Underlying trend

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

NJ-2:  GOP stronghold.  No chance for Dems.

actually, Gore won that district, I don't know about Kerry, but since Bush's gains in NJ probably won't carry over to future years, this district is winnable once LoBiondo retires.

Well, here's the 2000 results in NJ:



...and here are the 2004 results:



Given that here are the congressional districts:



...it would seem to me that Kerry did quite comparably to Gore in that CD, and even if he didn't win it due to that one county now going Republican, it was close.

first the district's boundaries have changed since then (although not very much in this case)

second, the map doesn't show population or very well how the totals ended up. Bush won Cape May county this time by 14 points, he won it by 3 in 2000. Salem is the county that switched, but it's not too heavily populated. Since Kerry still did fairly strong in Atlantic, Burlington and Glouchester counties there's a good chance he won it, but it was by 1-2 points either way depending regardless of who won. Gore won the district by 14 points. Still, it's a swing district.

[KEmperor]

You are overanalysing this.

[Keystone Phil]

read my edit to see what I meant by far right Republican.

The reason he considered voting for a Socialist was because he was disgusted by Street and didn't want to vote for a Republican. Is supersoulty far right for voting for the Constitution Party for Senate? Voting for a third party candidate as a protest vote doesn't mean you agree with all their extremist views.

Yes I am further right than Brown but that doesn't mean I couldn't win. As I said earlier, I would not have the edge in the race but a Dean Democrat wouldn't have a that much of an edge in the election.

BacardiLimon's vote for the Republican would have been a vote for a liberal Republican who would agree with him more than a Socialist would. Who to vote for? Liberal or socialist?

Supersoulty is different. He was given the choice between two liberals and a conservative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2000 Washington Post/CQ profile (these are great BTW) of NJ-2:

NEW JERSEY 2 : South - Atlantic City; Vineland

One of the state's most politically and economically diverse districts, the 2nd stretches from the Philadelphia suburbs in Gloucester County to the beach communities of Ocean City and Cape May. This is a Republican-leaning district, and locals generally support smaller government and oppose gun control. However, Democrats have fared well in statewide elections and have a stronghold in south Cumberland County and in some of the district's more industrial towns.

The western corner of the 2nd is largely rural Salem County, home of a nuclear energy plant run by the Public Service Enterprise Group. The district's center includes Cumberland and Atlantic counties, where farmers' markets and small agrarian communities grow peaches, blueberries, cranberries and soybeans. South Cumberland County is the 2nd's most industrial area, although the economy is shifting from glass and plastic manufacturing to service. The area has been plagued with higher unemployment than the rest of the district.

Tourism is the cash crop in shore communities, where environmental and economic issues are one and the same; the local economy was hit hard when medical waste washed ashore in the late 1980s. The 2nd includes one of the nation's most well-known gambling resorts, Atlantic City, where hotels and casinos create huge numbers of jobs, but where the poorer parts of the city are ravaged by crime and urban blight. Nearby, the Delaware River's busy port and the nation's second-largest petroleum center also contribute to the economy

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think I realized the Republican strategy in PA13 last night, and why it's not likely to work, and that PA13 is probably not winnable for a Republican now.

in PA13 the Republicans have to please two groups of people who are almost impossible to please both at the same time, yet are both voting Democratic now. They are Montco residents and NE Phillians. Run a populist candidate and you turn off Montco, run a social moderate and you turn off NE Philly.

So the Republican strat in the last two elections was simple. Run a Montco-appealing candidate and then try to make inroads into NE Philly on the Section 8 issue.

Yet it clearly didn't work. I don't see how the Republicans could pick it up now.

[TeePee4Prez]

read my edit to see what I meant by far right Republican.

The reason he considered voting for a Socialist was because he was disgusted by Street and didn't want to vote for a Republican. Is supersoulty far right for voting for the Constitution Party for Senate? Voting for a third party candidate as a protest vote doesn't mean you agree with all their extremist views.

Thanks for sticking up for me.  I actually voted Katz in the end, but like I told Keystone in the past, I needed about a gallon of Maalox afterwards.  The reason I voted Katz because he was in no way tied to Bush-Santorum-DeLay.  The Street Administration was one of the most crooked in city history and I thought the bugging twist was just that- a twist.  My Katz vote was basically and "anybody but Street" vote and I felt my vote could best contribute towards Street's removal.  I don't care what political party you are, you don't ignore 1/4 of your city in Northeast Philadelphia.  As J.J, pointed out before, his street gets plowed.  Guess what?  Even Castor  and Rhawn Aves., SEPTA/snow emergency routes werent't even touched during many storms.  Street is also trying to gut many services in this part of the city in particular.  Despite our local taxes, Street cuts services and gives lucrative contracts to his friends.  Other parts of the city are lacking services as well, but the NE gets hit particularly hard.       

[J. J.]

[The Street Administration was one of the most crooked in city history and I thought the bugging twist was just that- a twist. 

Ah, could you cite some examples please.  I seem to remember the President of the FOP being removed for accepting some bribes from people in the Rendell administration?

[Keystone Phil]

Yet it clearly didn't work. I don't see how the Republicans could pick it up now.

Picking up PA 13 will be harder now. I am willing to admit that.

[Keystone Phil]

[The Street Administration was one of the most crooked in city history and I thought the bugging twist was just that- a twist. 

Ah, could you cite some examples please. 

J.J. come on. Street has ignored the Northeast. He is a failure of a Mayor. And the way he spun that bugging incident was an absolute disgrace.

[J. J.]

[The Street Administration was one of the most crooked in city history and I thought the bugging twist was just that- a twist. 

Ah, could you cite some examples please. 

J.J. come on. Street has ignored the Northeast. He is a failure of a Mayor. And the way he spun that bugging incident was an absolute disgrace.

I'm not addressing the bugging incident.  Even the investigation does not seem to be too tied to city operations.

You saying he's a failure does not make it so.  I'm not seeing the Street Administration as being any more "crooked" that the Rendell administration.

On the other hand, I have seen improvements in city operations and services in my neighborhood and Germantown.

[Keystone Phil]

[The Street Administration was one of the most crooked in city history and I thought the bugging twist was just that- a twist. 

Ah, could you cite some examples please. 

J.J. come on. Street has ignored the Northeast. He is a failure of a Mayor. And the way he spun that bugging incident was an absolute disgrace.

I'm not addressing the bugging incident.  Even the investigation does not seem to be too tied to city operations.

You saying he's a failure does not make it so.  I'm not seeing the Street Administration as being any more "crooked" that the Rendell administration.

On the other hand, I have seen improvements in city operations and services in my neighborhood and Germantown.

I'm no fan of Rendell but even I have to admit that he was better than Street. Northeast Philadelphia is treated like a totally different city by this Mayor. He's corrupt and the sad thing is that he got away with it in the '03 election.

[J. J.]

I'm no fan of Rendell but even I have to admit that he was better than Street. Northeast Philadelphia is treated like a totally different city by this Mayor. He's corrupt and the sad thing is that he got away with it in the '03 election.

How is he corrupt?  Compared even to Rendell (who I would not classify as corrupt), I would classify Street as honest.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm no fan of Rendell but even I have to admit that he was better than Street. Northeast Philadelphia is treated like a totally different city by this Mayor. He's corrupt and the sad thing is that he got away with it in the '03 election.

How is he corrupt?  Compared even to Rendell (who I would not classify as corrupt), I would classify Street as honest.

The city contracts and the way that he spun the bugging incident is enough of a reason to say Street is not an honest individual.

[J. J.]

The city contracts and the way that he spun the bugging incident is enough of a reason to say Street is not an honest individual.

The bugging incident was not of his doing.  He's in the middle of a campaign and a bug is discovered in his office?  Everyone jumped to the conlusion in the first hours that it was Katz; it was "spun" that it wasn't the Katz campaign.

As I've indicated, the President of the FOP under Rendell was convicted of receiving a bribe from city officials in return for support on a contract.

[Keystone Phil]

The city contracts and the way that he spun the bugging incident is enough of a reason to say Street is not an honest individual.

The bugging incident was not of his doing.  He's in the middle of a campaign and a bug is discovered in his office?  Everyone jumped to the conlusion in the first hours that it was Katz; it was "spun" that it wasn't the Katz campaign.

As I've indicated, the President of the FOP under Rendell was convicted of receiving a bribe from city officials in return for support on a contract.

Street and his pals made it seem like Katz and the GOP were responsible for planting the bug. Congressman Brady admitted in an interview earlier this year that he did spin the news to the Democrats' advantage.

Let me make it clear that I am not defending Rendell. I'm not a fan of his but I will say that if I had the choice between him and Street, I'd go with Rendell. I don't think he was a great mayor (as some would suggest) but I feel that I could trust him more than Street and I don't think the Northeast was totally ignored during his time in office.

[J. J.]

The city contracts and the way that he spun the bugging incident is enough of a reason to say Street is not an honest individual.

The bugging incident was not of his doing.  He's in the middle of a campaign and a bug is discovered in his office?  Everyone jumped to the conlusion in the first hours that it was Katz; it was "spun" that it wasn't the Katz campaign.

As I've indicated, the President of the FOP under Rendell was convicted of receiving a bribe from city officials in return for support on a contract.

Street and his pals made it seem like Katz and the GOP were responsible for planting the bug. Congressman Brady admitted in an interview earlier this year that he did spin the news to the Democrats' advantage.

The Press did that, initially, suggesting a possible link with the Katz campaign; that was in the first hours of the breaking story.  Almost everyone nationally commenting on it thought the timing of the Federal District doing it was a huge mistake.  The spin, such as it was, was not much beyond that.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Let me make it clear that I am not defending Rendell. I'm not a fan of his but I will say that if I had the choice between him and Street, I'd go with Rendell. I don't think he was a great mayor (as some would suggest) but I feel that I could trust him more than Street and I don't think the Northeast was totally ignored during his time in office.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bacardi called the Street Administration "one of the most crooked in city history," and you have called him "corrupt."  You've also said that you feel that you could "trust" Rendell more.

This is how "corrupt" the Street administration is.  As far I know, he has never been the "target" of any grand jury investigation or targeted by the Federal Prosecutor.  That doesn't exactly scream "corruption" to me.

As for trust, I can think of two scandals involving the city during the Rendell Administration (and I bet there are more).  The FOP contract incident, which led to the FOP President being convicted; that involved the city giving him things personally.  The second was 39th District police scandal, where nearly 100 drug convictions were overturned because the police planted evidence.  That led to convictions as well, of the now ex-police officers and several million dollars in compensation to the exonerated victims.

Now, Rendell didn't have anything directly to do with those, more so least with the second, but they were part of his administration.  I'm far from convinced that anything relating to the contracts is any closer to Street than these were to Rendell.

As for the Northeast, I don't travel there on a daily or weekly basis, but I do in North Philadelphia and in Germantown, and I've seen TV report from South Philadelphia.  The streets are being plowed there.  From everything I've seen, Street is doing the job in these other neighborhood.

[Keystone Phil]

Street and his team spun the news, trying to blame the national GOP, the President and Katz.

The Northeast is ignored by this Mayor. I just love how he calls himself "The Neighborhood Mayor" too. What a joke.

That's pretty much all I have to saw on this matter since we seem to be repeating our lines in every post.

[J. J.]

Street and his team spun the news, trying to blame the national GOP, the President and Katz.

The Northeast is ignored by this Mayor. I just love how he calls himself "The Neighborhood Mayor" too. What a joke.

That's pretty much all I have to saw on this matter since we seem to be repeating our lines in every post.

Street is the "The Neighborhood Mayor" in my neighborhood.  Here and in Germantown, he has delivered.  Now, I can't tell you what he's like in Northeast, but he has delivered in these other two sections.

I am going to call both you and Bacardi on something that you have said; you called him "corrupt" and Bacardi said that his administration is "one of the most currupt in city history."  I'll hold you to same standard I hold jFRAUD to, where is your evidence?

Now, I didn't like the spin, because I don't like spin.  I also don't like the implication that the FBI was investigating Street, which they were not.  By putting that bug in, they left that implication.  Had the prosecutor's office issued an immediate statement that Street was not the target of an investigation, it might have been a one day story.

Now, I do not think that there was some sort of Republican conspiracy involving the planting of the device.  I do, however, think there was a great deal of stupidity in planting it and not immediately announcing that its target was not Street.

[Keystone Phil]

Street and his team spun the news, trying to blame the national GOP, the President and Katz.

The Northeast is ignored by this Mayor. I just love how he calls himself "The Neighborhood Mayor" too. What a joke.

That's pretty much all I have to saw on this matter since we seem to be repeating our lines in every post.

Street is the "The Neighborhood Mayor" in my neighborhood.  Here and in Germantown, he has delivered.  Now, I can't tell you what he's like in Northeast, but he has delivered in these other two sections.

I am going to call both you and Bacardi on something that you have said; you called him "corrupt" and Bacardi said that his administration is "one of the most currupt in city history."  I'll hold you to same standard I hold jFRAUD to, where is your evidence?

Now, I didn't like the spin, because I don't like spin.  I also don't like the implication that the FBI was investigating Street, which they were not.  By putting that bug in, they left that implication.  Had the prosecutor's office issued an immediate statement that Street was not the target of an investigation, it might have been a one day story.

Now, I do not think that there was some sort of Republican conspiracy involving the planting of the device.  I do, however, think there was a great deal of stupidity in planting it and not immediately announcing that its target was not Street.

He doesn't deliver here. He must think we are a seperate city.

As for my evidence, we do know that the Mayor gave his brother a nice little city contract for the airport, right? Wasn't there some controversy surrounding that? Then we have his connections with Ron White and all the other mysterious activities regarding other city contracts. He surrounds himself with corrupt people and in my opinion he is a corrupt person. While this has nothing to do with corruption, I thought I might as well bring up the Mayor's well known quote: "The Brothers and sisters are running the city." What a leader.

[J. J.]

Street and his team spun the news, trying to blame the national GOP, the President and Katz.

The Northeast is ignored by this Mayor. I just love how he calls himself "The Neighborhood Mayor" too. What a joke.

That's pretty much all I have to saw on this matter since we seem to be repeating our lines in every post.

Street is the "The Neighborhood Mayor" in my neighborhood.  Here and in Germantown, he has delivered.  Now, I can't tell you what he's like in Northeast, but he has delivered in these other two sections.

I am going to call both you and Bacardi on something that you have said; you called him "corrupt" and Bacardi said that his administration is "one of the most currupt in city history."  I'll hold you to same standard I hold jFRAUD to, where is your evidence?

Now, I didn't like the spin, because I don't like spin.  I also don't like the implication that the FBI was investigating Street, which they were not.  By putting that bug in, they left that implication.  Had the prosecutor's office issued an immediate statement that Street was not the target of an investigation, it might have been a one day story.

Now, I do not think that there was some sort of Republican conspiracy involving the planting of the device.  I do, however, think there was a great deal of stupidity in planting it and not immediately announcing that its target was not Street.

He doesn't deliver here. He must think we are a seperate city.

As for my evidence, we do know that the Mayor gave his brother a nice little city contract for the airport, right? Wasn't there some controversy surrounding that? Then we have his connections with Ron White and all the other mysterious activities regarding other city contracts. He surrounds himself with corrupt people and in my opinion he is a corrupt person. While this has nothing to do with corruption, I thought I might as well bring up the Mayor's well known quote: "The Brothers and sisters are running the city." What a leader.

We know that his brother has a contract, but there is no evidence that it was improperly awarded; we also that a number of city official do have relatives that work for the city (the Inquirer did a recent story).   I take it that you don't feel that simply being related to someone should disqualify someone from working for the City?

We know that Ron White, an attorney, did legal work for the city, but contracted work; he wasn't part of the administration.  The case which is the origin of this, the private school run by an Islamic Iman, dealt with federal funds federally administered; that's why the FBI is involved.  That isn't connected to the city.

As for the claim that Street "surrounds himself with corrupt people," you could make that claim about most, it not all, mayors since Rizzo.  Does that make any of them corrupt?  No.   I know one Congressman (R) whose staffer received a "target" letter from the FBI, relating to the staffer's work for Ernie Preate; does that make the Congressman corrupt?

I did find his comment that "We're in charge," to be insulting, but I was also relatively happy about who was in charge when he said it.  I really don't care about the skin color of who is running things as long they are doing the job.  I take that the skin color of the managing director, the fire, and police commissioner really doesn't matter to you either?

As I've said, I've Steet as doing a good job in my neighborhood and in other neighborhoods I frequent, so far, and that's a good swath of Philadelphia.

[Keystone Phil]

Street and his team spun the news, trying to blame the national GOP, the President and Katz.

The Northeast is ignored by this Mayor. I just love how he calls himself "The Neighborhood Mayor" too. What a joke.

That's pretty much all I have to saw on this matter since we seem to be repeating our lines in every post.

Street is the "The Neighborhood Mayor" in my neighborhood.  Here and in Germantown, he has delivered.  Now, I can't tell you what he's like in Northeast, but he has delivered in these other two sections.

I am going to call both you and Bacardi on something that you have said; you called him "corrupt" and Bacardi said that his administration is "one of the most currupt in city history."  I'll hold you to same standard I hold jFRAUD to, where is your evidence?

Now, I didn't like the spin, because I don't like spin.  I also don't like the implication that the FBI was investigating Street, which they were not.  By putting that bug in, they left that implication.  Had the prosecutor's office issued an immediate statement that Street was not the target of an investigation, it might have been a one day story.

Now, I do not think that there was some sort of Republican conspiracy involving the planting of the device.  I do, however, think there was a great deal of stupidity in planting it and not immediately announcing that its target was not Street.

He doesn't deliver here. He must think we are a seperate city.

As for my evidence, we do know that the Mayor gave his brother a nice little city contract for the airport, right? Wasn't there some controversy surrounding that? Then we have his connections with Ron White and all the other mysterious activities regarding other city contracts. He surrounds himself with corrupt people and in my opinion he is a corrupt person. While this has nothing to do with corruption, I thought I might as well bring up the Mayor's well known quote: "The Brothers and sisters are running the city." What a leader.

We know that his brother has a contract, but there is no evidence that it was improperly awarded; we also that a number of city official do have relatives that work for the city (the Inquirer did a recent story).   I take it that you don't feel that simply being related to someone should disqualify someone from working for the City?

We know that Ron White, an attorney, did legal work for the city, but contracted work; he wasn't part of the administration.  The case which is the origin of this, the private school run by an Islamic Iman, dealt with federal funds federally administered; that's why the FBI is involved.  That isn't connected to the city.

As for the claim that Street "surrounds himself with corrupt people," you could make that claim about most, it not all, mayors since Rizzo.  Does that make any of them corrupt?  No.   I know one Congressman (R) whose staffer received a "target" letter from the FBI, relating to the staffer's work for Ernie Preate; does that make the Congressman corrupt?

I did find his comment that "We're in charge," to be insulting, but I was also relatively happy about who was in charge when he said it.  I really don't care about the skin color of who is running things as long they are doing the job.  I take that the skin color of the managing director, the fire, and police commissioner really doesn't matter to you either?

As I've said, I've Steet as doing a good job in my neighborhood and in other neighborhoods I frequent, so far, and that's a good swath of Philadelphia.

Wasn't there something illegal about the contract? I believe they were looking into that.

When it comes to that Mayor's comments, it shows that he is not a leader. I believe he made a second comment that the Brothers and sisters were still in charge of the city and if you don't like it, register Republican. These are good comments? I don't care about the color of someone's skin either, J.J. It's the fact that he uses race to divide us. Could you imagine if a white guy said "The whites are running this town." Could you imagine?

This Mayor has not done a good job with this city. People leave the city. Buisness stays away. Without the bugging, Street would have been gone. I wonder if they'll have approval ratings come out at the end of his term. I don't think he'd get above 45%.

[TeePee4Prez]

J.J., this is one of the few areas me and Keystone actually agree.  His "brotha and sistas" comment along with telling us to vote Republican if we don't like it was very offense to me as a Democrat.  At times I've had the difficult task of defending the national Democratic party because of Street.  Street is lucky Terry McAuliffe or any other prominent Democrat didn't dime his ass out for saying that because if I were DNC chair or representing say PA 13, I would in 2 seconds.  Granted, I realize some whites up here amplify how much they dislike Street because of his color, but Street is not helping us or the African American community.  I would vote for a black mayor if I see it fit.  A small part of the reason I am a Democrat is I get the priviledge of choosing our next mayor, which you or Keystone will simply find out the Wednesday after the primaries unless Frank Rizzo runs and even then I doubt it.     

[Keystone Phil]

  A small part of the reason I am a Democrat is I get the priviledge of choosing our next mayor, which you or Keystone will simply find out the Wednesday after the primaries unless Frank Rizzo runs and even then I doubt it.     

I think Rizzo will run and as a Republican. I'm not sure of his chances. Of course whoever the Dem nominee is, they have the edge. I just hope that Johnny Doc or Chaka Fattah (if he runs) don't win the Democratic primary...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yet it clearly didn't work. I don't see how the Republicans could pick it up now.

Picking up PA 13 will be harder now. I am willing to admit that.

I don't think it was ever that much winnable to begin with. While I don't have the Kerry numbers yet, Gore did better in PA 13 than any district up until last election that was held by a Republican. And Gore's two best districts held by Republicans were NY-27 and CT-2, in NY-27 the Republican retired this election and we picked up his seat. Just outside the threshhold for Republicans it seems.

[Keystone Phil]

Yet it clearly didn't work. I don't see how the Republicans could pick it up now.

Picking up PA 13 will be harder now. I am willing to admit that.

I don't think it was ever that much winnable to begin with.

It wasn't ever much winnable? Are you joking? I bet that even BacardiLimon disagrees with you there. I believe he told me that after Schwartz won the Democratic primary he was worried about her chances. Brown came within 4 points of defeating an incumbent. This seat was winnable for the GOP. Now it will be much harder.