Any "sleeper" states that you think Romney could surprise in the general?

[sg0508]

Let's assume for a minute that he wins the nomination.  What typically blue state do you think he could somehow surprise and win, either do you favorable demographics or other factors?

I think New Hampshire is the obvious answer, but what others do you think? Or, have the Democrats basically put a lock on so many states, similar to the GOP from '68-'88 that no matter who the nominee, it won't matter?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Let's assume for a minute that he wins the nomination.  What typically blue state...

Romney as the nominee and winning a blue state?  That's one big assumption.  Might as well assume the moon is made of blue cheese.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Let's assume for a minute that he wins the nomination.  What typically blue state do you think he could somehow surprise and win, either do you favorable demographics or other factors?

I think New Hampshire is the obvious answer, but what others do you think? Or, have the Democrats basically put a lock on so many states, similar to the GOP from '68-'88 that no matter who the nominee, it won't matter?

NH isn't really a sleeper, considering that Romney basically lives there, has been campaigning there constantly, and it isn't *really* that blue of a state. The only one I can really think of is Wisconsin, which bolted hard right in 2010 after a large Obama victory in 2008.

[anvi]

There are a few "blue states" (I count these presently as states that have voted for the Democratic nominee at least four times in the last five elections) that are a bit soft right now, I think the most prominent ones, in order of most to least weak for the Democrats, are New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  Romney polls better in all these states in prospective matchups against Obama than his GOP rivals so far, but we'll see what happens if Gingrich can maintain his current position.  Ultimately, with Romney as the nominee, I think the Democrats are in real danger of losing New Hampshire, but I don't think Wisconsin or Pennsylvania will flip yet.  If Romney is not the nominee, I think Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be pretty safe for Obama and New Hampshire will be a tossup.  

[sg0508]

The thing about Wisconsin, is that the GOP always polls better there than the final results show.  Bush was actually up double digits against Kerry in 2004 in Oct and lost the state.  The 2010 races weren't supposed to be as tight as they ended up.  You also have to think the blue collars up there won't think much of Romney's Wall St connections.

[cavalcade]

NH.  PA.

MI and CT are also all over the place and could use a recent credible poll.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Michigan would be the state with the biggest chance of that happening I think.

[King]

I am 100 percent confident Romney would win all 50 states if he won the nomination. There's no plausible way to prove my theory, however. We'll just have to assume I was right.

[Meeker]

I don't really think New Hampshire is a blue state. It's voted for whoever won the Presidential election overall every time except once in the past eight elections and always swings wildly one way or the other during wave elections.

[NHI]

MI, WI, PA

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

MI, WI, and PA are already swing states, and Michigan is one of his home states. Romney isn't a strong candidate with the blue collar (and Walker and Kasich haven't helped Midwest Republicans); a victory in Pennsylvania, for instance, would come from taking the Philly suburbs. If Romney focuses on appealing to those wealthy suburbanites, then Connecticut and New Jersey are in the cards in a particularly bad year for the Democrats. If it's even worse, Romney will focus less on Ohio and Florida and more on California and New York.

[tmthforu94]

I'd consider a blue state as one that voted for Gore and never voted for GWB.

I think Romney would certainly bring Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania into play. Democrats may also have to spend some resources to keep Minnesota.

[Averroës Nix]

If Romney focuses on appealing to those wealthy suburbanites, then Connecticut and New Jersey are in the cards in a particularly bad year for the Democrats. If it's even worse, Romney will focus less on Ohio and Florida and more on California and New York.

I'd be cautious about overrating this kind of effect, but it will be interesting to see if nominating a candidate like Romney, who is very different in some ways from any recent Republican nominee, has any effect on what has become a relatively fixed electoral map.