France, alternate elections - requests

[big bad fab]

Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

Thanks, that's really interesting! I tried to make one related to an old thread but it was really difficult to figure out...

I just wonder why do you think the rather right-wing Charentes-Maritimes would vote more in favor of same-sex marriage than the more urban and left-wing Vienne? I also have a hard time understanding why Savoie would be that socially liberal (more than 60% in favor of gay marriage here, really?) and on the other hand I'm a little skeptical about the "no" vote in Aveyron and Cantal, but that's not a very educated guess .

What do you think a death penalty referendum map would look like? I'm not asking you another map, but I really don't know if we would find the same rural vs. urban divide in this case...

Yeah, maybe Vienne should be above 60%, but Charentes-Maritimes is above 60% because of La Rochelle. I've always felt Savoie to be way more socially left-wing than it is economically, but I might be wrong on the intensity of support. I don't really know how bourgeois snobs would react to gay marriage: would it be "meh, who cares" or "cool" or "Sainte mere de Dieu! Teh gays!"

Mmmm, maybe Aube, Manche and even Moselle and Alpes-Maritimes would be "no" areas. Jura could be contested too.
Aveyron may be just in favour of "yes". Aisne too.
Haute-Savoie would be more contested.

As for Corsica, honestly, it's very difficult, but there would be a great resistance to gay marriage, I think, whatever political leanings...

[big bad fab]

Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.

What a horrendous map... Not very surprising, though. I'd like to see a 3-way tie between parliamentary left, parliamentary right and FN, based on an election like 2002, 1997 legislative or 1995, whatever you prefer.

I found it interesting that Longwy would have voted Chirac over Le Pen.

I'll see what I can do a UNS based on 2002 or 1997. I might actually take the Le Pen wins to a timeline where the FN then wins the legislative elections

Wobnderful and amazing map, Hash ! Thanks a lot !

Le Pen's weakness in Val-de-Marne is striking.
And Garonne valley is still fascinating.

[big bad fab]

I've just found this fantastic thread and, of course, I have some ideas, GREAT ones, of course

Chaban-Delmas vs Mitterrand 1974 (with a razor-thin margin, like in RL)

Barre vs Mitterrand 1988 (with a national result a bit more balanced than in reality, whatever the final winner)

Giscard d'Estaing vs Rocard 1981 (with a national result similar to the real one)

Pompidou vs Mendès-France 1969 (Pompidou small winner, for example)

Bayrou vs Royal 2007 (not so easy...) (let's say with Bayrou winning as great as Sarkozy)

Sarkozy vs Bayrou 2007 (same overall result)

[big bad fab]

And if you are really bored (), a 1st-round Delors in 1995 would be fine, as a 1st-round Mendès-France in 1965.

A Coluche in 1981 would be very challenging: some sort of Laguiller+Le Pen in terms of relative strength ?

[big bad fab]

My source has returned!

Here's Chaban-Mitterrand



I make most of these maps using a mix of personal common sense and then create a variable in the CDSP's mapping tool. In this case, I've applied a UNS in the first round to give Chaban 24.5% and Giscard 23%. I then tweaked things a bit assuming a strong Giscard transfer to Chaban and some 1% from Royer (a poor transfer) and added a final UNS to that to give 50.5% to Chaban. The final result is a pretty amusing half-assed return of the old Gaullist map losing the working-class north but saving the Occupied Zone along the Atlantic.

Savoie, Marne, Seine-et-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine, Haute-Saone, Belfort, Jura, Landes and Puy de Dome are pretty much on a knife's edge.

ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC !
REALLY !
It's already a very "modern" map for the time. I like it.

Is Lot-et-Garonne also on the edge ?

[big bad fab]

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Not all that different, surprisingly.

Indeed. It wasn't so good an idea from me

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A bit of a weird map... but I like the end result

Oh, I LOVE this and it's so accurate !
I would only have switched Tarn and Indre-et-Loire, maybe, while Creuse would have been very contested. Lot would have been the most fascinating department to investigate.
Thanks a lot for this wonderful map, Hash.
THIS alternate election would have been great, really !

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Not so sure that Royal wouldn't have done better in Languedoc, up to Ardèche, Drôme and Isère. And even in some leftist strongholds in Nord and Lorraine. But it's probably my "order" of a Bayrou winning with 53%: it was too much. Sorry.

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Maine-et-Loire, Aveyron, Allier are pretty much too close to call.

I like your Maine-et-Loire and your Allier. Aveyron, but also Lot-et-Garonne and Tarn-et-Garonne would have been possible for Bayrou. Even Morbihan, Indre or Isère...

Thanks again.