who will win - MA
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:37:11 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  who will win - MA
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: who will win
#1
Scott Brown
 
#2
Democratic nominee
 
#3
other
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: who will win - MA  (Read 5101 times)
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 30, 2011, 04:16:33 PM »

who will win
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2011, 04:25:37 PM »

Scott Brown.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2011, 04:26:46 PM »

Elizabeth Warren and by a very large margin.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2011, 04:59:03 PM »

I think Brown will make it
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2011, 05:21:26 PM »

Elizabeth Warren and by a very large margin.

bigger than Kerry1996?
Logged
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2011, 07:03:29 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2011, 11:46:58 PM by Kevin »

Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

Also Warren is vastly overrated by the Dem hacks on here.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2011, 07:07:57 PM »

Brown if current trend hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

Also Warren is vastly overrated by the Dem hacks on here.

Yep, she's (O-MA).
Logged
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,088


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2011, 07:28:18 PM »

Elizabeth Warren.
Logged
Username MechaRFK
RFK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,270
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2011, 07:41:11 PM »

The ghost of Ted Kennedy.


In the real world, I hope Warren.
Logged
nkpatel1279
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2011, 12:50:28 AM »

Warren-D
In MA, Democratic voter turnout in Presidential election years are high. Warren can get the same percent of the vote as Coakley among Republicans and Independents but will do better among Democrats than Coakley.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2011, 05:05:39 AM »

Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2011, 08:37:23 AM »

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2011, 10:41:26 AM »

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.

Really? That's suprising because I still heard turnout argument.

Anyway, I'm not from Massachusetts like you, so my position here is weaker, but Chafee was less of party and Bush loyalist than Brown seems to be GOP loyalist right now.

Also, 2010 was, um, a special year, when a lot of people choose to vote for Brown in order to show their yellow card to Obama. Also, Coakley was really pathetic candidate.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,935
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2011, 11:05:55 AM »

Elizabeth Warren, no doubt.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2011, 11:14:31 AM »


I'll be risky and go on record: yes.
Logged
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2011, 11:51:05 AM »
« Edited: December 01, 2011, 11:59:30 AM by Kevin »

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.

Really? That's suprising because I still heard turnout argument.

Anyway, I'm not from Massachusetts like you, so my position here is weaker, but Chafee was less of party and Bush loyalist than Brown seems to be GOP loyalist right now.

Also, 2010 was, um, a special year, when a lot of people choose to vote for Brown in order to show their yellow card to Obama. Also, Coakley was really pathetic candidate.

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Now Massachusetts like Rhode Island is an overwhelmingly Democratic state overall, and no doubt will MA will go to Obama. However 2012 is looking like anything but a Democratic year, especially in the Senate.  
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2011, 02:33:45 PM »

Brown if current trend's hold. He's still relatively well liked by the people of Mass and hasn't done much to piss the electorate off.

That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.

Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009

You call having to close a thirty point defecit in just a few weeks a comfortable situation?

Yes, because he is a Republican who got elected to the United States Senate from freaking Massachusetts.

Now Massachusetts like Rhode Island is an overwhelmingly Democratic state overall, and no doubt will MA will go to Obama. However 2012 is looking like anything but a Democratic year, especially in the Senate.  

And it's too early to say anything for sure.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2011, 02:36:15 PM »

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2011, 02:47:15 PM »

Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.

It's not a "trap," it's a solid point. It was high turnout for a special election--but that's a caveat. You know that turnout in 2012 will be much higher than it was in the 2010 general or special election. Brown would have won anyway, but Dem performance in cities like Lowell and Lawrence collapsed because people stayed home who only come out for Presidential elections.

Scott Brown got 1,168,107 votes and won in 2010.
John McCain got only 60,000 votes fewer in 2008 and was absolutely trounced.

How many more people are going to vote for Brown who didn't vote for him in January 2010? Some, possibly... and maybe he won't lose too many who voted for him then because of his opponent or conditions at the time... but enough to get him to 50%? Tough. Can happen, but tough.
Logged
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2011, 05:41:36 PM »

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.

True to both of your points,

Given the state he's in and that it's early on Brown's clearly not safe. However, given the early indicators I do think the odds's are in his favour.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2011, 05:49:59 PM »

How Chafee voted didn't matter in 2006 since he had an R next to his name in a D year in an overwhelmingly D state. Besides Chafee wasn't as popular as Democrats on here are making him out to be. According to Rasmussen his approvals were only like 53%-45%

Such approvals are usually good news for incumbent Senator running for reelection.

Anyway, under good circumstances "R" next to Brown's name in November may play a factor too. We just don't know how would the situation look in November 2012 and assuming anything is at best premature.

By the way, unless many Democrats here, I'm not saying Brown is definitively going to lose, but he's not all-odds-safe either.

True to both of your points,

Given the state he's in and that it's early on Brown's clearly not safe. However, given the early indicators I do think the odds's are in his favour.

If there is more polling to back up what came out today, I don't know how you could say he is in a better position than Ben Nelson at the moment...
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2011, 07:49:44 PM »

YouGov is garbage according to Silver- they make Ras look like Gallup. I'd wait for a PPP or UMass poll myself.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2011, 07:58:45 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2011, 08:04:00 PM by Nathan »

The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll so I'm not sure what you mean by 'waiting for a UMass poll'.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2011, 08:05:00 PM »

The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.

It was done in coordination with YouGov, so forgive me for being doubtful. Brown would have needed an oops moment to drop 8 points in a month, and as Sabato said today both candidates are running largely flawless campaigns.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2011, 08:08:37 PM »

The YouGov poll was also a UMass poll.

I'd say that this race is somewhere between Tilt and Lean D right now, all things considered, but who knows what might change.

It was done in coordination with YouGov, so forgive me for being doubtful. Brown would have needed an oops moment to drop 8 points in a month, and as Sabato said today both candidates are running largely flawless campaigns.

It might just have to do with the relative number of undecideds this far out. Plus, it's Massachusetts. If both candidates run flawless campaigns then all else being equal things tend to break for the Democrat. Brown's incumbency advantage is why I'm saying this is really only Tilt D or so at this stage. We're a long way off yet.

I'm not sure my university even does polls out of coordination with other groups anyway.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 14 queries.