FL-PPP: Obama Beats Gingrich, Ties Romney

[HST1948]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1201925.pdf

Obama v. Republicans
Obama 50%       Gingrich 44%
Obama 45%       Romney 44%
*Obama beats all of the other GOP candidates by the same or a larger margin than he has against Gingrich.

Obama Approval
Approve 45%
Disapprove 50%

Sample
Democrat:42%
Republican: 38%
Independent/ Other: 20%

[King]

What's the breakdown on approval? On surface, 45% with a 42% Dem sample isn't too good.

[HST1948]

What's the breakdown on approval? On surface, 45% with a 42% Dem sample isn't too good.

73% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans of approve of Obama's job.  20% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans disapprove. 43% of independents approve compared to 50% who disapprove.

[King]

Ah.  Well, Obama really has about 8 more points on that approval that are going to vote for him against a conservative.

[pbrower2a]

This is a statistical tie. As shown in 2000, a Republican nominee can defeat the Democrat with a statistical tie in Florida.

[© tweed]

Ah.  Well, Obama really has about 8 more points on that approval that are going to vote for him against a conservative.

if that holds it is a historical anomaly, probably without analog.

[pbrower2a]

Ah.  Well, Obama really has about 8 more points on that approval that are going to vote for him against a conservative.

if that holds it is a historical anomaly, probably without analog.

The last time that the Democratic nominee won Florida by 10% or more was 1948 in a three-way race (49 Truman -35 Dewey -15 Thurmond) Florida was close in 1964, in case you are curious.

[© tweed]

Ah.  Well, Obama really has about 8 more points on that approval that are going to vote for him against a conservative.

if that holds it is a historical anomaly, probably without analog.

The last time that the Democratic nominee won Florida by 10% or more was 1948 in a three-way race (49 Truman -35 Dewey -15 Thurmond) Florida was close in 1964, in case you are curious.

I wasn't curious.  my comment was regarding ratio of presidential approval to presidential re-election vote share

[Devils30]

Presidential approval will matter less than ever if the GOP is really dumb enough to nominate Gingrich and his putrid favorables well below Obama's worst approval.

[© tweed]

Presidential approval will matter less than ever if the GOP is really dumb enough to nominate Gingrich and his putrid favorables well below Obama's worst approval.

you're free to assert this but it flies in the face of History.  such is why I find the gleeful Obama 402-136 maps to be absurd.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Presidential approval will matter less than ever if the GOP is really dumb enough to nominate Gingrich and his putrid favorables well below Obama's worst approval.

you're free to assert this but it flies in the face of History.  such is why I find the gleeful Obama 402-136 maps to be absurd.

There isn't a large enough sample size for History to be a useful electoral predictor in unique situations.

[Skill and Chance]

Don't look to 2000.  This is shaping up as a completely different map:

Obama is "tied" in PA, which makes it look like he's done, but he's also "tied" in FL and OH, and he basically can't lose if he takes either of those.  I don't really know what to make of it all.  There's a very good chance that he's leading outside the margin of error in CO, too.