If Ron Paul wins Iowa, I think he could pull off a second close enough to Romney in New Hampshire to make Romney look weak. That means South Carolina is a free-for all between Romney, Paul, and the SoCon Flavor (let's assume Gingrich). I would guess the media would play the SoCon as still in the race after "a strong second in Iowa". So say Gingrich wins South Carolina.
Then its Florida. I highly doubt Paul can be a contender here, so it is between Romney and Gingrich. Let's call it a toss-up. But then February fourth is the Nevada Caucuses, which Paul has a chance at. If he wins there, he could have enough momentum to win the Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine caucuses. And then there is the Missouri Primary, where he could sneak by if none of the "major candidates" pay any attention to the state. The question is, how much attention does the media give Paul for these wins?
At the very end of February we have the Michigan and Arizona primaries. If Romney won Florida, I have a feeling that he would wrap these up fairly easily. Then its the Washington Caucus, which Paul could win, and then Super Tuesday. Paul may well be dismissed as the "Caucus Candidate," which would obviously kill his chances at the nomination. I wonder if this would be enough to spur Paul on to a third party bid?
I also don't think Ron Paul will go third party. However, should he lose the Republican nomination, I see a possibility of Jesse Ventura going independent and Ron endorses him.
With the primaries, I can see Ron Paul winning all the caucuses and many small state primaries if the campaign's smart. What could happen is Ron wins Iowa and the day after he gets all the media buzz and the campaign decides to flood New Hampshire with ads. What could happen is Ron getting a win in Iowa and a very likely strong second in New Hampshire. South Carolina and Florida are going to be tough, if I'm not mistaken, they both got penalized and they get half the delegates; in this situation, looking back at 2008, South Carolina will still allocate delegates by congressional district and statewide and Ron could have a shot at winning district delegates. Florida's winner take all so a top 3 finish would be welcome. Then Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota all have caucuses: he could win all 4 of them. Who knows what's going to happen.
