who will win - MA

[colincb]

Warren will win fairly easily.  Turnout in the special election was approximately 800,000 votes less than 2008. According to Wikipedia, "... The drop in turnout was smallest (around 25%) in areas that supported Obama in the 2008 election by less than 60%. Turnout fell 30% among towns that supported Obama by over 60%. In Boston, which supported Obama by almost 79% in 2008, the decrease in 2010 voter turnout was even more pronounced, at about 35%. ..."

As for GOP presidential drag factors, Romney was down 24% in an early October 2011 UMass poll and Perry was down 37%.  Give all the undecideds to the GOP candidate and that comes down to a 17% margin vs Romney and a 25% margin vs Perry.  My guess is that Gingrich would do even worse than Perry who was reportedly the only guy that local legend Tip O'Nelil said he hated.

Brown is not as popular as he was and the GOP brand is otherwise toxic.