Unemployment 8.6%

[opebo]

In Europe (Italy is the poster child for this) the real number of folks with a job is a fair bit bigger than the "official" one - As US policies converge with those of Europe, it will be interesting to see if the underground economy grows to also match European levels.

Vorlon, if you think US policy is converging with Europe, you're completely deluded.  European policy is converging with American policy - neoliberalism.

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

jmfcst, negative wage growth is the goal of your party (the GOP), and of Capital, and neoliberal economists.  You should be pleased.

[Penelope]

Any gov't number is nonsense.  What's the real unemployment right (i.e. that includes those that are structurally unemployed, have given up looking or who don't work 40 hrs per week?)

It's probably 20-25%.  Disgusting.

Let's keep outsourcing jobs though to save $$$.

[Politico]

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession.  And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama.  In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt.  So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?

This. Politicians can delude themselves into thinking the public is completely stupid, but they are not when it comes to market activities. Most people do not suffer from monetary illusions.

[Link]

I can't wait to hear the spin...

You won't have long to wait.  Here comes the blue avatar set...

Any gov't number is nonsense.

Anyway, it's beyond obvious the number fell because people just stopped being counted...

Those "real" unemployment rates are just circlejerk lies.

The bad news is that 315,000 folks just simply gave up looking, so the drop is a statistical quirk not a real reflection of actual gains.

Is this country doomed permanently? I fear so.

And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama.

As long as there is a black Democrat in the White House the Republican spin will be prompt and predictable.... guaranteed.

[courts]

I can't wait to hear the spin...

You won't have long to wait.  Here comes the blue avatar set...

[snip]

Those "real" unemployment rates are just circlejerk lies.

Uh, reading comprehension...

But yes, obviously anyone criticizing this must be a Republican.

[nhmagic]

Seasonal, temporary, full time employment, not permanent full time employment.  And I know because I work in an unemployment office for the state.  The burst is amazing, but also disheartening.  The unemployment rate always drops near the holidays as retailers need extra hands for the extra business - ie. UPS and its tons of seasonal driver jobs, etc.  Feb's unemployment rate will be back up in the 9%ish range. 

Also, every time these numbers are published, they are always revised back up.  So with the revision its probably 8.8%.

[Link]

The unemployment rate always drops near the holidays as retailers need extra hands for the extra business...

You can adjust it yourself.  Just see what the number was last year at the same time.  Was it higher or lower?  Hint... It was higher last year.

Gallup unadjusted numbers...



Just look back on the graph to Nov-Dec '10 and you will see we are lower than the same time last year whether it's seasonally adjusted or not.

Frankly it's one number that will be revised up or down... the way it always is.  It's amazing the amount of right wing hand wringing that goes on when one positive looking economic number comes out.  I'm sensing there are a lot of people that were hoping the US economy would stay in the tank so their party could take over the White House.  I find their reaction disgusting, but with some reflection not surprising.  At this stage in the game we know who we are dealing with.  Honeslty.  One potentially positive econ number and a thread full of wailing and gnashing of right wing teeth is spawned.  But with no evidence what so ever here is their reaction to the possibility of the reverse...

SimCity?  is that the game where you can win reelection in the middle of a double dip recession?  I think I'll buy it for Obama for Christmas.

If this is the best "dirt" you've got I'm not liking your chances in '12.

well, give us a break, what else do we have to attack him on with his economic and foreign policy going so well?  I mean, if he had backed revolutions by crazy groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, and ran up was much debt in 4 years and W did in 8, and presided over net job losses in the millions and a double dip recession starting at a level of 9.1% UE and a $1.3T deficit...then we would have something else to hold him to.  As it is, we have nothing, and we're grasping at straws, so cut us a little slack.

no reply to my point, eh?

it is no secret the Dems are going to reneg on the debt deal reach in July (when the Dems still had hope in the economy) in order to force a shutdown and attempt to blame the double dip on the GOP.

but it wont work

he *may* be able to keep his approval around 40% for the next couple of months...but if we double dip: by the end of Jan 2012, it will be below 40%....and Summer 2011, it will be around 35%...but Nov 2012 it will be in the 30% range and he'll lose by 10-15 points to someone like Romney.

yo, Harry from NV is the one who has this week been threatening shutdowns...during the debt talks, the Dems avoided a shutdown because they didnt want the economy to go into recession....but now that it is pretty clear we're going to double dip, the Dems know they're screwed and will attempt a shutdown in order to blame the GOP.  but the Speaker knows this

Because that 40% percent approval is sure to hold up another 14 months while Ohio and the rest of America are basking in the glow of the economic genius of Double Dip Obama...and America will surely vote in Nov '12 to Double Down on Hope and Change....right?!

...not...gonna...happen

Left vows primary challenge to Double Dip Obama

but having spent 4 years and $5 Trillion in new debt and only bringing the UE down from 10.5% to 9% doesnt cut it for the American people, and Obama will lose by more than 10 points if the UE rate continues to hover at 9% for the next 14 months, because under that situation Obama's approval rating will be under 30%....if we double dip, he'll lose by more than 15 points and his approval rating will be under 25%

40% percent approval is NOT sustainable with prolonged stagnation of the UE at around 9% over the next 14 months

The righties have been praying for an economic deterioration for months non stop.  One semi positive econ number comes out and they attack Dems for "spin" that hasn't even happened.  The Republicans on this forum really make me sick.  This isn't even a discussion.  All the comments I quoted are from just one Republican poster.  The idea that people like this are in engaged in anything other than pure partisan hackery is absurd.

Everybody just calm down.  It's one number.  You cannot draw a trend with one data point.  We will have to see how things go in the next few months and wait for the inevitable revisions.  In the mean time quit praying for a recession and making off the wall pronouncements.

[Ban my account ffs!]

What I continue to enjoy is the fact that Texas reached their highest unemployment rate in September of 2011 and fell only 0.1% in October.  I thought Texas was supposed to be creating all sorts of jobs?  Why is their unemployment rate higher now than it was during the spring of '09?

In contrast, Minnesota's unemployment rate peaked at 8.5% (unadjusted) in May of 2009 and has fallen to 6.4% in October.  Texas was at 7.5% in May of 2009 and is at 8.4% as of October.

I guess I can't blame Jmfcst for being so pessimistic.  Things really aren't as good in Texas as they'd like you to think.  Must be all those liberals down there ruining the economy.  Or perhaps all the brown people... surely some liberal boogeyman is to blame!

[Ban my account ffs!]

I should point out that part of the reason Texas' rate has gone up is because the labor force has grown at a fast pace.  People have been moving there in high numbers seeking jobs.

The labor force growth rate has slowed sharply in the past year, however...

It's also a reason why states like Washington have stubbornly high rates of unemployment... they are attracting a lot of people from worse off areas of the nation.

That said, the labor force has grown in MN as well and we're one of only a couple states to have regained all the jobs it lost in the recession and are now posting record employment numbers... beating the previous high seen in mid 2006 here.

[Eraserhead]

Good news for Obama. There really isn't much that needs to said about it beyond that.

[Beet]

I might as well post this now, as it'll likely be among the last bit of economic good news until after 2012, given the likely armageddon coming out of Europe:

-------

"Employers said they took on 120,000 workers in November, bringing job gains over the past four months to 534,000, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. A separate survey of households showed 278,000 more people were employed last month, pushing the increase during the same period to 1.28 million.

At turning points in the economy, the latter may prove more accurate because it’s more likely to pick up hiring at small companies and new firms that may be under the government’s radar. In another sign of recovery, the payroll figures the last three reports have been revised up by a combined 91,000 on average for the prior two months.

“Maybe we are doing a little better than the payroll survey suggests,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in a research note. “The payroll survey keeps getting revised up and up and up,” he said, and “the household survey is more likely to catch start-ups.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-households-find-work-in-sign-job-market-better-than-payrolls-suggest.html

[Eraserhead]

I might as well post this now, as it'll likely be among the last bit of economic good news until after 2012, given the likely armageddon coming out of Europe:

-------

"Employers said they took on 120,000 workers in November, bringing job gains over the past four months to 534,000, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. A separate survey of households showed 278,000 more people were employed last month, pushing the increase during the same period to 1.28 million.

At turning points in the economy, the latter may prove more accurate because it’s more likely to pick up hiring at small companies and new firms that may be under the government’s radar. In another sign of recovery, the payroll figures the last three reports have been revised up by a combined 91,000 on average for the prior two months.

“Maybe we are doing a little better than the payroll survey suggests,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in a research note. “The payroll survey keeps getting revised up and up and up,” he said, and “the household survey is more likely to catch start-ups.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-households-find-work-in-sign-job-market-better-than-payrolls-suggest.html

Abandon ship!

[dead0man]

I've been defensively looking for work for the past couple of days and from that I've gathered, if you have a CDL or work in the medical field, you ain't hurting for work.  Also lots of entry level work, but that's to be expected I guess.  Everybody else is screwed.

[Badger]

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market.  They have all the power and all the chips.  They dictate everything.  They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours.  That's the new norm folks. 

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service. 

This is what it is folks.  Read that.  Very scary.

Ah, the GOP dream.

And I'm sure long term economic economic growth will be just fine with the average wage dropping to $2/hr.

[Badger]

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

Pure coincidence.

Isn't that what Reagan said too?

how would you know, you're 19 years old?!  And if someone has told you the Reagan recovery was fake, they you really are to be pittied.  The recovery during the Reagan and Clinton administrations was an absolute gold mine for anyone with markable skills.  Both were very real and broad based, though the IT bubble of 90's made follow through in the 00's tough.

Reagan actually had one of the worst rates of job growth of any post-war president. But he jmfsct's watching Fox have no clue of this...

[Badger]

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

The fact you actually seem to believe this SO confirms your HP status.

[Badger]

Actually, I'd read somewhere that these numbers were NOT seasonally adjusted, and thus merely subject to the holiday hiring frenzy. That seems HIGHLY unusual though for BLS statistics, IIRC. Disappointing if true. Anyone have further insight/info on this?

[bgwah]

I've been defensively looking for work for the past couple of days and from that I've gathered, if you have a CDL or work in the medical field, you ain't hurting for work.  Also lots of entry level work, but that's to be expected I guess.  Everybody else is screwed.

Not really...

[Wonkish1]

For the lack of a better place to put this on this forum:

I don't want to be held to this, but I think there is a pretty good chance we're looking at a D-Day in Europe practically right around Christmas. Looking at the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd or right after the markets wake up to reality in the few days after Christmas and extending out maybe a couple days after new years.

I was originally expecting something from the beginning of January to the end of March. But now I'm looking at one very $hitty Christmas holiday for many people in Europe.


I've never engaged in this level of timing before(I usually time to a 6 month or even 1 year period never this specific). and there a lot of variables at play here. But there is some catalysts coming up that this is the first time I'm going to venture a guess this specific.

[Link]

I can't wait to hear the spin.

Like I said dude, you won't have to wait long...

For the lack of a better place to put this on this forum:

I don't want to be held to this, but I think there is a pretty good chance we're looking at a D-Day in Europe practically right around Christmas. Looking at the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd or right after the markets wake up to reality in the few days after Christmas and extending out maybe a couple days after new years.

I was originally expecting something from the beginning of January to the end of March. But now I'm looking at one very $hitty Christmas holiday for many people in Europe.

I've never engaged in this level of timing before(I usually time to a 6 month or even 1 year period never this specific). and there a lot of variables at play here. But there is some catalysts coming up that this is the first time I'm going to venture a guess this specific.

[Jacobtm]

Interesting that Republicans are finally realizing all these unemployment numbers are fake as hell.

I think we're still about the same as Spain, with their 20% unemployment.

[Link]

Interesting that Republicans are finally realizing all these unemployment numbers are fake as hell.

I think we're still about the same as Spain, with their 20% unemployment.

Pretty incredible isn't it?  Those numbers have been phony for decades.  Now that Obama is in the White House they're jamming up the forums talking about how this number and that number shouldn't be believed.  After Bush's disastrous tax cuts they were looking for any tiny morsel of this phony data to declare their tax cut nonsense a success.

[Wonkish1]

I can't wait to hear the spin.

Like I said dude, you won't have to wait long...

For the lack of a better place to put this on this forum:

I don't want to be held to this, but I think there is a pretty good chance we're looking at a D-Day in Europe practically right around Christmas. Looking at the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd or right after the markets wake up to reality in the few days after Christmas and extending out maybe a couple days after new years.

I was originally expecting something from the beginning of January to the end of March. But now I'm looking at one very $hitty Christmas holiday for many people in Europe.

I've never engaged in this level of timing before(I usually time to a 6 month or even 1 year period never this specific). and there a lot of variables at play here. But there is some catalysts coming up that this is the first time I'm going to venture a guess this specific.

That's not spin. I posted the exact same thing on the Econ board. I'm just coming out with a cautious prediction here. I'm not commenting on the unemployment numbers.

[Badger]

So, again, seasonally adjiusted numbers or not?

Pretty crucial distinction, IMHO.....

[Verily]

I've been defensively looking for work for the past couple of days and from that I've gathered, if you have a CDL or work in the medical field, you ain't hurting for work.  Also lots of entry level work, but that's to be expected I guess.  Everybody else is screwed.

Not really...

I think he meant in the medical/health field (doctors, nurses, technicians), which is true. Obviously not true generally.