If Ron Paul wins Iowa, I think he could pull off a second close enough to Romney in New Hampshire to make Romney look weak. That means South Carolina is a free-for all between Romney, Paul, and the SoCon Flavor (let's assume Gingrich). I would guess the media would play the SoCon as still in the race after "a strong second in Iowa". So say Gingrich wins South Carolina.
Then its Florida. I highly doubt Paul can be a contender here, so it is between Romney and Gingrich. Let's call it a toss-up. But then February fourth is the Nevada Caucuses, which Paul has a chance at. If he wins there, he could have enough momentum to win the Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine caucuses. And then there is the Missouri Primary, where he could sneak by if none of the "major candidates" pay any attention to the state. The question is, how much attention does the media give Paul for these wins?
At the very end of February we have the Michigan and Arizona primaries. If Romney won Florida, I have a feeling that he would wrap these up fairly easily. Then its the Washington Caucus, which Paul could win, and then Super Tuesday. Paul may well be dismissed as the "Caucus Candidate," which would obviously kill his chances at the nomination. I wonder if this would be enough to spur Paul on to a third party bid?
I agree 100% with this analysis, though I still cannot see Ron killing Rands career with a third party bid. He will get the Republican platform molded slightly towards his views, and this alone could propell a Rand Paul 2016/2020 run to success.
