Ranking the Senate Races....

[morgieb]

It's a little early, but why not?

Lean Pickup

1. North Dakota (Open, was D-Conrad) - this isn't good for the Democrats at all, but Heitkamp is a pretty strong candidate, and Berg might be too conservative even for North Dakota. Polls are also showing this tightening. I still think Berg will win this state, though.

2. Nebraska (D-Ben Nelson) - the only thing that might save him is 1. he hasn't been keeping to the Democratic line since Obama was elected, and 2. the Republican primary is likely to get messy. But he smells like Blanche Lincoln did last year, and there are now rumours that he might give it up. Should that happen, he'll go to #1.

3. Massachusetts (R-Scott Brown) - I'm probably being a little premature saying that this is a Lean Pickup, given Brown and Warren are pretty much tied in the polls, but the early signs are good for Warren. She's a pretty strong candidate, and I still struggle to see a Republican senator winning elections Massachusetts under normal circumstances.

Toss-up

4. Montana (D-Tester) - this looks like a dead heat. Both Rehberg and Tester have strong name recognition and are popular. A lot will depend on the election as a whole.

5. Nevada (R-Heller) - in effect an open seat because Heller's an appointed Senator. With Berkley performing well, and Nevada being purple with a blueish tinge, it looks to be a tight one.

6. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - looking like a dead heat too! The difference is, McCaskill won't get a contested primary, whereas the Republicans will, so she may still survive.

7. Wisconsin (Open, was D-Kohl) - pretty similar to Missouri in that it's a swing state with a contested Republican primary and an obvious Democrat, but Baldwin isn't the incumbent and her sexuality will probably cost her. However, Wisconsin leans Democratic stronger than Missouri, and it did elect liberal icon Russell Feingold many times, so if she campaigns well, Baldwin's got a good shot at the seat.

8. Virginia (Open, was D-Webb) - Macaca makes too much gaffes for him to have the edge, and Kaine is rather popular, but this is nevertheless a nail-biter.

9. New Mexico (Open, was D-Bingaman) - Democrats probably have the edge here, but we need to wait for the primaries to happen to make a proper judgement on the seat.

10. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - with Connie Mack now running, it looks tough for Nelson to win. Previously, his chances of losing was probably overstated, because although his approvals weren't great, he was leading most Republicans. But now, he may not be. Could be a tight race.

Lean Retention

11. Ohio (D-Sherrod Brown) - Brown will be tough to knock-off, but Mandel's a strong candidate, if a little young, and Ohio's economy is in the pits and it remains to be seen who they blame.

12. Michigan (D-Stabenow) - similar fundamentals to Ohio, but Hoestrka isn't as strong as Mandel and the state is a fair bit bluer.

13. Arizona (Open, was R-Kyl) - if Giffords runs, she'll probably win due to the sympathy vote and Flake will probably make some form of gaffe, but if she hasn't properly recovered, it'll probably stay in Republican hands. However, polls are showing this to be rather close even without her.

Likely Retention

14. Hawaii (Open, was D-Akaka) - Lingle would be more competitive in a mid-term year, but it's probably too much to ask of her to beat the Democrats in a presidential year. But if Case beats Hirono in the primary, watch out.

15. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - Obama is poison in this state, but Manchin is popular and anti-Obama, WV is actually very Democratic outside of federal elections, and Capito may not run.

16. New Jersey (D-Menendez) - he's not popular, but neither are most New Jersey politicians, and too often it looks like a seat for the Republicans, and they don't win it.

Long Shots

17. Connecticut (Open, was ID-Lieberman) - probably could be competitive if Shays wins the nomination, but won't be if McMahon does so.

18. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - the Casey name is gold in Pennsylvania, and the Republicans don't have good candidates.

19. Maine (R-Snowe) - will win the state if she gets past the primary. If not, then it'll turn blue.

20. Indiana (R-Lugar) - see above, but there are other contingencies to talk about. Firstly, Morduck actually has some establishment support (in contrast to Snowe's opposition), and secondly, Morduck would still have the edge if he knocked off Lugar in the primary. However, Donnelly is a strong coup for the Democrats.

21. Texas (Open, was R-Bailey Hutchison) - I still think it's too much to expect a Democrat to win in Texas right now, but things might change.

Snowball's-Chance-in-Hell

22. Washington (D-Cantwell) - with a good candidate it could be interesting, but I'm yet to hear of one.

23. Tennessee (R-Corker) - see above. And the Democrats bench in Tennessee isn't much chop, either.

24. Minnesota (D-Klobuchar) - her approvals are too high for the Republicans to have a realistic chance of knocking her off.

Live Boy, Dead Girl

25. California (D-Feinstein) - Feinstein might retire, and her approvals aren't that strong anyway, but the Republicans don't have a good bench in Cali.

26. Delaware (D-Carper) - Republican's bench isn't good enough for Carper to be knocked off.

27. Maryland (D-Cardin) - not the sort of state that the Republicans would think of winning.

28. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse) - Whitehouse has marginal approval ratings, but Rhode Island isn't the sort of state the Republicans would win.

29. New York (D-Gilliband) - Schumer will raise too much money for Gilliband, so it's near impossible for a Republican to knock her off, even someone like Giluiani.

30. Mississippi (R-Wicker) - he's even popular with Democrats. Says a lot, doesn't it?

31. Vermont (ID-Sanders) - he's a socialist, but it's Vermont, and there aren't many good Republicans in Vermont anymore.

32. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - it's Wyoming. Enough said.

33. Utah (R-Hatch) - may have been interesting if Chaffetz and Matheson ran, but they aren't so Hatch will stay solid.

[morgieb]

Likely Pickup

1. Nebraska (D-Ben Nelson) - no doubt Nelson is in trouble. He's behind in the polls, his approvals are awful, he's in a very red state, and there is even the chance of him not being the nominee. However, the Republican candidates haven't got a solid lead on him, and Bob Kerrey could be a better option should he retire.

Lean Pickup

2. North Dakota (Open, was D-Conrad) - this race deserves some neutral polling. Indeed, it seems rather close. I still give the edge to Berg, however.

3. Massachusetts (R-Scott Brown) - Most polling has Brown behind, and the gap will only widen as Warren's name recognition starts to improve. His approval ratings are also underwater now, and Massachusetts remains a heavily Democratic state - Brown is literally the only Republican with a credible political position. However, assuming Mitt Romney is the nominee, he could give Brown some help.

Toss-up

4. Montana (D-Tester) - Tester's approvals look very marginal now. Most polls have Rehberg with a narrow lead. It is quite a Republican state. Still, Montana usually elects Democratic senators.

5. Wisconsin (Open, was D-Kohl) - still have problems believing Baldwin's mainstream enough to beat a strong candidate like Tommy Thompson. However, she certainly can beat Neumann.

6. Nevada (R-Heller) - Berkley's catching up big time. Within time, Heller could be in serious trouble.

7. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - McCaskill should be in some trouble, as Missouri is turning redder and her approvals are quite poor. But she is still leading most Republicans in the polls.

8. Virginia (Open, was D-Webb) - will remain a tossup long into the future.

Lean Retention

9. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - I still don't know what to believe here. A poll by Rasmussen showed Mack up by 2. Yet PPP showed Nelson up by 11. Overall, the edge is Nelson's, but we need to wait and see.

10. New Mexico (Open, was D-Bingaman) - Johnson would be a strong candidate, but he's on an ego trip. Wilson could be competitive, but Heinrich still leads her relatively comfortably.

11. Ohio (D-Sherrod Brown)

12. Michigan (D-Stabenow)

13. Arizona (Open, was R-Kyl) - Carmona has Flake in within 4. Add that Flake, on fiscal matters is the most conservative house member (or was), this race could be interesting. But we need to wait to see if Carmona is a Jim Webb, or a Ricardo Sanchez.

Likely Retention

14. Hawaii (Open, was D-Akaka) - Hirono should be safe against Lingle given the circumstances, but Case won't be.

15. Connecticut (Open, was ID-Lieberman) - the polling in this race is actually competitive. However, I still think Connecticut Republicans will make the mistake of nominating McMahon.

16. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - Casey's approval ratings are surprisingly marginal. Also, the Republican bench in Pennsylvania is quite strong, and Corbett's approvals aren't ed like Kasich and Snyder's are. With that said, the candidates in this race aren't very strong.

Long Shots

17. New Jersey (D-Menendez)

18. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - Manchin's approvals are awesome, and he's way ahead of the rest of the pack. It might be competitive if Capito runs and can tie him to Obama, but that's a long shot at this stage.

19. Indiana (R-Lugar) - deserves some more polling.

Snowball's-Chance-in-Hell

20. Washington (D-Cantwell)

21. Tennessee (R-Corker)

22. Texas (Open, was R-Bailey Hutchison) - Democrats should've found much better candidates than the one's they have now.

23. Minnesota (D-Klobuchar)

24. Maine (R-Snowe) - A primary challenge isn't looking like it'd succeed.

Live Boy, Dead Girl

25. California (D-Feinstein)

26. Delaware (D-Carper)

27. Maryland (D-Cardin)

28. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse)

29. New York (D-Gilliband)

30. Utah (R-Hatch)

31. Mississippi (R-Wicker)

32. Vermont (ID-Sanders)

33. Wyoming (R-Barrasso)

[morgieb]

Not a real update, but with Nelson retiring, Nebraska moves to Safe Pickup.

[morgieb]

Likely Pickup

1. North Dakota (D-Open)

2. Nebraska (D-Open) - Kerrey at least will force the Republicans to spend some money here. But the country is so polarised now that it's hard to see him win, as well as him spending the last 12 years in New York.

Lean Pickup

3. Maine (R-Open) - this race has changed so much in the past week. First, Snowe retired at the last minute, leaving the Republicans without a Plan B. Then, John Baldacci, Mike Machaud and Chellie Pingree all jumped in, but only Baldacci stayed in. Then, former Governor Angus King jumped in. Assuming he caucuses with the Democrats, the Democrats should pick this up, despite a three-way race, because the candidates are unpopular (Baldacci) or unknown (the other candidates).

Toss-up

4. Montana (D-Tester)

5. Wisconsin (D-Open) - I still feel Baldwin's too liberal for Wisconsin, and Thompson has a comfortable lead on her, but the Republicans could make the mistake of nominating Neumann, and a big win by Obama here could elect Baldwin on his coattails.

6. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - looks more crucial than it did a month ago when it looked like Warren was gonna cruise to victory, but Brown now has a lead in many polls. I still struggle to believe that this race won't narrow, but it's more of a toss-up right now rather than a lean/likely Democratic pickup.

7. Nevada (R-Heller)

8. Missouri (D-McCaskill)

9. Virginia (D-Open)

10. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - no idea what will happen here. Polls were rather bouncy but now they're showing a very narrow Nelson victory.

Lean Retention

11. New Mexico (D-Open)

12. Ohio (D-Brown) - this race will probably narrow once Mandel's name recognition improves, and he has got serious money, but I still favour Sherrod Brown to win right now.

Likely Retention

13. Arizona (R-Open)

14. Hawaii (D-Open) - looking more like Hirono rather than Case will be the candidate, which can only be a good thing for Hawaiian Democrats.

15. Connecticut (D-Open) - polls are close, but I still think the Republicans will make the mistake of nominating McMahon.

16. Indiana (R-Open) - we need more polling.

17. Michigan (D-Stabenow) - improving economy and a racist candidate improves Stabenow's chances of winning. Who would've thought?

18. Pennsylvania (D-Casey)

Long Shots

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - unless Obama has major downballot effects, Manchin should cruise to victory.

20. New Jersey (D-Menendez)

Snowball's-Chance-in-Hell

21. Texas (R-Open)

22. Washington (D-Cantwell)

23. Tennessee (R-Corker)

24. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar)

Live Boy, Dead Girl

25. California (D-Feinstein)

26. Delaware (D-Carper)

27. Maryland (D-Cardin)

28. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse)

29. New York (D-Gilliband)

30. Utah (R-Hatch)

31. Mississippi (R-Wicker)

32. Vermont (ID-Sanders)

33. Wyoming (R-Barrasso)

[morgieb]

Republicans list (to knock off):

1. Nebraska (Open) - Kerrey's a long way behind in the polls, and his carpetbagging won't help. While on paper he's a great candidate, he doesn't appear to be in practice. Democrats can forget about this seat.

2. North Dakota (Open) - while I'm skeptical of internals, it appears that Berg looks like a dud candidate. While the partisan lean of North Dakota will probably get him a win, it isn't as easy as most people expect.

3. Montana (Tester) - both candidates have high name recognition (I could be wrong), so most likely the polls won't be as jumpy here. And most polls appear to have a narrow but steady lead for Rehberg.

4. Missouri (McCaskill) - polling has turned very sour for her, but all the Republican candidates are nutcases. McCaskill may be able to win by saying she's an independent voice for the state.

5. Wisconsin (Open) - Mourdock's win here hurts the Republican's chances I feel. It gives Thompson a major threat in the primaries by Neumann, and Neumann can't really appear like a moderate due to his Club for Growth links. A genuine conservative versus a genuine progressive will probably depend a lot on the GOTV, and the recall.

6. Virginia (Open) - this depends on the General Election most likely, and may be the race that tips the Senate.

7. New Mexico (Open) - although Wilson's quite a good candidate, and there's a contested race on the Democrat side, it's probably asking too much for a Republican to win New Mexico in an election year. Whether Obama's gay marriage turn could depress Hispanic turnout is another question altogether.

8. Florida (Nelson) - Mack appears to be a troubled candidate, and LeMieux is too linked to Crist to win a primary. Nelson looks a lot better, but if the Republicans get a decent win here, it can push their Senate candidate over the line.

9. Ohio (Sherrod Brown) - possible that it could narrow as Mandel's name recognition improves, but despite being very liberal Brown's probably a better fit for Ohio than Mandel.

10. Hawaii (Open) - Lingle's a very strong candidate, but it probably won't be enough in Obama's year.

11. Michigan (Stabenow) - should've been competitive, but Hoestrka turned out to be a fail candidate and the economy is improving.

12. Connecticut (Open) - as the primaries aren't over it may become competitive if flukes happen. But it probably won't.

13. New Jersey (Mendenez) - Kyrillos seems a semi-interesting candidate, but it'll probably require something big to happen to cause an upset.

14. Pennsylvania (Casey) - the Casey name is an institution into Pennsylvanian politics, and running a self-raiser businessman against someone is usually a sign of weakness.

15. West Virginia (Manchin) - should've been competitive due to Obama's troubles in Appalachia, but Raese is a terrible candidate and Manchin remains very popular.

16. Washington (Cantwell) - Republicans needed the right circumstances to trouble Cantwell and they didn't get one.

17. Minnesota (Kloubchar) - Kloubchar is very popular in Minnesota, and a strong candidate to make the seat vaguely competitive wasn't found.

18. New York (Gillibrand) - Gillibrand's not really a candidate to knock off.

19. Delaware (Carper) - Republicans didn't nominate O'Donnell but they didn't nominate someone compelling.

20. California (Feinstein) - Californian Republicans are retarded.

21. Maryland (Cardin) - running against a no-name

22. Vermont (Sanders) - Sanders is an institution in Vermont politics.

23. Rhode Island (Whitehouse) - running against a no-name.

Democrat list (to knock off):

1. Maine (Open) - King will caucus with the Democrats, those that don't think so are delusional. Knocking him off is possible if everything goes wrong, but that's unlikely.

2. Massachusetts (Scott Brown) - despite the Native American scandal, Warren hasn't been hit very hard. While it's still tight, the blueness of Massachusetts gives Warren a major advantage.

3. Nevada (Heller) - Berkley's struggling in the polls, and Heller is a decent fit for Nevada. While a version of the reserve Bradley candidate may be play in here (Hispanics getting undercounted by pollsters), Heller is probably the narrow favourite at this stage.

4. Indiana (Open, Lugar lost primary) - Lugar, an institution of Indianan politics, lost to Mourdock, a Tea Party backed insurgent. While Mourdock, unlike most Tea Party candidates, actually has won elected office, it gives Donnelly a big chance if he runs a competent campaign, and at the very least forces the Republicans to spend a lot of money to keep the seat.

5. Arizona (Open) - winnable with an upset in the Presidential election, but it requires Carmona to play his cards right.

6. Texas (Open) - could've been interesting on paper, but the Democrats only got some no-names.

7. Utah (Hatch) - Hatch might get primaried, but a Democrat isn't winning in Utah in Mitt Romney's year.

8. Tennessee (Corker) - does he have a opponent yet?

9. Mississippi (Wicker) - running against a no-name.

10. Wyoming (Barrasso) - running effectively unopposed.

[morgieb]

Likely Pickup

1. Nebraska (D-Open [was Ben Nelson]) - no real hope for Kerrey here unless Fischer completely flops, and even then she might still win here.

2. Maine (R-Open [was Snowe]) - King will kill his pitiful opposition unless Dill lights a Christmas tree, but who he caucuses with is unknown. However, I think he'll caucus with the Democrats.

Toss-up

3. North Dakota (D-Open [was Conrad]) - although I think the partisan lean of North Dakota will eventually be too much for Heitkamp, Berg has proved totally incompetent and turned a likely pickup to a toss-up.

4. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - she's in a load of sh**t, but the Republican candidates I feel are too right-wing for this not to be competitive.

5. Wisconsin (D-Open [was Kohl]) - Baldwin is struggling big time and the recall will the Reps here, but I reckon it could become very competitive if Thompson loses the primary, which remains very possible given in Indiana and Nebraska.

6. Montana (D-Tester) - a close fight, could go either way. I give Rehberg an edge though as Montana is quite red.

7. Massachusetts (R-Scott Brown) - see Montana, except this state is very blue rather than red.

8. Virginia (D-Open [was Webb]) - the ultra swing state. Very feasible that it may decide the Presidency and the Senate.

9. Indiana (R-Open [was Lugar]) - see North Dakota. Republicans really screwed this race up.

Leans Retention

10. Nevada (R-Heller) - most polls are showing Heller with a lead. While it's impossible to rule out the Harry Reid machine, advantage Republican at this stage.

11. Ohio (D-Sherrod Brown)

12. New Mexico (D-Open [was Bingaman]) - polling and coat-tails favour Heinrich.

13. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - should have been competitive, but Mack has been a failed candidate.

Likely Retention

14. Hawaii (D-Open [was Akaka])

15. Arizona (R-Open [was Kyl]) - polling has shown this to be fairly competitive but I still think Carmona's a long shot.

16. New Jersey (D-Medendez)

17. Connecticut (ID-Open [was Lieberman]) - polling has shown this surprisingly competitive, but I can't see Murphy losing.

18. Michigan (D-Stabenow)

Safe Retention

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - surely the Reps could've found a better candidate than Raese?

20. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - running an untested businessman is a weakness, not a strength. Particularly given the Republicans have a strong bench here and Casey's approvals are surprisingly tepid.

21. Minnesota (D-Klobuchar)

22. Texas (R-Open [was Hutchison]) - Dems didn't provide proper opposition to an open seat.

23. Washington (D-Cantwell)

24. Tennessee (R-Corker)

25. Utah (R-Hatch) - a primary loss could shake it up, but it's Utah.

26. New York (D-Gilliband)

27. California (D-Feinstein)

28. Delaware (D-Carper)

29. Maryland (D-Cardin)

30. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse)

31. Mississippi (R-Wicker)

32. Vermont (ID-Sanders)

33. Wyoming (R-Barrasso)

2014 (I'm doing this in order of vulnerability)

Very Vulnerable:

1. Alaska (D-Begich) - Begich only barely won against a convicted felon in 2008. In less favourable circumstances and against a non-corrupt Republican, he is probably toast.

2. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - Landrieu got tested by a little funded Republican opponent in 2008 and Louisiana is trending red hard. She is in a lot of trouble.

3. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Arkansas is trending red hard, and Pryor doesn't appear to be very popular. He too is in quite a lot of trouble.

4. Montana (D-Baucus) - Yes Baucus has been a Senate figure for over 30 years, but his welcome appears to be worn out and Montana is still fundamentally a red state. Baucus is in trouble.

Vulnerable

5. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - Hagan isn't very popular, and the state has never truly loved their Senators. Could be trouble.

6. South Dakota (D-Johnson?) - a lot depends on Johnson. Will he make another run, given his health issues? Might Mike Rounds (who seems likely to run) make him work for him job or scare him into retirement? If Johnson runs again however, he is probably the favourite. If not, this race will become the Republicans #1 pickup opportunity.

7. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - key swing state. New Hampshire appears to returning to its red roots after the Lynch experiment and Shaheen isn't extremely well established. Could be interesting, though if the Dems pick up the house seats it may fall off the radar.

8. West Virginia (D-Rockefeller?) - it seems likely that Rockefeller will retire after this election. Although West Virginia is trending Republican hard at the Presidential level, it is still quite blue outside of it, so it is probably still leaning Dem unless Capito wants this seat.

9. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - Yes McConnell is a machine man, but his approvals are in the dump. And they could get worse if Romney wins. This is the Dems best pickup opportunity this cycle and they won't want to waste it. If Obama wins however, it'll take a lot of heat off McConnell.

Potentially Vulnerable

10. New Jersey (D-Lautenberg?) - Lautenberg will probably retire after this election. As it is, he is quite unpopular, but unless Christie wants the seat, it will probably remain in Democratic hands.

11. New Mexico (D-T Udall) - Tom Udall seems to be fairly quiet, and the Hispanic advantage is probably less relevant in a mid-term election. Nevertheless, it'll probably be hard to stop him.

12. Maine (R-Collins?) - This race depends entirely on Collins. If she runs for re-election, she'll easily win, but will she? Or can she? A primary challenge or a retirement is not out of the question.

13. Colorado (D-M Udall) - Mark Udall seems to be making a name for himself, so he is probably OK.

14. Minnesota (D-Franken) - Franken will be the liberal icon that the Reps would love to knock over, but can they? The state seems to be returning to its blue roots after the Pawlenty experiment, and he is 50+ against the likes of Coleman and Pawlenty, let alone Bachmann.

15. Iowa (D-Harkin) - Harkin is very well entrenched. Simply put, this race ranks where it is as there aren't any better options, unless Branstad gets in his mind that being a Senator might be a good option.

16. Michigan (D-Levin?) - Levin would need to retire, which is possible. If he does, the seat will become a toss-up, perhaps leaning R.

17. Virginia (D-Warner?) - some talk that Warner will run for Governor or even retire. He won't lose if he runs but it'll become a toss-up if he doesn't, perhaps leaning R.

18. South Carolina (R-Graham?) - Graham might get primaried, but it's unclear what effect that might have as South Carolina tends to be fairly conservative.

19. Georgia (R-Chambliss) - A chance with proper targeting at a GE, but a midterm might be one step too far.

Safe (for now)

20. Oregon (D-Merkley) - only narrowly won in 2008, but who would beat him? I don't see Smith running again.

21. Oklahoma (R-Inhofe?) - Inhofe might retire, but Oklahoma doesn't like sending Democrats to Washington.

22. Illinois (D-Durbin?) - might retire, but even then there's a weak bench in Illinois, and I really don't see them giving the Reps 2 seats.

23. Mississippi (R-Cochran?) - I don't see him running again, but are there any Dems who can win in Mississippi currently?

24. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - see Oklahoma, except Alexander is running again.

25. Texas (R-Cornyn?) - may get primaried, but it's Texas, and in a mid-term.

26. Nebraska (R-Johanns) - fairly well entrenched, plus the Dems don't really have a bench here.

27. Kansas (R-Roberts) - very well entrenched, even if Seliebus or Parkinson runs they'll probably lose.

28. Delaware (D-Coons) - Republicans don't have a bench here.

29. Massachusetts (D-Kerry?) - Kerry may retire, or pick up the SoS slot, but the Republicans don't have a bench here.

30. Wyoming (R-Enzi?) - Enzi may retire, but are there any non-Frudenthal Dems in Wyoming?

31. Alabama (R-Sessions) - unless Sessions retires, the Dems have no hope. Even with a retirement, there aren't really many strong candidates here that are still Democrats.

32. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - no real shot, Rhode Island is just too blue.

33. Idaho (R-Risch) - no real shot, Idaho is just too red.

[morgieb]

Likely Pickup

1. Maine (R-Open [was Snowe]) - King is a long way ahead. Although he has not announced what party he is aligned to, I suspect he'll be a Democrat. The only saving grace may be a sudden rise from Dill, but that looks unlikely.

2. Nebraska (D-Open [was Nelson]) - could use some polling, as ex-governors have good track records winning seats, but the race clearly favours Fischer.

Lean Pickup

3. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - when SurveyUSA has you down by 11, that means trouble. Will probably narrow once Missouri realises how conservative Akin is, but I don't think it'll be enough.

Toss-up

4. Wisconsin (D-Open [was Kohl]) - although some fundamentals are quite good for Baldwin - such as fundraising - Thompson is more appealing to independents and has won state-wide races before. Furthermore, the Republicans are likely to make a big play here at the federal level.

5. North Dakota (D-Open [was Conrad]) - Heitkamp is much more appealing than Berg, but obviously this is a very Republican state. Probably deserves some more polling, but for various reasons this is difficult.

6. Montana (D-Tester) - again, deserves some more polling - although Rehberg has a narrow lead, most of it is from Rasmussen polling.

7. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - basically a tied race. In the end however I feel that Warren will have the upper hand as Massachusetts is so blue, but Brown is a very tough opponent.

8. Virginia (D-Open [was Webb]) - a nightmare to predict. Will probably go down to a recount.

Lean Retention

9. Florida (D-Nelson) - Mack has made a lot of ground on Nelson, but whether the Ryan choice impacts on anything is yet to be seen. It could hurt it.

10. Nevada (R-Heller) - yes the state fundamentals help Berkley somewhat, as Nevada is relatively apathetic towards politics and Berkley has raised more money, but Heller is closer to the center, hasn't had any scandals and has generally raised more money.

11. Indiana (R-Lugar [lost nomination]) - internals show a good story for Mourdock, yet Rassmussen shows this race as a toss-up. Deserves some more polling.

12. Ohio (D-Brown) - he's unlucky that Rassy shows it tied and Mandel is a strong fundraiser. Else it'd be Likely D at least.

13. New Mexico (D-Heinrich) - probably deserves some polling, as Wilson could be competitive. Yet the race clearly leans Heinrich.

Likely Retention

14. Arizona (R-Open [was Kyl]) - a weird race. Flake is very conservative, and Carmona does have potential ties with the Hispanic community, so could be competitive in the right conditions, however Flake is leading by a fairly large margin, and Arizona is likely to go red again.

15. Connecticut (ID-Open [was Lieberman]) - some polls have been a little iffy, however I can't see McMahon doing any better than she did in 2010.

16. New Jersey (D-Menendez) - I still think it may be quasi-competitive in the right circumstances, given Menendez isn't very popular and Kyrillos has support from Christie. Yet it'll remain blue most likely.

17. Hawaii (D-Open [was Akaka]) - yes Lingle is a very strong fundraiser, but it doesn't look like being enough in a state like this. Given Hirono won the primary, it's hard for Lingle to get a look in.

18. Michigan (D-Stabenow) - could have been interesting had Hoestrka not been a racist.

Umm....yeah....

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - any state like this should be competitive, however Raese is an awful candidate.

20. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - although Casey is less popular than you'd think, he has a fairly robust lead and doesn't have a serious opponent.

21. Washington (D-Cantwell) - maybe could've been quasi-competitive, but the Republicans only have a third-tier candidate. Furthermore, she won 55% in the jungle primary.

22. Texas (R-Open [was Hutchinson]) - moves up a little bit with Cruz upsetting Dewhurst, but the Democrats don't have a strong candidate.

A live boy/dead girl might not be enough

23. California (D-Feinstein) - won nearly 50% in the jungle primary, and is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state. Yep....

24. Maryland (D-Cardin) - not polled, but Cardin is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state.

25. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar) - Kloubchar is very popular, and the Minnesotan Republican party is in a state of disarray.

26. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse) - facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state.

27. Delaware (D-Carper) - not polled, but Carper is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very blue state. Also, Carper has a strong reputation in Delaware politics.

28. Mississippi (R-Wicker) - not polled, but Wicker is facing a fourth-tier candidate in a very red state.

29. Utah (R-Hatch) - not in Mitt Romney's year.

30. New York (D-Gillibrand) - unlike other safe races, this is polled a lot, and Gillibrand is leading by massive margins.

31. Vermont (ID-Sanders) - Sanders is an institution in Vermont politics.

32. Tennessee (R-Corker) - facing a candidate even Democrats want nothing to do with.

33. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - running unopposed?

[morgieb]

Upgrades:

Nebraska - Fischer is up by 25 according to WAA. I think we can call this.
Wisconsin - Thompson up 11, although it is Rasmussen. Probably a Lean R at least though.

Downgrades:

Missouri - you know why, although there is withdrawal potential.

[morgieb]

Updates:

* Connecticut becomes a slightly better pickup opportunity, although I think the Rassy poll is quite an outlier.
* Massachusetts become slightly more of a favourable retention opportunity, but the accompanying presidential poll felt a little R-leaning.

One thing I will say though, is that too many polls feel too favourable to Republicans. So I'm not sure what polls I can trust at this stage.

[morgieb]

Going, Going, Gone

1. Nebraska (D-Open, was Ben Nelson) - a recent WAA poll has Fischer up by 25 points. I think we can call this.

Likely Pickup

2. Maine (R-Open, was Snowe) - the only reason I keep this as a likely pickup rather than a certain one is due to the logistics of the race. King has not yet decided who he'd caucus with (although I expect he'd go with the Democrats), and a three-way race makes it easier for miracle comebacks, particularly given his opponents are not very well known. Yet I expect King to win easy.

Lean Pickup

3. Wisconsin (D-Open, was Kohl) - every poll since the primary has had Thompson with a solid lead. Maybe Thompson's tax issues may make a difference, but any Obama coat-tails are less relevant now due to Ryan joining the Republican ticket, making it a tossup.

Toss-up

4. North Dakota (D-Open, was Conrad)

5. Montana (D-Tester)

6. Virginia (D-Open, was Webb)

7. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - Brown has started to claw away in this race. Still, there's a lot of coat-tails for Obama on offer, and most people want a Democrat in the Senate. This will probably keep it tight until election night.

8. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - falls away big time due to Akin's rape comments. Still a chance of withdrawal, and Akin may still win if the scandal blows over. But McCaskill's chances look much better now.

9. Nevada (R-Heller) - numbers are slightly improving for Berkley, and polling in Nevada tends to be quite pessimistic for the Democrats, but still Heller probably has the advantage.

Lean Retention

10. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - after Sheen Mack was looking competitive throughout July, Nelson's now looking a lot better.

11. Indiana (R-Lugar, lost primary)

12. Connecticut (ID-Open, was Lieberman) - here's a race that looks a lot more interesting. Now McMahon's leading in two polls, which will at least force the Dems to spend a bit of money here. Furthermore, there's likely to be quite a shift in Presidential voting. However, I think Murphy eventually wins due to the states strong partisan affiliation.

Likely Retention

13. New Mexico (D-Open, was Bingaman) - Heinrich has an internal showing him up 7, which isn't great for internals, but Rassy also says he's up 7. With New Mexico seeming solidly Obama, Wilson feels more of a nuisance rather than a genuine threat.

14. Ohio (D-Brown)

15. Arizona (R-Open, was Kyl)

Long Shots

16. Hawaii (D-Open, was Akaka)

17. Michigan (D-Stabenow)

18. New Jersey (D-Menendez)

Umm....yeah....

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin)

20. Washington (D-Cantwell)

21. Texas (R-Open, was Hutchison)

A live boy/dead girl might not be enough

22. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - falls away quite a bit due to Smith's rape remarks. Basically no chance of flipping now.

23. California (D-Feinstein)

24. Maryland (D-Cardin)

25. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar)

26. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse)

27. Delaware (D-Carper)

28. Mississippi (R-Wicker)

29. Utah (R-Hatch)

30. New York (D-Gillibrand)

31. Vermont (ID-Sanders)

32. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - well, the Democrats actually have a candidate with political experience rather than an untested businessman or just a member of the general public, but Barrasso is extremely popular and this is Wyoming.

33. Tennessee (R-Corker)

[morgieb]

Going, Going, Gone

1. Nebraska (D-Open, was Ben Nelson)

Likely Pickup

2. Maine (R-Open, was Snowe) - looks like the NRSC are going for it, which makes this race more interesting. Definitely a potential boilover.

Toss-up

3. North Dakota (D-Open, was Conrad)

4. Wisconsin (D-Open, was Kohl) - I feel the recent polls may be outliers, but Baldwin has the money advantage and I think she may get over the line in the end.

5. Montana (D-Tester)

6. Virginia (D-Open, was Webb)

7. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - Warren looking a lot better post-DNC. Looking like she wins here.

8. Missouri (D-McCaskill)

9. Nevada (R-Heller)

Lean Retention


10. Indiana (R-Lugar, lost primary)

11. Connecticut (ID-Open, was Lieberman)

12. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - polling has become very positive for Nelson. Definitely favoured.

13. Ohio (D-Brown) - see above, upgrading this as my previous rank was too optimistic I feel.

Likely Retention

14. New Mexico (D-Open, was Bingaman)

15. Arizona (R-Open, was Kyl)

Long Shots

16. Hawaii (D-Open, was Akaka)

17. Michigan (D-Stabenow)

18. New Jersey (D-Menendez)

Umm....yeah....

19. West Virginia (D-Manchin)

20. Washington (D-Cantwell)

21. Texas (R-Open, was Hutchison)

A live boy/dead girl might not be enough

22. Pennsylvania (D-Casey)

23. California (D-Feinstein)

24. Maryland (D-Cardin)

25. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar)

26. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse)

27. Delaware (D-Carper)

28. Mississippi (R-Wicker)

29. Utah (R-Hatch)

30. New York (D-Gillibrand)

31. Vermont (ID-Sanders)

32. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - well, the Democrats actually have a candidate with political experience rather than an untested businessman or just a member of the general public, but Barrasso is extremely popular and this is Wyoming.

33. Tennessee (R-Corker)
[/quote]

[morgieb]

Going, Going, Gone

1. Nebraska (D-Open, was Ben Nelson)

Lean Pickup

2. Maine (R-Open, was Snowe) - falling away quite quickly. King has ran a sh**tty campaign and the Pubbies are realising the potential of a split vote. The polls still have him ahead, however.

Toss-up/Tilt Pickup

3. North Dakota (D-Open, was Conrad) - the other race which seems like it has a good chance of flipping. However, a scandal regarding Berg may have an impact here. We need polls here.

4. Massachusetts (R-Brown) - Warren's momentum may have stalled in polling, but Brown's campaign looks like it is running scared.

5. Montana (D-Tester) - this and Massachusetts look similar at the surface - flawed challengers against popular incumbents in states which aren't favourable to the incumbent party. The difference here is that Montana's a lot less red than Massachusetts is blue.

Toss-up/Tilt Retention

6. Indiana (R-Lugar, lost primary) - Mourdock is in serious trouble here, and Donnelly seems like a good candidate. Team Blue would be happy here.

7. Virginia (D-Open, was Webb) - Allen is seriously losing ground here.

8. Missouri (D-McCaskill) - Akin ain't dropping out of the race, but a new poll still shows him up. McCaskill's playing clever, but eventually the NRSC will have to campaign here, which will give Akin a boost.

9. Nevada (R-Heller) - polling has been a mixed bag here. Yet Democrats really underpoll in Nevada.

Lean Retention

10. Wisconsin (D-Open, was Kohl) - Thompson is falling and hasn't gotten up, in the meantime Baldwin's starting to get a major polling advantage. It's starting to look good for Team D.

11. Connecticut (ID-Open, was Lieberman) - polling is looking tight, but McMahon's starting to get some scandals hurting her.

Likely Retention

12. Arizona (R-Open, was Kyl) - Carmona was leading in a Republican internal, yet other polls still show Flake in the lead. But with the Democrats starting to look stronger, it looks more favourable for Team Blue.

13. Ohio (D-Brown) - hard to see Mandel pulling this out in the end, however Brown's liberalness and Mandel's fundraising means that it isn't impossible for them to retain. Furthermore, this race should still get a lot of attention due to the president vote.

14. Florida (D-Bill Nelson) - hard to see Mack pulling this out in the end, however this race should still get a lot of attention due to the president vote.

Long Shots

15. New Mexico (D-Open, was Bingaman) - Wilson feels like more of a decoy rather than a threat.

16. New Jersey (D-Menendez) - given McMahon's momentum this race should be more competitive, but it doesn't look like it.

17. Hawaii (D-Open, was Akaka) - polling has been all over the place, but coattails should be enough for Hirono.

18. Michigan (D-Stabenow) - Republicans really blew it here.

19. Pennsylvania (D-Casey) - ditto, and Smith hasn't been elected like Hoestkra has.

20. West Virginia (D-Manchin) - the less said about Raese the better. Furthermore, West Virginia likes its Blue Dogs.

No Shots

21. Rhode Island (D-Whitehouse) - Whitehouse's fundraising has been pretty poor, but it's not enough to make this competitive.

22. Washington (D-Cantwell) - Cantwell seems well entrenched, and won the jungle primary by a big margin.

23. Texas (R-Open, was Hutchison) - YouGov says Cruz is up 19, he is safe.

24. Minnesota (D-Kloubchar) - if Kloubchar had poorer approvals it may have been interesting, but she'll win in a walk given how popular she is.

25. California (D-Feinstein) - leads are smaller than in other ultra-solid states, but no reason to think Feinstein is in trouble.

26. Mississippi (R-Wicker) - it's Mississippi. Enough said.

27. Delaware (D-Carper) - Carper is an institution in Delaware politics.

28. Vermont (ID-Sanders) - Sanders is an institution in Vermont politics.

29. New York (D-Gillibrand) - Gillibrand has been leading by margins of up to 40 points.

30. Wyoming (R-Barrasso) - Barrasso approvals are very strong and Wyoming is one of the reddest states in the Union.

31. Tennessee (R-Corker) - think DeMint/Greene 2010, with a smaller black population.

32. Utah (R-Hatch) - Howell made a pretty bad gaffe, and Romney will win here by 40 points.

33. Maryland (D-Cardin) - 3-party race and the independent is a former Republican. Yeah...

[morgieb]

OK, a different version this time.

All of Wyoming, Utah, Tennessee, Mississippi, Texas, Vermont, New York, Maryland, Delaware, California, Washington, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Hawaii and Minnesota will stay with their current party. The only ones which may differ are Rhode Island, where Whitehouse has poor fundraising, Hawaii, where the Republicans are running a former governor and West Virginia, where Obama is hated.

Nebraska will fall, although Kerrey has been trying to make up the deficit, he is way behind in the polls.

There are a few races where it may be competitive but it is highly unlikely to flip:

* Pennsylvania - Casey should've won this by 20, instead he'll be lucky to do so by 10. A poor campaign has killed him.
* New Jersey - no idea why this isn't more competitive, but it's been a long time since Republicans won Senate races in New Jersey.
* Michigan - could've been competitive, but the Republicans failed here in recruitment.
* New Mexico - Wilson feels more of a decoy rather than a threat. She hasn't led in any polls that I know about.

And a few races where it looks competitive but one side has the advantage....

* Florida - recruitment fail here. Would be even less likely to flip but it is in Florida, and WAA has it tied.
* Wisconsin - Baldwin starting to break away now. Maybe enough time for Thompson to claw back, but I dunno....
* Virginia - Kaine starting to break away now. The fact that there was no WAA poll released despite polling is not a good sign for Allen.
* Missouri - it feels like Akin is intentionally trying to lose.
* Ohio - one of the few races that has noticed Romney's comeback. Could be an upset.
* Arizona - Carmona is getting closer, but probably not quite close enough. But this
* Nevada - Berkley's scandals has hurt her hard.

Maine looks 'likely' to flip, but it isn't a certainty as King isn't running a good campaign. I'd say Massachusetts flips as well, but Brown could still easily win.

Now the toss-ups....

* North Dakota
* Montana
* Indiana
* Connecticut

A strange bunch! If I had to make predictions, I'd say the Pubbies pick them all up bar Connecticut.

[morgieb]

Maine: (R-Open [was Snowe]) Snowe retiring pushed this seat way open. While it looked competitive for a while, this has gone away. A third party race however is trickier to poll than a normal two-party race, as it's possible that many people will just vote for their candidate rather than the indie. Very likely Independent gain (I assume King caucuses with the Dems)
Massachusetts: (R-Scott Brown) Looking like the analomy of a Republican in Massachusetts will go away after this election. Warren has led most polls since the DNC. Very likely Democrat gain.
Rhode Island: (D-Whitehouse) It could be closer than most people expect, but a Republican isn't winning here, particularly without much funding. Very solidly Democrat.
Connecticut: (ID-Open [was Lieberman]) Thank f**k he's retiring. It was a toss-up for a while, but Murphy appears to have gotten the edge recently. Could Frankenstorm affect this however? Likely Democrat retention.
Vermont: (ID-Sanders) Why bother challenging Sanders? About as solidly Democrat as a race can be.
New York: (D-Gillibrand) She's leading by margins up to 40 points. Yeah...... About as solidly Democrat as a race can be.
New Jersey: (D-Menendez) Generally in New Jersey, most races look competitive but the Democrat usually wins. Except this time the race hasn't looked competitive from the polling. Solidly Democrat.
Pennsylvania: (D-Casey) God, his campaign has sucked. He should've won by 20, instead he'll be lucky to win by 10. Luckily, he's lead in all non-partisan polls. Likely Democrat hold.
West Virginia: (D-Manchin) Manchin is unpopular by large segments of his own party, but West Virginians still like their local Dems. Very very solidly Democrat.
Maryland: (D-Cardin) He's not the strongest candidate, but Maryland is very blue and the anti-Cardin vote is fragmented by a third party. The big question is whether Sobhoni can overtake the Republican. Very very solidly Democrat.
Delaware: (D-Carper) Well, at least the Pubbies didn't nominate "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell, eh? About as solidly Democrat as a race can be.
Virginia: (D-Open [was Webb]) An open seat in one of the purplest states in the nation, with two former Governors matching up against each other? Ultimate definition of a toss-up. Except now, Allen is behind or is tied in most polls. Tilting Democrat.
Ohio: (D-Sherrod Brown) A bit of a recruitment failure by the Pubbies here. As Mandel's fundraising suggests Brown is probably too liberal for Ohio, and a good Republican could have knocked him off. But Mandel has not run a good campaign, and is behind in most polls. Likely Democrat hold.
Indiana: (R-Open [was Lugar, lost primary]) A bit of a lol here. Lugar would've won here by 20-30 points, but Mourdock, who successfully primaried him, is struggling big time. Internals are painting an ugly picture for him. Maybe Pence/Romney's coattails will power him to victory, but his rape comments make it a lot harder now. Tossup, titling Democrat.
Wisconsin: (D-Open [was Kohl]) A former governor should easily beat a liberal lesbian on paper, but Thompson's campaign has been laughable. It's still quasi-competitive enough that a Bradley effect may make it tighter than it appears, but most polls show Baldwin with the edge. Lean Democrat hold.
Minnesota: (D-Kloubchar) Kloubchar is very popular and the Minnesotan Republican party is in damage control. Very very solidly Democrat.
Michigan: (D-Stabenow) I guess racism doesn't help people win races, eh? Solidly Democrat hold.
Missouri: (D-McCaskill) Oh lol. The Pubbies should've won here easily, instead it'll be a shocker if Akin wins due to his rape comments. The fact that the polls have been so bad for Obama means that Akin could ride on Romney's coattails, particularly if a Bradley effect exists here,  but it's not that likely. Likely Democrat hold.
Tennessee: (R-Corker) At least we never really had a chance here. Clayton is probably the worst major-party candidate running for the Senate. More interesting here is to see the third-party vote. About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
Mississippi: (R-Wicker) Regardless of who his candidate may be a namesake of, Mississippi is arguably the most polarised state in the nation. About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
Florida: (D-Bill Nelson) Mack should made this a race, but he's behind by high-single digits in the polls. Solidly Democrat hold.
Texas: (R-Open [was Bailey Hutchinson]) Cruz could potentially be a rising star in the Republican party. Very very solidly Republican hold.
North Dakota: (D-Open [was Conrad]) This should've been a slam dunk for the Pubbies. But Heitkamp has proven to be a great retail politican. Unfortuately, Romney's coattails may make it not enough, and indeed it's possible this may play something like the 08 Presidential race. Titling Republican.
Nebraska: (D-Open [was Ben Nelson]) Oh wow. A month ago this was a slam dunk for the Pubbies. Yet Fischer's scandals has given Kerrey some hope. It is probably not enough, however. Lean Republican.
Montana: (D-Tester) The biggest toss-up in the Senate? Possibly. Coat-tails may be enough for Rehberg to win, however. Toss-up, tilting Republican.
Wyoming: (R-Barrasso) Why did the Democrat bother here? About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
Utah: (R-Hatch) There are circumstances which Howell could make it competitive, but 2012 is not the year, and he made an insensitive gaffe about Hatch's age. About as solidly Republican as a race can be.
New Mexico: (D-Open [was Bingaman]) This state is only turning bluer, and most polls are showing Heinrich with a decent sized lead. Soldily Democrat hold.
Arizona: (R-Open [was Kyl]) Another gimme that the Pubbies blew, although in this case it is more down to Carmona's strengths than Flake's weaknesses. Coatails will probably be enough for Flake to get over the line, too. Lean Republican hold.
Nevada: (R-Heller) A rare race which the Democrat blew rather than the Pubbie. Berkley's corruption has made her a less strong candidate on paper than in practice. Yet coattails may be enough for her to get over the line, particularly given Nevada polls are generally R-leaning. Tossup, tilting Democrat.
California: (D-Feinstein) California is very blue these days, and the Pubbies didn't offer up much opposition. Very very solidly Democrat.
Washington: (D-Cantwell) Washington is pretty blue these days, and the Pubbies didn't offer up much opposition. Very very solidly Democrat.
Hawaii: (D-Open [was Akaka]) This state was just too blue for Lingle, particularly against a competent Democrat. Solidly Democrat hold.

[morgieb]

Alabama: No reason for Sessions to be in trouble. Safe R.

Alaska: Begich should be DOA - he only barely beat a corrupt incumbent in the worst Republican year since 1827. However other endangered Democrats have proven to be strong retail politicians, and the Tea Party could mess this up. Toss-up.

Arkansas: Pryor went uncontested last time. Won't this time. Although Arkansas is turning red hard, Pryor still has decent approvals and has a strong last name. Toss-up.

Colorado: Colorado seems to be turning blue, and the Colorado Republican party tends to nominate too unappetising candidates. Could be competitive if the mid-terms are ugly for the Dems, but Udall looks OK right now. Leans D.

Delaware: No reason for Coons to be in trouble. This race may even get O'Donnell again. Safe D.

Georgia: Georgian Democrats don't have a great bench, and while Chambliss isn't that well loved, he still has an advantage in a R-leaning state, particularly during the mid-terms. Likely R.

Idaho: No reason for Risch to be in trouble. Safe R.

Illinois: If Durbin retires, this race could get interesting, as the Democrats don't have a great bench here and the Republicans have a few interesting candidates. However, it is unlikely that Illinois will be willing to hand over both their Senate seats to Republicans. Safe D with Durbin, Likely D otherwise.

Iowa: Harkin's approvals are middling, but he generally fends off serious challenges to him and he's been in the game for a long time. Lean/Likely D.

Kansas: No reason for Roberts to be in trouble, and Kansas is too red to flip even if he does quit. Safe R.

Kentucky: McConnell's approvals are far from good, and Kentucky Democrats have a strong bench here but he has loads of cash and too many times has Kentucky felt like fools good to the Democrats. Lean/Likely R.

Louisiana: Landrieu is not in great shape - Louisiana is only getting redder (although it did swing towards the Dems in 2012) and received a closer call than most expected in 2008. She is a fighter however, having good approvals, and could turn the race into a local rather than a national race. Toss-up.

Maine: The maths here is simple - Collins wins easy if she runs again, but if she were primaried or quit it would be pick-up opportunity #1. Safe R with Collins, Likely D otherwise.

Massachusetts: If Kerry runs again he'll win easily. However, it's possible that Brown makes a comeback if he becomes SOS, although he'll get strong opposition and may be damaged goods from his 2012 Senate race. Safe D with Kerry, Tilt D otherwise.

Michigan: Levin is much too entrenched to lose, but if he retires, we have a barnstormer on our hands, as Michigan Democrats seem to lack decent candidates. Safe D with Levin, Toss-up otherwise.

Minnesota: Most Republicans would love to take out Franken, but he seems to be in a solid enough position to fight it off, and the Minnesota Republican party is in damage control. Leans D.

Mississippi: Could get interesting in a primary, as Cochran isn't really a firebreather and is getting old, but it won't flip to the Democrats despite its 2012 swing. Safe R.

Montana: Baucus doesn't have great approvals, but he's been around for a long time and the Republican party in Montana is surprisingly weak. Tilt D.

Nebraska: No reason for Johanns to be in trouble. Safe R.

New Hampshire: Will look interesting if the tide turns against the Democrats, as New Hampshire is generally a strong indicator of a national tide, and Shaheen hasn't been fundraising so well, but she is probably the favourite as of now. Leans D.

New Jersey: Unclear whether Lautenberg runs again, but New Jersey is too blue for even an open seat to become a major opportunity. Safe D with Lautenberg or Booker, Leans/Likely D otherwise.

New Mexico: Udall looks in good shape and New Mexico is only getting bluer. Likely D.

North Carolina: Hagan's approvals are weak and she is running in a reddish state, but it is unclear how strong of an opponent she'll get. Tilt D.

Oklahoma: There are some interesting candidates in Oklahoma that could run if Inhofe retired, but Oklahoma feels too red for them to actually win. Safe R with Inhofe, Likely R otherwise.

Oregon: Merkley seems rather weak, but the Republicans lack obvious candidates in Oregon and a base that's too conservative. Leans D.

Rhode Island: No reason that Reed should be in trouble. Safe D.

South Carolina: While it's unlikely that Graham will be the candidate, Democrats have a weak bench in South Carolina. Safe R with Graham, Likely R otherwise.

South Dakota: Ouch. Not only is Johnson in poor health, he is likely to get a serious challenge in Rounds. A prime pick-up opportunity for Team R. Toss-up with Johnson, Likely R otherwise.

Tennessee: Hard to see Alexander being challenged seriously, and it's unclear that the Democrats will seriously challenge an open seat anyway. Safe R with Alexander, Likely R otherwise.

Texas: No reason for Cornyn to be in trouble. Safe R.

Virginia: Warner should win easy, but if he were to run for Governor we'd have a barnstormer on our hands, perhaps even turning red. Safe D with Warner, Tilt R otherwise.

West Virginia: The state is trending red hard, and it's unlikely that Rockefeller runs again. However, the Democrats still have a decent bench here. Toss-up.

Wyoming: No reason for Enzi to be in trouble, and a Democrat isn't winning Wyoming in a long time. Safe R.

[morgieb]

UPDATE:

Alabama: No change. Safe R.

Alaska: This depends on the candidates. The good news for Team Red is that Treadwell is in, who at the very least knows how to fund a campaign. The bad news is that Miller looks like getting in too, who is a nutjob and probably couldn't win. No doubt the Dems have to try to defend the seat. Until we get polling, it's foolish to label this as anything other than a Toss-up.

Arkansas: Well, this seat has become a lot better for Team Blue. Griffin isn't running, and Womack and Cotton aren't sounding so pumped up to run. Darr is, but his strength remains questionable. Lean D unless a stronger Republican changes his mind.

Colorado: No real news here to talk about. Unclear whether a strong Republican runs, or if one did, whether it would win a primary. Lean/Likely D.

Delaware: No change. Safe D.

Georgia: Big news - Chambliss is retiring. Now the question is - what sort of candidate do the sides nominate? I for one can see Carter or Barrow being competitive against someone like Price or Braun. But you'd favor Georgia to 1. elect Republicans in mid-terms, and 2. it's unclear what sort of Republican runs. Lean/Likely R.

Hawaii: Bigger news - Inouye died. While he requested that Hanabusa take his seat, instead Schatz was appointed. While this is Hawaii, a divisive primary is possible, and that could somewhat impact the race. But still, Likely/Safe D.

Idaho: No change. Safe R.

Illinois: Sounding more like Durbin is running again. Safe D unless Durbin pulls a fast one on us.

Iowa: More big news - Harkin is retiring. The good news is that King looks like he will be nominated, and he seems unelectable to Iowa at large. But if Iowan Republicans elect someone sane, watch out. Lean D.

Kansas: For all the talk about primarying Chambliss before he quit, I'm surprised there's not a lot of talk about primarying Roberts. Although he is conservative, he's not a Tea Partier, and there has been a lot of 'cleansing' of the Republican Party in Kansas. Still, this is Kansas, so any Republican should really win. Likely/Safe R.

Kentucky: Looks like Judd will be the nominee, who while can force McConnell to spend, will probably flop pretty hard. Unless a stronger candidate runs, McConnell is out of danger. Likely R.

Louisiana: No major news here surprisingly, but the story remains the same. Are Landrieu's approvals gonna be enough against a strong Republican candidate? Toss-up.

Maine: No news here. Polling has confirmed what many suspect. Safe R with Collins, Likely D otherwise.

Massachusetts: Major news here - Kerry is becoming the SoS. We don't know if Brown runs, but if he does, the Democrats are in major trouble even with much of the party supporting Markey. Safe D without Brown, Lean R with Brown.

Michigan: No news here. Safe D with Levin, Toss-up otherwise.

Minnesota: Most good Republicans are taking a pass on challenging Franken, which means that it's hard to see any attempt to knock him out succeeding. Likely D.

Mississippi: No change. Safe R.

Montana: Haven't heard much about this race. Leans D.

Nebraska: No change. Safe R.

New Hampshire: Haven't heard much about this race. Leans D.

New Jersey: This could get interesting. Despite being 90 years old and losing heavily to Booker in a primary, Lautenberg does not want to go out quietly into the night, and a decisive primary could get a Republican in a strong position. Dems need to decide who to support, in case it gets too nasty. Leans/Likely D.

New Mexico: No change. Likely/Safe D.

North Carolina: This seat has to be giving Republicans headaches. Hagan is pretty anonymous and not particularly well-liked, and North Carolina still leans Republican. Yet most of the obvious candidates aren't very strong. With that said, Hagan was little known back in 2008, so it's winnable. Leans D.

Oklahoma: Pretty sure Inhofe is running again. He'll get his usual total in the high-50's. Safe R.

Oregon: Merkley shouldn't have much to fear. The stronger Republican candidates are unlikely to run, and although he is rather anonymous to Oregon at a whole, he isn't unpopular, and he should get strong progressive support. Likely D.

Rhode Island: No change. Safe D.

South Carolina-A: Graham has to be cheering. First, he gains conservative support due to his attacks on Bengazi and Susan Rice. Then, DeMint retires, giving the Tea Party a shot at a new seat, and allowing any Democratic challengers to take a shot at a newly minted Senator. A primary challenge is possible, but no longer probable. Safe R.

South Carolina-B: This is Tim Scott's new seat. Given this is South Carolina, he probably doesn't have much to fear, but it's possible that racists stay at home given his skin colour, and an effective open seat could lead to a strong Democrat jumping in. But the bench for Democrats is even weaker than most Southern states. Likely R.

South Dakota: No news on Johnson thus far. He could hold on, but it'll be tough, and if he retires, it's effectively over. Toss-up with Johnson, Likely R otherwise.

Tennessee: Alexander giving a warm reception to the president may make for some campaign fodder from the right, but I don't know if any Dem could win Tennessee now. Safe R with Alexander, Likely R otherwise.

Texas: No change. Safe R.

Virginia: Warner has decided to keep his job rather than run for Governor. Given his popularity, he is safe despite Virginia being a swing state. Safe D.

West Virginia: Game over? This seat has turned ugly fast for the Democrats - not only did the Republicans get their best candidate possible in Capito, Rockefeller also chose to retire. Will be very hard to hold unless Capito gets primaried, which is possible I suppose. Likely R with Capito, Leans D with someone more conservative.

Wyoming: No change. Safe R.

In short:

* West Virginia will most likely flip barring a primary defeat for Capito.
* South Dakota will be tough to hold even with Johnson, and becomes pick-up opportunity #1 without him probably.
* Alaska depends on who wins the primary - Begich will be in trouble against Treadwell, but probably safe against Miller.
* Louisiana is hard to say. Personal popularity wasn't enough to save Brown or Chafee, but it might be in a different year for Landrieu. It depends on who runs, as the field hasn't simmered down yet.
* Massachusetts requires Brown. If he runs, he could probably win given that Markey won't be running in a presidential year and probably isn't as exciting to progressives as Warren. But it won't be safe, and if he doesn't, it's off the table.

Those are the big 5. If they do win all of those, it's 50-50, and the Republicans need just one more seat to regain control. And there are loads of seats to choose from or also as a back-up....

* Arkansas - read Louisiana, except we have got a clearer view of the field, and looks pretty weak for Republicans.
* Montana should be winnable, but there's a distinct lack of good candidates.
* North Carolina is in a similar boat.
* Michigan will be tough to hold if Levin retires.
* New Hampshire is notoriously volatile, but if that goes then it's a clear sign that Republicans have already won control.
* Harkin is retiring, so Iowa will be hard to hold unless King wins the primary.
* Colorado could flip with a good candidate (but I doubt one exists).
* Hawaii is effectively open, but it is Hawaii.
* New Jersey could get interesting if the primary gets too messy.

For the Democrats...

* Georgia could flip if the Republicans nominate a bad candidate, and the Democrats find a good one.
* Kentucky should be vulnerable, but not with Judd.
* South Carolina is effectively open, so not unwinnable.

[morgieb]

Would Judd actually win the primary, though?

Why wouldn't she without stronger candidates? She's got the cash at least...

[morgieb]

Idaho: No change. Safe D.

I was unaware of that situation, but everything else about your analysis is excellent.

Oops.

[morgieb]

I guess this is what apathy does to you. 7 months without an update

1. South Dakota - Rounds's numbers have been weaker then expected, but he's still a fair way ahead in the polls and Weiland needs a scandal or a gaffe to become really competitive. The only contingency is if a stronger Democrat changes its mind, or (more likely) Pressler gets in and makes this a 3-way race.

2. West Virginia - given the trends here and the Pubbies finding their one strong candidate in West Virginia, it's safe to say that Capito is looking good. Will she be the nominee though? McGeehan could give Tennant a big chance of keeping the seat in Democratic hands, though a Tea Party candidate still won comfortably in the similar Kentucky.

3. Montana - we need some polling here. For now, given the state's partisan lean and the fact that the Dems will have a decisive primary, the Republicans have the edge.

4. Arkansas - most polls show Pryor leading but mired in the mid-40's, which suggests that Cotton will start to lead when he gets more name recognition. I haven't liked the campaign he has run either, and he smells like the political twin of his former Senate partner.

5. Alaska - hard to get a really strong vibe here. The polling has suggested that the real candidates are close (and holding Begich to low numbers, perhaps suggesting the edge), but the Tea Partiers will be flogged. The race itself however feels rather low-profile, and it's hard to see who has the ground advantage.

6. Louisiana - Cassidy isn't getting much momentum, and Landrieu is looking better than she did for much of the past few years. However, the prevailing meme will be whether the race is a referendum on Obama or a referendum on Landrieu, which will keep this close until election day.

7. North Carolina - Hagan has poor approvals, but the rest of the field are heavily tied to the Republican caucus in North Carolina, which is unpopular and controversial. A strong candidate will hurt Hagan badly though.

8. Georgia - depends on who the Republicans nominate. Although Nunn is still untested, she is hitting the right waves. At the end of the day the state is still too red for the Republicans to lose with Kingston or Handel, but with Gingrey or Broun, watch out. A messy primary could also aid Nunn too, even if a 'mainstream' candidate win.

9. Kentucky - most polling is showing McConnell in a world of pain, and his approvals are not good, but he 1. still has a lot of money and 2. is running in a state where national Dems are unpopular. Grimes can win with a well-executed campaign, and in her favour she is hitting the right waves, but the advantage still rests with McConnell.

10. Michigan - polling is showing this race to be close, but many of the polls have been conducted by local outfits which are horribly unreliable and pretty favourable to the Republicans.

11. Iowa - once we get here we get to the stage where the races are clearly favouring the incumbent party - there doesn't appear to be many second-tier or bolter races on the horizon. Braley lacks real opposition right now, but this is still an open seat in a purple (although Democratic tilting) state. This race can become very competitive.

12. New Hampshire - Shaheen is looking good right now, so barring a wave it is hard to see her losing. Waves are however very noticeable in New Hampshire, which will keep the race on the radar screen for now. Theoretically Scott Brown could run, but it seems unlikely and the way he's behaving since losing his Senate seat doesn't indicate interest in running.

13. Colorado - Udall should be fairly safe, but there are signs that Colorado is growing weary of Democrats. If the national climate favours the Republicans, it could get interesting, but the Republicans probably want a candidate.

14. Minnesota - Franken should be safe, but he is still somewhat controversial and his opponent has raised decent money. This race is one to watch, but it's unlikely to be competitive, given the fact that Minnesota Republicans are in damage control and Franken has good approvals.

15. Oregon - Merkley is running against some semi-viable candidates, but I doubt they are strong enough to defeat him. Merkley seems to be in reasonable shape.

16. New Mexico - hard to see who can challenge Udall here. I'm keeping this up high-ish however as New Mexico is more of a leaner state, but it's hard to see how Udall loses. We're getting to the stage where the incumbent party won't lose.

17. Virginia - Warner is super popular in Virginia, and the state is only becoming more blue.

18. Nebraska - it's an open seat, however Kerrey lost one by 15 points against a fairly marginal incumbent last year and the Democrats lack an opponent, making this more or less a hold for the Republicans.

19. Wyoming - the Cheney name is not well-loved in Wyoming, and a primary win for Mary Cheney could give an opening to the right Democrat, although it is hard to see who exactly that is.

* Note: This was written before I saw the new primary poll. This race has fallen down on the radar screen since then.

20. Hawaii - the primary is getting nasty, but this is still Hawaii. Given Lingle lost an open seat by 30 points last year, what kind of Republican could win in Hawaii?

21. Maine - Collins will walk to victory if she is still the nominee. I suppose it's theoretically possible that she loses the primary or pulls a Snowe, but I haven't heard anything giving that a chance.

22. South Carolina-A - a primary challenge for Graham seems likely, but it's unclear how viable said challenge is, and even so, it's unclear a state which was willing to elect Mark Sanford would vote for a Dem over a Tea Party nutter or give the Dems a strong candidate.

23. Tennessee - possible that Alexander gets a primary challenge, but the Dems don't have a candidate.

24. Texas - possible that Cornyn gets a primary challenge, but the Dems don't have a candidate.

25. Mississippi - we know that Cochran will get a primary challenge, and indeed he could still retire. The Democrats do have some compelling potential candidates, but none of them are showing interest in the event of a contingency.

UPDATE: It sounds like Cochran is leaning towards retirement, and Childers is looking at running. Moves up to the teens then.

26. Kansas - possible that Roberts gets a primary challenge, but the Dems don't have a candidate.

27. Oklahoma - might Inhofe change his mind about running again given the horrible news regarding his son? Even if he does though, it's still Oklahoma, and the Dems will need to scramble to find non-token opposition anyway.

28. New Jersey - Booker won a special election by an underwhelming margin, but it's still hard to see a compelling Republican running. If one does though, the race will move up significantly.

29. Massachusetts - Markey hasn't quite clicked with the Massachusetts electorate, but he won a special election by a reasonable margin, and Massachusetts really lacks Republicans.

30. South Carolina-B - Scott has yet to win an election, but it's still South Carolina. The Dems will probably pump their resources into the governor's race or looking for a contingency in case Graham gets primaried.

31. Delaware - Coons isn't super entrenched, but the Republicans lack a candidate.

32. Idaho - given LaRocco lost by over 20 points for the race for the last open seat, it's hard to see a Democrat knocking off an incumbent.

33. Illinois - Durbin is well entrenched.

34. Alabama - Sessions is well entrenched, and it's Alabama.

35. Rhode Island - Reed is well entrenched, and it's Rhode Island.

[morgieb]

1. South Dakota (D-Open) - it doesn't look like Pressler's getting much traction, which prevents any chance of this being a weird

2. West Virginia (D-Open) - barring a miraculous primary upset, this is looking like a coronation for Capito.

3. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Pryor's campaign is collapsing pretty quickly, and he's trailing Cotton in the polls. I doubt spending much money here is worth it.

4. Montana (D-Walsh) - haven't really heard much about this race recently. Walsh being an incumbent is good news, but his campaign has had a rocky start, he's not really entrenched and Montana is fairly red.

5. Alaska (D-Begich) - Begich is still ahead in the polls, but he is mired in the early to mid-40's in a red state. I'm growing more pessimistic about this race.

6. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - under heavy attack from the AFP and other right-wing attack ads, Landrieu has gotten very unpopular. However, I still suspect that the jungle primary will have the final say - she probably loses if her vote is the decider, wins if it isn't.

7. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - this race is getting more worrying for the Democrats. Attacked heavily by the Koch brothers and the AFP, Hagan has probably been 'defined', and in a R-leaning state, that isn't a good thing. The one good news? Brannon is far too right-wing to win in North Carolina, and Tillis is still quite tied to the Republican caucus ruinning the state government and isn't liked by the base. Still should be tight.

8. Michigan (D-Open) - no doubt the polling isn't good for Peters, but the state is still D-leaning, and this race is far from developed - Peters still somewhat unknown, Land not really defined yet. But the bad polls have been going on for long enough to not think of this as a toss-up.

9. Georgia (R-Open) - this race depends more on the Republicans than the Democrats. No doubt Nunn is a good candidate, but this state is still quite Republican, and if a normal Republican (i.e. Kingston, Perdue or Handel) win the primary, they probably win the general. But if the Tea Party get their candidate, watch out.

10. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - is McConnell in trouble? Yes. But he's still got $$$ and is running in a state that votes Republican pretty solidly federally. Whether Grimes gets over the line comes down to how well she handles being nuked by McConnell.

11. Colorado (D-Udall) - I flagged this as a race to watch last time I did this, but I did not expect Udall to be in as big trouble as he is now. First the polling showed him to be potentially vulnerable, then Gardner, their strongest candidate, jumped in. While it remains to be seen how good of a candidate he is in practice, this is one race the Democrats should start to worry about.

12. Iowa (D-Open) - this is one state where the Republicans dropped the ball. On paper, this should've been a great chance for a pickup as it's an open seat in a purple (albeit with a blue tinge) state. But the Dems concealed around one candidate, and all the Republicans got were a bunch of second and third-tier candidates. Loseable in a wave, but probably won't fall in neutral circumstances.

13. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - still think Brown is over-rated. Even if the year is bad for the Dems, doubt it'll be bad enough for fairly popular incumbents to lose in D-leaning states.

14. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - Childers getting in makes this race a lot more interesting. It remains to be seen how crazy one can be to blow a race in Mississippi, but at least we have a contingency plan here. Obviously if Cochran wins the primary, he should win easily.

15. Virginia (D-Warner) - Gillespie makes Scott Brown look like the most under-appreciated candidate of all time. Warner has little to fear.

16. Oregon (D-Merkley) - apparently a few potentially compelling candidates are interested, but none of them are particularly well-known, and unless the cycle goes from bad to nightmarish for the Democrats, any chances that this race becomes dangerous for Merkley seems far fetched.

17. Minnesota (D-Franken) - McFadden does have decent fundraising, but he's still a third-tier candidate at best and the base isn't big on him. Franken should be safe.

18. New Mexico (D-Udall) - yeah, nah. No-one who could even make Udall campaign looks like running.

19. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - while the primary is still very unpredictable, either Schatz or Hanabusa will most likely win the general.

20. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - I did see one poll which showed that this race might become interesting if Alexander got primaried, it is only one data point, we don't have a contingency plan ala Mississippi and Alexander doesn't look to be in too much danger in a primary anyway.

21. Kansas (R-Roberts) - Roberts looks pretty safe in a primary, though PPP did show his approvals low and a potentially interesting race if he does get Tea Partied.

22. Maine (R-Collins) - barring a major primary upset, Collins is safe. While Bellows trying to run as a strong progressive might be an interesting strategy for future races, I doubt she gets much traction.

23. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - even if Graham does get primaried, there are no signs that the Democrats look interested in competing here.

24. Nebraska (R-Open) - on paper, an open seat should be interesting, but the Democrats don't have a candidate.

25. New Jersey (D-Booker) - Booker won by an underwhelming margin in 2013, but he looks safe this time around. Besides, he's cozied up to the NJRP enough to avoid serious opposition.

26. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - although this is an open seat, and Oklahoma do have a couple of interesting Democrats who could hypothetically make this race interesting, it doesn't look like they have any interest in running.

27. Massachusetts (D-Markey) - Markey might be uninspiring, but this is Massachusetts and he hasn't really done anything to offend his constituents.

28. Texas (R-Cornyn) - now that Cornyn has won his primary, he should be safe. Alameel has money, but he isn't anywhere near seasoned enough to test Cornyn.

29. Delaware (D-Coons) - Coons isn't super-entrenched, but he's running in a blue state without a proper candidate.

30. South Carolina-B (R-Scott) - Democrats have better opportunities in other statewide offices.

31. Illinois (D-Durbin) - Durbin is entrenched.

32. Idaho (R-Risch) - it's Idaho.

33. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe) - Inhofe is entrenched and it's Oklahoma.

34. Alabama (R-Sessions) - Sessions is entrenched and it's Alabama.

35. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - Reed is entrenched and it's Rhode Island.

36. Wyoming (R-Enzi) - Enzi is entrenched and it's Wyoming.

[morgieb]

OK, time to put this back up again for the October update. Will try to update regularly, but I may not. Depends on how I'm interested in this.

Safe Pickup

1. West Virginia (D-Open) - the West Virginia of old just isn't what it was. Time to write Tennant off, Capito will win in double digits.

2. Montana (D-Open) - oh dear. Well, John Walsh was forced out due to a plagiarism scandal. Now we have a Some Chick by the name of Amanda Curties. Have this below West Virginia as she is raising decent money, and as she's little known there is more room for a miracle comeback. But, nah.

Lean Pickup

3. South Dakota (D-Open) - now this is getting juicy. Yes the Rounds+3 poll may have been an outlier, but SurveyUSA have a very good record so I don't think you can dismiss it right out of hand. Rounds is still favoured, but the DCCC are spending money here, and the dynamics of a 3-way race are interesting. Don't think Weiland/Pressler withdraw, though. If they did then the race will become increasingly hard for Rounds to win.

4. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - he's the sort of candidate that excites few people and the polls aren't looking too great anyway. While Arkansas state-wide races are a bit of anomaly in America with regards to the age gap, I'm not confident of his chances of pulling off a win when he's behind by margins outside the MoE consistently. Triage time?

Tilt Pickup

5. Kansas (R-Roberts) - WTF? Yes, I was stunned too to see this race seem a toss-up. But Orman caught Roberts napping, Roberts is running an awful campaign and Orman doesn't have the issue of being a nasty Democrat (technically). While two new polls have Roberts in a better position, they seem to be outliers. Still enough time for Orman to bust, and in any case it may be easier to say you're voting for an independent than actually doing it. But this looks Pat Roberts's hardest race in about 30 years (or something).

6. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - not really sure how to judge this race when I haven't seen a lot of polls recently. But I think the path to 50%+1 in a run-off seems hard to achieve. Still, you wouldn't write off Landrieu until she loses.

7. Alaska (D-Begich) - hard to judge Alaskan polling even at the best of times. The polls do say however that Sullivan is ahead. Luckily, the Governor race is contested, so turnout seems more likely.

8. Iowa (D-Open) - what a debacle of a campaign from Braley. His polls are very bad, when he should've won reasonably easily. Will be surprising if he does come back, though Ernst is untested enough that she could still shoot herself in the foot.

Pure Tossup

9. Colorado (D-Udall) - again, this race the Dems probably should've won in the end, but now it looks like a photo finish. Why I don't know. But this looks the closest race of the night.

Tilt Retention

10. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - in general, Hagan's lead has been consistent enough to hold off Tillis. The only worry is that neither candidate seems really inspiring, so turnout will be very important here. Without a governor's race, and with the House really badly gerrymandered, the excitement gap will probably lean Republican, so Hagan is hardly out of the woods yet.

11. Georgia (R-Open) - is Perdue dropping the ball, Bruce Braley style? He's made some very weird comments lately, and is looking very out of touch. Already we're seeing polls narrow to an extent where it's basically a dead heat. The two things in his favour are - 1. it's close enough to the election that it may be harder to target the gaffes to the required impact, and 2. the runoff rule, which hurts in particular in Georgia due to the demographics.

Lean Retention

12. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - just when you thought that McConnell was looking safe, Survey USA has Grimes back ahead. Now, that could be an outlier, but there is still enough going for Grimes to make this race look interesting until next month.

Likely Retention

13. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - probably the one race which looks like it could be a smokey. While Brown is close enough to Shaheen that things could get interesting, most of Shaheen's leads are above the MoE and Brown has lost a lot of credibility in his run in New Hampshire. I would like to see some reputable pollsters poll here though.

Safe Retention

14. Michigan (D-Open) - while most people thought Peters would break away eventually, it is still alarming how Land collapsed. You'd imagine that there was still a chance of an upset here, which I can't honestly say now.

Everything after 14 is honestly safe as houses and I can't be bothered really rating them.

[morgieb]

Safe Pickup

1. West Virginia (D-Open)

2. Montana (D-Open)

Likely Pickup

3. South Dakota (D-Open) - looks like the polls showing this close were too optimistic. Rounds should win somewhat comfortably.

4. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Pryor's clearly behind in every poll I've seen. RIP, HP.

Tilt Pickup

5. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - run-off could be Landrieu's saving grace.

6. Colorado (D-Udall) - oh dear. Yes Colorado Dems have a history of closing well, but the current voting numbers looks really pessimistic and Gardner ain't Ken Buck.

7. Alaska (D-Begich)

8. Iowa (D-Open) - closest race so far. Will get interesting.

Tilt Retention

9. Kansas (R-Roberts) - Roberts has caught up to a reasonable degree. While he's only pegged it back enough to be a tie,

10. North Carolina (D-Hagan)

Lean Retention

11. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - starting to get interesting. This state is historically rather volatile so an upset wouldn't surprise, though the night would have to be very bad to make it happen.

12. Georgia (R-Open) - Perdue looks better now. Outside chance of him even avoiding a run-off, though the early vote numbers look promising for Team D.

Likely Retention

13. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - polls are looking very solid for him now, he should be fine.

14. Virginia (D-Warner) - might this be closer than most people expect? 2 new polls have him up by underwhelming margins, and there's a lack of exciting races here which may hurt Dem turnout.....

Safe Retention

15. New Mexico (D-Udall) - Weh is sorta reputable, and one poll showed this in kinda interesting territory, but probably nothing to really fear from Udall.

16. Minnesota (D-Franken) - possible bolter I guess, but unlike comparable races there is an incumbent Democrat governor here that is popular and should mean there won't be much of a wave here.

17. Illinois (D-Durbin) - Durbin's numbers are rather underwhelming, but no reason to believe he is in danger.

18. Michigan (D-Open) - in the Spring this was considered a toss-up. Think about that.

19. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - mainly because the Dem candidate is half-way reputable, in reality this is Mississippi and Cochran is well entrenched. I would've liked to see some polling here though.

20. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - mainly because the Dem was talked about as a potential candidate in the past and Graham isn't very popular, in reality though Graham will win fairly easily as this is South Carolina and it's not trending D that fast.

21. New Jersey (D-Booker) - as this is New Jersey, Booker might not win by a huge margin, but he'll win regardless.

22. Massachusetts (D-Markey) - Markey's not inspiring but he's safe.

23. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe) - Inhofe isn't that well liked, but this is Oklahoma.

24. Oregon (D-Merkley) - what a failure Wehby turned out to be. LOL Politico.

25. Texas (R-Cornyn) - Cornyn is reasonably well entrenched and Texas ain't turning blue that fast.

26. Delaware (D-Coons) - Reps don't really exist in Delaware anymore.

27. South Carolina-B (R-Scott) - Scott I imagine is more well-liked than Graham, and he's facing a black anyway.

28. Nebraska (R-Open) - Sasse should be a rising star in the Republican party. This cycle seems to favour those who can appeal to moderates and conservatives, and Sasse has that.

29. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - Johnson is out of step for the state, and Lankford (unlike Inhofe) hasn't done anything yet to upset certain Okies.

30. Maine (R-Collins) - Collins is super entrenched.

31. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - Gordon Ball is not a serious candidate.

32. Idaho (R-Risch) - it's Idaho.

33. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - it's Hawaii. Besides, Cavasso is not a serious candidate, and Ige winning his primary probably helps nullify significnat backlash in the Asian community due to the circumstances around Schatz's appointment.

34. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - it's Rhode Island, and Reed is well entrenched.

35. Wyoming (R-Enzi) - it's Wyoming, and Enzi is well well entrenched.

36. Alabama (R-Sessions) - well done, Jeff Sessions. You are the only major party candidate to avoid a Democratic challenger.

[morgieb]

1. Illinois (R-Kirk) - while most people shouldn't take Kirk's seat for granted, he's in a lot of trouble for re-election. As this is Illinois, a good Democrat (i.e. Bustos or Madigan) will probably be able to defeat him, but he can still survive if the wrong candidate is found.

2. Wisconsin (R-Johnson) - the signs are not good for Johnson - he's not as loved by the base as Walker, he isn't a good fit for the state and unlike say Toomey he hasn't moderated. The two saving graces for Johnson are that 1. Wisconsin isn't as Democratic as Illinois and 2. apart from Feingold and Kind (neither of whom are certainties to run) the Dems bench here is rather weak.

3. Nevada (D-Reid) - if Sandoval jumps in this probably escalates to #1. But if he doesn't, Reid can probably go scorched earth against other potential Rep candidates, particularly if they aren't particularly experienced at running campaigns. For now, it's a toss-up, but it will probably move one direction or another soon enough. Dems chances will arguably improve if Reid retires, as he isn't popular.

4. Pennsylvania (R-Toomey) - this will probably depend on what night the Dems are having nationwide. Toomey has moderated fairly significantly since joining the Senate and would stand a good chance at re-election, but Sestak will give him a run for his money, and a good night nationwide for the Dems will probably help wash Pennsylvania in their wave.

5. New Hampshire (R-Ayotte) - Ayotte's approvals surprised me - I thought she was way too conservative (particularly on foreign policy related matters) for the state as a whole. But she is very popular. With the right candidate the Dems can definitely win, but I don't know much about their bench apart from Hassan, Kuster and CSP.

6. North Carolina (R-Burr) - Burr has been around for over ten years and he still isn't very well-known. While he could easily survive, a strong campaign from a solid Dem could easily knock him off. And IMO we aren't short of candidates here.

7. Colorado (D-Bennet) - Bennet is a fairly underwhelming incumbent, but the Dems overperformed expectations here in 2014, the Pubs don't have a great bench here (particularly with Gardner already holding one seat), and it is a Presidential year. For now Bennet deserves favouritism, but if the Pubs find a strong candidate.....

8. Florida (R-Rubio) - incumbency and the uselessness of the FDP probably means that Rubio will win, unless Murphy or Graham take a plunge. A potential Rubio retirement to run for President probably won't have a significant effect on the race.

9. Ohio (R-Portman) - Ohio Dems don't have a great bench, and Portman has played up his moderation rather well. He should probably win unless it's a very good night for us nationwide.

10. Missouri (R-Blunt) - hard to call. From memory Blunt was rather unpopular, and the Dems still have a bench here. Missouri isn't quite the swing state it once was though, and Nixon has lost a lot of appeal recently. Would like some polling here.

11. Georgia (R-Isakson) - Isakson will probably be favoured if he doesn't retire, but if he does there are a few good candidates the Dems can run here, particularly if Georgian Republicans pick the wrong candidate. But the 50%+1 is a killer, even in a Presidential year.

12. Arizona (R-McCain) - McCain's apparently running again, but he is about as popular as AIDS now in Arizona. Accordingly I think it is somewhat unlikely that he survives a primary. Recent history has shown Arizona as the Democratic equivalent of New Jersey - we'll always look competitive but we won't actually win the state. Unless Kirkpatrick or Sinema can be convinced to give up their seats, or the Pubs find someone really awful, the Pubs will probably retain it.

13. Kentucky (R-Paul) - McConnell's bigger than expected win here ought to give the Dems a reality check about their chances here. If Paul runs it's arguably not worth competing for. If he doesn't, then we still have a few good candidates we can run here, though Massie/Barr would still be favoured.

14. Alaska (R-Murkowski) - will be more interesting in a primary. If Murkowski wins the primary or runs as an independent, she'll win. But if she loses the primary, a solid Dem (if they can find one) will give whoever primaries her (let's face it, they'll probably be a right-winger) a fight. It will require a lot to go the Dems way to win this state, but it's not entirely out of the question.

15. Iowa (R-Grassley) - Grassley will win if he runs again, and he says he will. I suppose he could backflip though, in which case it's a toss-up, perhaps titling Dem (as long as they find a good candidate)

16. Washington (D-Murray) - the Republicans have a few good candidates that could be competitive against Murray, but in a Presidential year when someone as moderate as Rob McKenna couldn't win, they would be serious underdogs and probably wouldn't run a kamikaze misson to defeat Murray. But Murray could get upset if the night is good for the Republicans.

17. Indiana (R-Coats) - Coats might retire, but given Donnelly could only win by 4 against a candidate who made a rape gaffe, this state is pretty hard for the Dems to win. Their bench, unless Evan Bayh runs isn't great either.

18. Arkansas (R-Boozman) - Democrats probably need Mike Beebe to run to make this competitive, which is unlikely. That said if he does we have a barnstormer on our hands.

19. Louisiana (R-Vitter) - this seat will likely be open, but who can we run here apart from the Landrieu's? Even they probably won't be able to beat a reasonably reputable Republican for a Senate race these days.

20. Utah (R-Lee) - Lee's approvals are pretty poor by Utah standards, and he could face a messy primary. Still unless Matheson runs Utah is basically impossible for Dems to win.

21. Connecticut (D-Blumenthal) - Blumenthal shouldn't be in much danger (I mean Foley couldn't beat a relatively unpopular Malloy in two very good years for the Republicans), but his margin might not be as big as other candidates.

22. Kansas (R-Moran) - Moran shouldn't get caught napping like Roberts almost was. Orman will probably get crushed if he tried again.

23. California (D-Boxer) - only risk here is the top two primary system assuming Boxer retires - there's a very outside chance that it might cough up two Republicans for the general election if too many Dems run. I expect though that the Dems would clear the field better if a Senate seat was at risk rather than say a House seat.

24. Maryland (D-Mikulski) - Mikulski might retire...and Maryland did just elect a Republican governor. Still, it's hard to imagine a replacement Dem candidate being as awful as Brown, and Maryland is still very blue.

25. Vermont (D-Leahy) - Leahy might retire, but it's Vermont. I think most reputable Vermont Republicans would find it easier to knock off Shumlin than to pick up a Senate seat.

26. Alabama (R-Shelby) - Shelby might retire, but who the hell can run for the Dems in Alabama? All I hope is that we can find a candidate that isn't a turncoat (so better recruitment than 2014, basically).

27. Idaho (R-Crapo) - Crapo's drink-driving conviction might lead to primary trouble, but any Republican will win easily in Idaho.

28. Oregon (D-Wyden) - while Oregon is a bit too polarised for Wyden to win his races by mega-landslides, he is extremely entrenched in Oregon, and the state hasn't really acted like a swing state lately.

29. North Dakota (R-Hoeven) - Hoeven is a great fit for North Dakota. He'll win a second term easily.

30. South Carolina (R-Scott) - Scott should be safe in a state where he just won his race for the Senate easily and the Dems don't have a bench.

31. Oklahoma (R-Lankford) - it's Oklahoma, and Lankford won his race in a walk last time around.

32. New York (D-Schumer) - come back to the DSCC plz. He's completely safe in a state where the Dems have won every Senate race in over 10 years by overwhelming margins.

33. South Dakota (R-Thune) - he failed to get a candidate last election. Maybe he does this election, but he'll still be completely safe.

34. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - it's Hawaii, and Schatz won his race by an overwhelming margin in a terrible year for the Dems.