Will Ron Paul make a third party bid?

[Yelnoc]

This presidential campaign is Paul's last hurrah.  He is retiring from Congress at the end of his term one way or the other and will obviously be too old to make another go in 2016.  What are the chances that, after the GOP primary, Paul carries his campaign on as an independent or as the libertarian party candidate?  There is no love lost between Paul and the Republican establishment; the only person that will be involved in this decision is Paul and his family.  One can also view it as the circle coming to a completion; his first presidential bid, after all, was as the Libertarian party candidate.

Americans Elect gives him the opportunity to run as a third party candidate without having to worry about ballot access and with a starting war chest in the millions.  I would not be surprised if he ran on the AE platform with the Libertarian Party endorsement (and possibly as the libertarian candidate in states that Americans Elect for whatever reason does not obtain ballot access).

Do you think this is possible?  And if so, what chances do you give Paul of winning states (especially if the sovereign debt bubble in Europe pops, sparking a Chinese hard landing, another global credit crunch, and a harsh recession in the US)?

[Oakvale]

Doubt it. Does he really have the money to run a national campaign?

I have to admit that I don't understand your fixation on "Americans Elect", Yelnoc. It's just a boring centrist hack group that'll end up endorsing some eyewateringly 'moderate hero' ticket with Michael Bloomberg on it. The sequel to the irrelevant "Unity '08" fiasco.

And, no, obviously Paul would win no states. He might get in the low double-digits in some - about ten percent in Montana or similar supposedly libertarian states is possible, I guess.

[Yelnoc]

Doubt it. Does he really have the money to run a national campaign?

I have to admit that I don't understand your fixation on "Americans Elect", Yelnoc. It's just a boring centrist hack group that'll end up endorsing some eyewateringly 'moderate hero' ticket with Michael Bloomberg on it. The sequel to the irrelevant "Unity '08" fiasco.

And, no, obviously Paul would win no states. He might get in the low double-digits in some - about ten percent in Montana or similar supposedly libertarian states is possible, I guess.

My fixation?  It can easily be co-opted by Greenpeace types, AnonymousLulzKiddies, or Paulites (or maybe centrists will hold onto their boring Bloomber-esque candidate, I doubt it).  The point is, whatever fringe group take control will have ballot access to all 50 states and a starting war chest of several million dollars.  That means the candidate will be able to hit the ground running.  Add in a figure like Paul with national name recognition and a cult following and, suddenly, you have a three-man race.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Paul wont derail his sons career. Rand is looking at 2016 (assuming Obama gets another term), and needs the support in the primaries. If Paul runs, he will split the vote, and thus spoil it for us, allowing Obama another term. Ron Paul is smart enough to realize this. If he did run 3rd party, he would get the Libertarian and Constitution nominations/endorsements, and with his moneybomb strategy, he easily can raise enough money. He will likely win at least Montana or Idaho.

[Bull Moose Base]

Paul wont derail his sons career. Rand is looking at 2016 (assuming Obama gets another term), and needs the support in the primaries. If Paul runs, he will split the vote, and thus spoil it for us, allowing Obama another term. Ron Paul is smart enough to realize this. If he did run 3rd party, he would get the Libertarian and Constitution nominations/endorsements, and with his moneybomb strategy, he easily can raise enough money. He will likely win at least Montana or Idaho.

But Rand was in an even more precarious position in 2008, not even favored for the 2010 senate nomination, and it didn't stop Ron Paul from endorsing the Constitution ticket.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Paul wont derail his sons career. Rand is looking at 2016 (assuming Obama gets another term), and needs the support in the primaries. If Paul runs, he will split the vote, and thus spoil it for us, allowing Obama another term. Ron Paul is smart enough to realize this. If he did run 3rd party, he would get the Libertarian and Constitution nominations/endorsements, and with his moneybomb strategy, he easily can raise enough money. He will likely win at least Montana or Idaho.

But Rand was in an even more precarious position in 2008, not even favored for the 2010 senate nomination, and it didn't stop Ron Paul from endorsing the Constitution ticket.

In 2008 the Tea Party did not exist. In 2009, it did. Rands chances shot up. He still is in a precarious position, he very well could lose reelection to the Senate if the party moves away from the Tea Party.

[LastVoter]

Paul wont derail his sons career. Rand is looking at 2016 (assuming Obama gets another term), and needs the support in the primaries. If Paul runs, he will split the vote, and thus spoil it for us, allowing Obama another term. Ron Paul is smart enough to realize this. If he did run 3rd party, he would get the Libertarian and Constitution nominations/endorsements, and with his moneybomb strategy, he easily can raise enough money. He will likely win at least Montana or Idaho.

He doesn't really care about Republicans winning as much as he cares about his ideals which are a  blend of Paleoconservatism/Libertarianism.

[TJ in Oregon]

No, Ron Paul can only succeed ideologically by having his ideas become mainstream in the Republican Party and running as an independent would mess up the goodwill he's managed to build over the last four years.

[Eraserhead]

I hope so.

[All Along The Watchtower]

How'd that work out in 1988?

[Badger]

Nope. Any implulse he'd have to go out with a 3rd party bang is stopped by not wanting to S#*t all over Rand's rising career.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

No, Ron Paul can only succeed ideologically by having his ideas become mainstream in the Republican Party and running as an independent would mess up the goodwill he's managed to build over the last four years.

What goodwill? He's often called a crank by the mainstream media.

I think he might as well, if it's a last shot I don't think he'd really care about his son's political future (he's still against insiders I'm assuming). I'd  hope it be independent, I don't know much about Americans Elect. Would he win states? Maybe, anything is possible but probably not, think Ross Perot numbers.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

How'd that work out in 1988?

Better then most

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

How'd that work out in 1988?

431,750 votes, or 0.47%. According to this site.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

How'd that work out in 1988?

431,750 votes, or 0.47%. According to this site.

Did he not get 3-5% of the vote in Alaska?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

How'd that work out in 1988?

431,750 votes, or 0.47%. According to this site.

Did he not get 3-5% of the vote in Alaska?

I posted his national stats. In Alaska:

5,484 votes, or 2.74%