Ron Paul win's Iowa
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Kevin
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« on: November 25, 2011, 06:49:15 PM »

I've noticed in the poll's that Ron Paul isn't too far behind the main contenders in Iowa, even behind or tying Romney's 2nd place in the poll's the last time I looked.

What if somehow Paul manages to hold his place and breakout for his current spot and go onto win the Iowa Caucus? How would this shake out going forward into the other primaries?
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2011, 06:50:57 PM »

Ron Paul winning means Romney wins.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2011, 07:01:13 PM »

If Ron Paul wins Iowa, I think he could pull off a second close enough to Romney in New Hampshire to make Romney look weak.  That means South Carolina is a free-for all between Romney, Paul, and the SoCon Flavor (let's assume Gingrich).  I would guess the media would play the SoCon as still in the race after "a strong second in Iowa".  So say Gingrich wins South Carolina.

Then its Florida.  I highly doubt Paul can be a contender here, so it is between Romney and Gingrich.  Let's call it a toss-up.  But then February fourth is the Nevada Caucuses, which Paul has a chance at.  If he wins there, he could have enough momentum to win the Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine caucuses.  And then there is the Missouri Primary, where he could sneak by if none of the "major candidates" pay any attention to the state.  The question is, how much attention does the media give Paul for these wins?

At the very end of February we have the Michigan and Arizona primaries.  If Romney won Florida, I have a feeling that he would wrap these up fairly easily.  Then its the Washington Caucus, which Paul could win, and then Super Tuesday.  Paul may well be dismissed as the "Caucus Candidate," which would obviously kill his chances at the nomination.  I wonder if this would be enough to spur Paul on to a third party bid?
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2011, 07:19:54 PM »

If Ron Paul wins Iowa, I think he could pull off a second close enough to Romney in New Hampshire to make Romney look weak.  That means South Carolina is a free-for all between Romney, Paul, and the SoCon Flavor (let's assume Gingrich).  I would guess the media would play the SoCon as still in the race after "a strong second in Iowa".  So say Gingrich wins South Carolina.

Then its Florida.  I highly doubt Paul can be a contender here, so it is between Romney and Gingrich.  Let's call it a toss-up.  But then February fourth is the Nevada Caucuses, which Paul has a chance at.  If he wins there, he could have enough momentum to win the Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine caucuses.  And then there is the Missouri Primary, where he could sneak by if none of the "major candidates" pay any attention to the state.  The question is, how much attention does the media give Paul for these wins?

At the very end of February we have the Michigan and Arizona primaries.  If Romney won Florida, I have a feeling that he would wrap these up fairly easily.  Then its the Washington Caucus, which Paul could win, and then Super Tuesday.  Paul may well be dismissed as the "Caucus Candidate," which would obviously kill his chances at the nomination.  I wonder if this would be enough to spur Paul on to a third party bid?
I agree 100% with this analysis, though I still cannot see Ron killing Rands career with a third party bid. He will get the Republican platform molded slightly towards his views, and this alone could propell a Rand Paul 2016/2020 run to success.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2011, 07:30:47 PM »

Wait, I'm missing something, is Rand Paul supposedly a 2016 contender? LOL.

EDIT: Oh, just realised you mean he'd be kind of an heir to his dad in that he'd inspire unnerving devotion, get a consistent ~ 10% of the vote, and run like fifteen times. Tongue
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defe07
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2011, 08:54:47 PM »

If Ron Paul wins Iowa, I think he could pull off a second close enough to Romney in New Hampshire to make Romney look weak.  That means South Carolina is a free-for all between Romney, Paul, and the SoCon Flavor (let's assume Gingrich).  I would guess the media would play the SoCon as still in the race after "a strong second in Iowa".  So say Gingrich wins South Carolina.

Then its Florida.  I highly doubt Paul can be a contender here, so it is between Romney and Gingrich.  Let's call it a toss-up.  But then February fourth is the Nevada Caucuses, which Paul has a chance at.  If he wins there, he could have enough momentum to win the Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine caucuses.  And then there is the Missouri Primary, where he could sneak by if none of the "major candidates" pay any attention to the state.  The question is, how much attention does the media give Paul for these wins?

At the very end of February we have the Michigan and Arizona primaries.  If Romney won Florida, I have a feeling that he would wrap these up fairly easily.  Then its the Washington Caucus, which Paul could win, and then Super Tuesday.  Paul may well be dismissed as the "Caucus Candidate," which would obviously kill his chances at the nomination.  I wonder if this would be enough to spur Paul on to a third party bid?
I agree 100% with this analysis, though I still cannot see Ron killing Rands career with a third party bid. He will get the Republican platform molded slightly towards his views, and this alone could propell a Rand Paul 2016/2020 run to success.

I also don't think Ron Paul will go third party. However, should he lose the Republican nomination, I see a possibility of Jesse Ventura going independent and Ron endorses him.

With the primaries, I can see Ron Paul winning all the caucuses and many small state primaries if the campaign's smart. What could happen is Ron wins Iowa and the day after he gets all the media buzz and the campaign decides to flood New Hampshire with ads. What could happen is Ron getting a win in Iowa and a very likely strong second in New Hampshire. South Carolina and Florida are going to be tough, if I'm not mistaken, they both got penalized and they get half the delegates; in this situation, looking back at 2008, South Carolina will still allocate delegates by congressional district and statewide and Ron could have a shot at winning district delegates. Florida's winner take all so a top 3 finish would be welcome. Then Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota all have caucuses: he could win all 4 of them. Who knows what's going to happen.
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California8429
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2011, 09:55:41 PM »

He could win Iowa, but as more candidates drop out he'll lose every state. He can win states, as long as the primary vote is deeply divided because he is not a unifying figure of the party, he doesn't represent "generic" republican better than any of the other candidates. He'll pick up support sure, maybe more if he's the anti-Romney, but his ideology won't let him win a one on one or even down to a three person race.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2011, 02:00:53 PM »

He could win Iowa, but as more candidates drop out he'll lose every state. He can win states, as long as the primary vote is deeply divided because he is not a unifying figure of the party, he doesn't represent "generic" republican better than any of the other candidates. He'll pick up support sure, maybe more if he's the anti-Romney, but his ideology won't let him win a one on one or even down to a three person race.
I think with his high fund-raising capability and highly motivated base, he could pack most, if not all of the caucuses.
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Politico
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2011, 02:08:33 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2011, 02:12:04 PM by Politico »


Also, if Iowa gets slammed with a snowstorm on caucus day I think Paul will win. The media will write-off the results as an aberration, and Romney will crush the competition in New Hampshire.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2011, 02:19:43 PM »

come on man learn about apostrophes it looks bad to screw up on the Common App
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2011, 02:24:15 PM »

come on man learn about apostrophes it looks bad to screw up on the Common App

He must have missed that day. Tongue
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