That doesn't guarantee anything. Lincoln Chafee was a very popular Senator in Rhode Island, but still lost due to a simple thing called party identity.
That was also during a heavily Democratic year in which Chafee was saddled with an incredibly unpopular incumbent president.
Brown had a very comfortable situation in 2009: a special election scheduled in a middle of nowhere of American electoral calendar. 2012 will not only be a regular year, but also a presidential election one. Democratic turnout in Massachusetts will be high and this is a clear advantage for a Democratic candidate.
Please do not fall into the trap of assuming the special election in which Brown was elected was a low turnout one. Quite the opposite. The same number of people turned out in 2010 Senate special -- about 2,200,000 -- as did the 2010 general election -- again, about 2,200,000.
Poll
