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Author Topic: France, alternate elections - requests  (Read 14289 times)
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« on: December 03, 2011, 09:42:29 am »

Channeling Teddy's similar idea for Canada, I'll do the same for France (or perhaps any other country I know something about and which you're dying for). I can provide:

-maps based on UNS for all presidential elections since 1965, legislative elections since 1997 and european elections since 1979
-maps of hypothetical fictional presidential matchups, any year, any round, any candidates (within reason, no Donald Duck vs. Adolf Hitler stuff)
-maps of hypothetical legislative elections for most years based on a fixed scenario
-maps of hypothetical, fictional referendums on any reasonable issue, any year

Maps will be made at a departmental level save for legislative elections.
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2011, 11:14:35 am »

What a great idea, there should be plenty of nice stuff to work out ! I'd really like to see some alternate legislative results, playing with party numbers to see what happens in terms of seat counts (tied vote nationwide, slightly better or worse results for each party, etc...). You could also calculate the results using different voting systems, like FPP or different kinds of PR. I don't have one precise idea, but I'd be glad to see any of your ideas.
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2011, 11:58:49 am »

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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2011, 05:13:43 pm »


Oh, and maybe something where De Gaulle's dies while fleeing during the May 1968 crisis and Gaston Monnerville becomes president.
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2011, 10:47:02 pm »

France with current Canadian parties.
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2011, 10:22:02 am »

I said hypothetical matchups, chicos.
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2011, 11:33:01 am »

I said hypothetical matchups, chicos.

Channeling Teddy's similar idea for Canada, I'll do the same for France (or perhaps any other country I know something about and which you're dying for). I can provide:

-maps based on UNS for all presidential elections since 1965, legislative elections since 1997 and european elections since 1979
-maps of hypothetical fictional presidential matchups, any year, any round, any candidates (within reason, no Donald Duck vs. Adolf Hitler stuff)
-maps of hypothetical legislative elections for most years based on a fixed scenario
-maps of hypothetical, fictional referendums on any reasonable issue, any year

Maps will be made at a departmental level save for legislative elections.

Not only. I personally like UNS scenarioes. Wink
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2011, 03:54:17 pm »

Pompidou v. Duclos, 1969 (second round)
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« Reply #8 on: December 07, 2011, 11:02:21 pm »

Pompidou v. Duclos, 1969 (second round)

Seconded.

Also: Balladur vs. Jospin (1995)
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« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2011, 12:53:37 pm »

Balladur v. Jospin, Round 2, 1995.
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« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2011, 09:13:14 am »

Great idea! I'd like to see the map of a referendum on gay mariage, nowadays, with, let's see, about 57% in favor of it.
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« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2011, 09:22:23 am »

I'd really like to see some UNS legislative results, say 1981 with PV tied tied between left (PS-PCF-MRG-DVG) and right (RPR-UDF-DVD), or 1993 with a more "normal" results, or a left-wing win in 2002.
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« Reply #12 on: December 13, 2011, 10:27:45 am »

Here's 1995 Balladur-Jospin



Assuming an OTL 53-47 runoff, assuming Chirac voters vote as OTL Balladur voters did, assuming a slightly less favourable transfer of Le Pen votes.

Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Indre, Puy-de-Dome, Essonne could go either way really.

1969 Pompidou-Duclos



Duclos would be lucky to get 35% or so. I'm really assuming a realistic best-case scenario for him, with all Rocard+Krivine votes, most of Defferre and 2-3% extra from either others or abstention. I'd love to see some of the results in places like the Saint-Flour plateau, Leon, rural Alsace and so forth!

Gay marriage a bit harder than planned, but coming to it.
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« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2011, 10:30:12 am »

Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).
« Last Edit: December 13, 2011, 10:32:24 am by Minister of Free Time Hashemite »Logged



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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2011, 11:09:38 am »

Front National with their best election ever somehow, 20%
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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2011, 11:40:50 am »

Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

Thanks, that's really interesting! I tried to make one related to an old thread but it was really difficult to figure out...

I just wonder why do you think the rather right-wing Charentes-Maritimes would vote more in favor of same-sex marriage than the more urban and left-wing Vienne? I also have a hard time understanding why Savoie would be that socially liberal (more than 60% in favor of gay marriage here, really?) and on the other hand I'm a little skeptical about the "no" vote in Aveyron and Cantal, but that's not a very educated guess Wink .

What do you think a death penalty referendum map would look like? I'm not asking you another map, but I really don't know if we would find the same rural vs. urban divide in this case...
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2011, 12:03:27 pm »

Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

Thanks, that's really interesting! I tried to make one related to an old thread but it was really difficult to figure out...

I just wonder why do you think the rather right-wing Charentes-Maritimes would vote more in favor of same-sex marriage than the more urban and left-wing Vienne? I also have a hard time understanding why Savoie would be that socially liberal (more than 60% in favor of gay marriage here, really?) and on the other hand I'm a little skeptical about the "no" vote in Aveyron and Cantal, but that's not a very educated guess Wink .

What do you think a death penalty referendum map would look like? I'm not asking you another map, but I really don't know if we would find the same rural vs. urban divide in this case...

Yeah, maybe Vienne should be above 60%, but Charentes-Maritimes is above 60% because of La Rochelle. I've always felt Savoie to be way more socially left-wing than it is economically, but I might be wrong on the intensity of support. I don't really know how bourgeois snobs would react to gay marriage: would it be "meh, who cares" or "cool" or "Sainte mere de Dieu! Teh gays!"
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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2011, 12:23:11 pm »

Great maps ! Smiley Wouldn't Alsace go against gay marriage (or very moderayely in favor) ?
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« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2011, 12:49:44 pm »

Great maps ! Smiley Wouldn't Alsace go against gay marriage (or very moderayely in favor) ?

Strasbourg is pretty socially liberal, but perhaps 60% in the Bas-Rhin is a bit too much yeah.
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« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2011, 01:16:06 pm »

France with Canadian parties

2011 election, modeled on Canada outside Quebec. Excludes overseas for obvious reasons.

Assumptions:
I'm carrying over most Canadian voting patterns except the Catholic-Liberal link which makes no logical sense in France (I'm replacing it with a rough Protestant/Jew/Muslim/atheist-Liberal/NDP link)
This includes an immigrant-Liberal pattern, which might or might not be logical in France, but I'm just carrying it over from Canada
This assumes a very weak Communist history in France as in Canada
Steve Harpo is less of a maniacal right-wing nut to be elected



Other map-based comments:
Corse could go a whole lot of different ways, I assume it's something like Newfoundland in its genepool tribal Liberal voting
The old Radical SW would probably be the rock-solid Liberal core (small property, individual farming and all that)

Next up: same thing, based on 2000
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« Reply #20 on: December 13, 2011, 01:27:49 pm »

France with Canadian parties

2011 election, modeled on Canada outside Quebec. Excludes overseas for obvious reasons.

Assumptions:
I'm carrying over most Canadian voting patterns except the Catholic-Liberal link which makes no logical sense in France (I'm replacing it with a rough Protestant/Jew/Muslim/atheist-Liberal/NDP link)
This includes an immigrant-Liberal pattern, which might or might not be logical in France, but I'm just carrying it over from Canada
This assumes a very weak Communist history in France as in Canada
Steve Harpo is less of a maniacal right-wing nut to be elected



Other map-based comments:
Corse could go a whole lot of different ways, I assume it's something like Newfoundland in its genepool tribal Liberal voting
The old Radical SW would probably be the rock-solid Liberal core (small property, individual farming and all that)

Next up: same thing, based on 2000

That's a pretty strange map... Can you tell us more about the details ? I guess working class areas (Nord, Haute-Normandie, Lorraine) are strong NDP areas, so are rural areas of progressive tradition (Limousin et al), but what's up with Liberal strength in the Southwest ? Overall, they should be concentrated in cities (indeed there are a few red spots).

Great map anyways. Some other alternate-country scenari should be fun (UK 2010, Germany 2005, Spain 2008, Ireland 2011, Switzerland 2011, Denmark 2011... my favorite should probably be Italy 1976 Wink)
« Last Edit: December 13, 2011, 01:31:58 pm by Meno male che Silvio non c'č piů ! »Logged


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« Reply #21 on: December 13, 2011, 11:36:39 pm »

I think the Liberals resemble the old Radicals more than any other French party; in that sense, one can imagine a party based on rural elites.
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« Reply #22 on: December 14, 2011, 09:47:02 am »

That's a pretty strange map... Can you tell us more about the details ? I guess working class areas (Nord, Haute-Normandie, Lorraine) are strong NDP areas, so are rural areas of progressive tradition (Limousin et al), but what's up with Liberal strength in the Southwest ? Overall, they should be concentrated in cities (indeed there are a few red spots).

Great map anyways. Some other alternate-country scenari should be fun (UK 2010, Germany 2005, Spain 2008, Ireland 2011, Switzerland 2011, Denmark 2011... my favorite should probably be Italy 1976 Wink)

As I touched on, I imagine the Radical SW to be a Liberal base. My theory is founded on a tradition of individual land-ownership, historical protest at a political elite which would probably be Tory, anti-clericalism. Champagne would probably have been Liberal for similar reasons up until the 1950s or something. Landes might be wrong though, it's a place of heavy sharecropping and might be more NDP instead.
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« Reply #23 on: December 14, 2011, 10:09:38 am »

Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.

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« Reply #24 on: December 14, 2011, 10:11:19 am »

Here's Canada 2000 with a Liberal majority which might be a tad too big

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