit default swaps from cutting in.

[Mr.Phips]

Mid-September 2012? Too late to make a difference if Americans think that such defaults have no relevance to their lives.

It will seem very relevant when the stock market is in the toilet and firms are laying off en masse again.

The lag between an economic downturn and mass layoffs is much longer than five weeks. It's more like five months unless business entities literally go under. June 2012, yes. Mid-September, no. 

Job losses usually begin the minute the economy goes into a recession.  When the recession started in December 2007, job losses followed in January. 

[NCeriale]

I think we're headed towards a resounding rejection of the Republican Party's record, ideology, and campaign scare tactics. I think it's painfully obvious that there's really no way anymore than 40-45% of the country wants John McCain anywhere near the White House after his erratic behavior the past few weeks, his poor VP pick of the wholly unqualified Sarah "The $150,000 Woman" Palin, and after eight years of Republican rule under Bush (Who is better off today than they were in 2000 in any way, shape or form? The classic Republican question shows that the current Republican record has been an unprecedented failure). For days, weeks, months and years, everybody will be saying quietly to themselves, "WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THIS COMING? IT WAS SO OBVIOUS!":

Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)

lol

I am flattered that you're digging up my ancient posts. I obviously underestimated the "racist" factor in that prediction (I suspect my prediction would have held up had Hillary Clinton been the Democrat). I was not that far off in the popular vote, though. Plus, you can no longer call me a GOP hack, right?

I never called you a GOP hack.  Like Polnut said, you're a drama queen nevermind whatever political leanings you have.  

I prefer controversial over melodramatic. Some may call it trolling

I'm sorry but South Carolina wouldn't vote for a Democrat if the Republican was Obama.

[BigSkyBob]

Hypothetically, the defaults will occur earlier than that, or the defaults, magically, will be pushed back until after election day.