France, alternate elections - requests

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Channeling Teddy's similar idea for Canada, I'll do the same for France (or perhaps any other country I know something about and which you're dying for). I can provide:

-maps based on UNS for all presidential elections since 1965, legislative elections since 1997 and european elections since 1979
-maps of hypothetical fictional presidential matchups, any year, any round, any candidates (within reason, no Donald Duck vs. Adolf Hitler stuff)
-maps of hypothetical legislative elections for most years based on a fixed scenario
-maps of hypothetical, fictional referendums on any reasonable issue, any year

Maps will be made at a departmental level save for legislative elections.

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I said hypothetical matchups, chicos.

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Here's 1995 Balladur-Jospin



Assuming an OTL 53-47 runoff, assuming Chirac voters vote as OTL Balladur voters did, assuming a slightly less favourable transfer of Le Pen votes.

Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Indre, Puy-de-Dome, Essonne could go either way really.

1969 Pompidou-Duclos



Duclos would be lucky to get 35% or so. I'm really assuming a realistic best-case scenario for him, with all Rocard+Krivine votes, most of Defferre and 2-3% extra from either others or abstention. I'd love to see some of the results in places like the Saint-Flour plateau, Leon, rural Alsace and so forth!

Gay marriage a bit harder than planned, but coming to it.

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Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

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Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

Thanks, that's really interesting! I tried to make one related to an old thread but it was really difficult to figure out...

I just wonder why do you think the rather right-wing Charentes-Maritimes would vote more in favor of same-sex marriage than the more urban and left-wing Vienne? I also have a hard time understanding why Savoie would be that socially liberal (more than 60% in favor of gay marriage here, really?) and on the other hand I'm a little skeptical about the "no" vote in Aveyron and Cantal, but that's not a very educated guess .

What do you think a death penalty referendum map would look like? I'm not asking you another map, but I really don't know if we would find the same rural vs. urban divide in this case...

Yeah, maybe Vienne should be above 60%, but Charentes-Maritimes is above 60% because of La Rochelle. I've always felt Savoie to be way more socially left-wing than it is economically, but I might be wrong on the intensity of support. I don't really know how bourgeois snobs would react to gay marriage: would it be "meh, who cares" or "cool" or "Sainte mere de Dieu! Teh gays!"

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Great maps ! Wouldn't Alsace go against gay marriage (or very moderayely in favor) ?

Strasbourg is pretty socially liberal, but perhaps 60% in the Bas-Rhin is a bit too much yeah.

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France with Canadian parties

2011 election, modeled on Canada outside Quebec. Excludes overseas for obvious reasons.

Assumptions:
I'm carrying over most Canadian voting patterns except the Catholic-Liberal link which makes no logical sense in France (I'm replacing it with a rough Protestant/Jew/Muslim/atheist-Liberal/NDP link)
This includes an immigrant-Liberal pattern, which might or might not be logical in France, but I'm just carrying it over from Canada
This assumes a very weak Communist history in France as in Canada
Steve Harpo is less of a maniacal right-wing nut to be elected



Other map-based comments:
Corse could go a whole lot of different ways, I assume it's something like Newfoundland in its genepool tribal Liberal voting
The old Radical SW would probably be the rock-solid Liberal core (small property, individual farming and all that)

Next up: same thing, based on 2000

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That's a pretty strange map... Can you tell us more about the details ? I guess working class areas (Nord, Haute-Normandie, Lorraine) are strong NDP areas, so are rural areas of progressive tradition (Limousin et al), but what's up with Liberal strength in the Southwest ? Overall, they should be concentrated in cities (indeed there are a few red spots).

Great map anyways. Some other alternate-country scenari should be fun (UK 2010, Germany 2005, Spain 2008, Ireland 2011, Switzerland 2011, Denmark 2011... my favorite should probably be Italy 1976 )

As I touched on, I imagine the Radical SW to be a Liberal base. My theory is founded on a tradition of individual land-ownership, historical protest at a political elite which would probably be Tory, anti-clericalism. Champagne would probably have been Liberal for similar reasons up until the 1950s or something. Landes might be wrong though, it's a place of heavy sharecropping and might be more NDP instead.

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Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.

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Here's Canada 2000 with a Liberal majority which might be a tad too big

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Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.

What a horrendous map... Not very surprising, though. I'd like to see a 3-way tie between parliamentary left, parliamentary right and FN, based on an election like 2002, 1997 legislative or 1995, whatever you prefer.

I found it interesting that Longwy would have voted Chirac over Le Pen.

I'll see what I can do a UNS based on 2002 or 1997. I might actually take the Le Pen wins to a timeline where the FN then wins the legislative elections

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It's interesting how badly Le Pen did throughout all of Paris. I would have thought that he could have done relatively well in areas with a lot of immigrants.

The whites who live in parts of Paris with the most non-whites often tend to be more well-off than we think or gentrified bobos. That being said, the FN in 2002 still generally polled well in those places.

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Wait, are you using any math here, or just coloring in random places?

As I said, that map was based on UNS.

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My source has returned!

Here's Chaban-Mitterrand



I make most of these maps using a mix of personal common sense and then create a variable in the CDSP's mapping tool. In this case, I've applied a UNS in the first round to give Chaban 24.5% and Giscard 23%. I then tweaked things a bit assuming a strong Giscard transfer to Chaban and some 1% from Royer (a poor transfer) and added a final UNS to that to give 50.5% to Chaban. The final result is a pretty amusing half-assed return of the old Gaullist map losing the working-class north but saving the Occupied Zone along the Atlantic.

Savoie, Marne, Seine-et-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine, Haute-Saone, Belfort, Jura, Landes and Puy de Dome are pretty much on a knife's edge.

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Would you be able to do Kennedy versus Nixon? (1960)

This was a very interesting challenge, because of Kennedy's Catholicism and the fact that French politics in 1960 were basically structured along religious clerical-anticlerical lines. Kennedy being Catholic and not a CINO (well, yeah, we f**cked a lot, but the Kennedys were pretty Papist) at that would have done very well in France. Here's my idea of a Kennedy victory, perhaps at 51-52% or whereabouts:



Basically Kennedy does phenomenally well in Catholic working-class areas, holds non-Catholic working-class areas and the traditional "Democratic base" in the old otl Communist C. Alsace, Bretagne, Anjou, Maine are hard to determine: would they remain wary of the traditionally anticlerical Democrats or would they embrace the Catholic Kennedy?

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Sorry for not taking up remaining requests, but one day, I will. In the meantime, since it's primary flavour in the US, what if France could vote in the US primaries?

I'm assuming basically a national primary, a mix of France being the US - thus the French results reflecting otl results - and France being part of the US - thus a normal primary state. I'm assuming a fairly closed primary electorate composed of:
Reps: NC, UMP, most of the FN and MPF
Dem: MD, EELV, PRG, most of the PS, some Commies, few Trots

I make an effort to give at least one win to each major candidate which is in consideration.

To kick off with the 2012 GOP primaries:


Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann are not taken into account.

I can take requests for past primaries.

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Aren't you a big generous with Gingrich ? I know there was a thread about his being a typical French politician, but policy-wise I'd still have a hard time seeing him so strong among moderate "pompidolian" right-wingers in the center. In his stead, Santorum could fare a little better in catholic France.

Why are Meuse and Haute-Marne supporting Paul ?


Anyways, I'd like to see more of those primary maps.

In RL, Romney would win a landslide, but I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results. But, yes, I might have overestimated Gingrich there, but it isn't natural Romster land - its right-wingers are rural and not affluent moderate suburbanites.

A part of the FN electorate, specifically the hybrid type (type 2-3 hybrid) would be quite favourable to Paul. A conservative-libertarian half-populist candidate like Paul would be a good fit for 'isolated' rural areas in parts of the diagonale du vide where there's a strong anti-elitist and populist sentiment. It's perhaps not all that unlike Coos or Arostook Counties...

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I'll bore you a bit with the 2008 GOP primaries before publishing 2008 Dem primaries.



Rudy Giuliani is not taken into account.

A note on Corsica: I've just assumed they'd vote for the establishment candidate. It's too hard otherwise.

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Other GOP maps:

2000

Forbes, Bauer and Keyes are obviously not taken into account.

1976

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Here's an amusing one: 1968 D, assuming a Gene vs. Bobby contest.



Being generous with McCarthy... RFK would win a landslide in a 'French primary'

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Fun stuff indeed. Wouldn't Ford sweep France, though ? He's far closer to the standard French rightie than Reagan.

Again, as I said, I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results.

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1980 D


1984 D


1992 D

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Fun stuff indeed. Wouldn't Ford sweep France, though ? He's far closer to the standard French rightie than Reagan.

Again, as I said, I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results.

Reagan seems to be winning this map, though...

Note the population of the places which Ford won.

No Jesse Jackson in 1984?

I've kind of wanted to simulate a straight Hart-Mondale race. He'll be on the 1988 map.

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It would be interesting to see what Jackson's electorate would be, though.  Non-whites + hard-left might be strange bedfellows in France (my impression, which might be wrong, is that among the redder working-class elements in France there's a good deal of anti-immigration and quasi-racist sentiment).

The working class has been flirting with xenophobia and the far-right for decade (and now it's starting to take it to the next step). However, that's not the same as saying the hard-left is anti-immigrant. More like the hard-left doesn't really represent the working class.

What do we mean by 'hard-left'? The PCF, the Trots, the left-wing of the PS? or the American hard-left which in France would be moderate PS lefties?

In terms of party platforms, all of them are pretty pro-immigrant nowadays, although for sure the PCF of the 1970s flirted with borderline xenophobia in some places. In terms of electorate, it is hard to quantify, but the PCF electorate certainly has xenophobic reflexes in some cases.

At any rate, the importance of ex-PCF voters voting FN is way overplayed. But I can only blame the useless piss stain journalists who have bought into the theory that the FN's voters are all ex-commies. But, yes, 1984's FN electorate was very much right-wing and way prior to the emergence of gaucho-lepenisme. I wrote a blog post on that.

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Here's 1972 D



McGovern realistically wouldn't do anywhere as well, but I've needed to be kind so that he wins the primaries. Muskie's support was hard to lay down, I've assumed Catholic WWC areas.

And Corsica is just wrong.