Nebraska and North Dakota are safe pick-ups
Missouri and Montana are likely pick-ups
Wisconsin leans pick-up
Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Massachusetts and Nevada are total toss-ups
New Mexico leans retention
Indiana and Arizona likely retention
Connecticut will depend on the primary
Your prediction isn't very balanced. Also you forgot Maine. The reality is more like this:
Nebraska is a safe pick-up
Massachusetts, Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and Missouri lean pick-up
Wisconsin, Virginia and Montana are toss-ups
Ohio and New Mexico lean retention
Indiana and Arizona likely retention
