France, alternate elections - requests

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a great idea, there should be plenty of nice stuff to work out ! I'd really like to see some alternate legislative results, playing with party numbers to see what happens in terms of seat counts (tied vote nationwide, slightly better or worse results for each party, etc...). You could also calculate the results using different voting systems, like FPP or different kinds of PR. I don't have one precise idea, but I'd be glad to see any of your ideas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I said hypothetical matchups, chicos.

Channeling Teddy's similar idea for Canada, I'll do the same for France (or perhaps any other country I know something about and which you're dying for). I can provide:

-maps based on UNS for all presidential elections since 1965, legislative elections since 1997 and european elections since 1979
-maps of hypothetical fictional presidential matchups, any year, any round, any candidates (within reason, no Donald Duck vs. Adolf Hitler stuff)
-maps of hypothetical legislative elections for most years based on a fixed scenario
-maps of hypothetical, fictional referendums on any reasonable issue, any year

Maps will be made at a departmental level save for legislative elections.

Not only. I personally like UNS scenarioes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd really like to see some UNS legislative results, say 1981 with PV tied tied between left (PS-PCF-MRG-DVG) and right (RPR-UDF-DVD), or 1993 with a more "normal" results, or a left-wing win in 2002.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great maps ! Wouldn't Alsace go against gay marriage (or very moderayely in favor) ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

France with Canadian parties

2011 election, modeled on Canada outside Quebec. Excludes overseas for obvious reasons.

Assumptions:
I'm carrying over most Canadian voting patterns except the Catholic-Liberal link which makes no logical sense in France (I'm replacing it with a rough Protestant/Jew/Muslim/atheist-Liberal/NDP link)
This includes an immigrant-Liberal pattern, which might or might not be logical in France, but I'm just carrying it over from Canada
This assumes a very weak Communist history in France as in Canada
Steve Harpo is less of a maniacal right-wing nut to be elected



Other map-based comments:
Corse could go a whole lot of different ways, I assume it's something like Newfoundland in its genepool tribal Liberal voting
The old Radical SW would probably be the rock-solid Liberal core (small property, individual farming and all that)

Next up: same thing, based on 2000

That's a pretty strange map... Can you tell us more about the details ? I guess working class areas (Nord, Haute-Normandie, Lorraine) are strong NDP areas, so are rural areas of progressive tradition (Limousin et al), but what's up with Liberal strength in the Southwest ? Overall, they should be concentrated in cities (indeed there are a few red spots).

Great map anyways. Some other alternate-country scenari should be fun (UK 2010, Germany 2005, Spain 2008, Ireland 2011, Switzerland 2011, Denmark 2011... my favorite should probably be Italy 1976 )

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's a pretty strange map... Can you tell us more about the details ? I guess working class areas (Nord, Haute-Normandie, Lorraine) are strong NDP areas, so are rural areas of progressive tradition (Limousin et al), but what's up with Liberal strength in the Southwest ? Overall, they should be concentrated in cities (indeed there are a few red spots).

Great map anyways. Some other alternate-country scenari should be fun (UK 2010, Germany 2005, Spain 2008, Ireland 2011, Switzerland 2011, Denmark 2011... my favorite should probably be Italy 1976 )

As I touched on, I imagine the Radical SW to be a Liberal base. My theory is founded on a tradition of individual land-ownership, historical protest at a political elite which would probably be Tory, anti-clericalism. Champagne would probably have been Liberal for similar reasons up until the 1950s or something. Landes might be wrong though, it's a place of heavy sharecropping and might be more NDP instead.

I see, that's original but it makes sense.

Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.

What a horrendous map... Not very surprising, though. I'd like to see a 3-way tie between parliamentary left, parliamentary right and FN, based on an election like 2002, 1997 legislative or 1995, whatever you prefer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting maps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Aren't you a big generous with Gingrich ? I know there was a thread about his being a typical French politician, but policy-wise I'd still have a hard time seeing him so strong among moderate "pompidolian" right-wingers in the center. In his stead, Santorum could fare a little better in catholic France.

Why are Meuse and Haute-Marne supporting Paul ?


Anyways, I'd like to see more of those primary maps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Aren't you a big generous with Gingrich ? I know there was a thread about his being a typical French politician, but policy-wise I'd still have a hard time seeing him so strong among moderate "pompidolian" right-wingers in the center. In his stead, Santorum could fare a little better in catholic France.

Why are Meuse and Haute-Marne supporting Paul ?


Anyways, I'd like to see more of those primary maps.

In RL, Romney would win a landslide, but I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results. But, yes, I might have overestimated Gingrich there, but it isn't natural Romster land - its right-wingers are rural and not affluent moderate suburbanites.

A part of the FN electorate, specifically the hybrid type (type 2-3 hybrid) would be quite favourable to Paul. A conservative-libertarian half-populist candidate like Paul would be a good fit for 'isolated' rural areas in parts of the diagonale du vide where there's a strong anti-elitist and populist sentiment. It's perhaps not all that unlike Coos or Arostook Counties...

I see. Nice experiment anyways, I hope more will follow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fun stuff indeed. Wouldn't Ford sweep France, though ? He's far closer to the standard French rightie than Reagan.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fun stuff indeed. Wouldn't Ford sweep France, though ? He's far closer to the standard French rightie than Reagan.

Again, as I said, I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results.

Reagan seems to be winning this map, though...

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be interesting to see what Jackson's electorate would be, though.  Non-whites + hard-left might be strange bedfellows in France (my impression, which might be wrong, is that among the redder working-class elements in France there's a good deal of anti-immigration and quasi-racist sentiment).

The working class has been flirting with xenophobia and the far-right for decade (and now it's starting to take it to the next step). However, that's not the same as saying the hard-left is anti-immigrant. More like the hard-left doesn't really represent the working class.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very nice maps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I find it very interesting, but I don't have any particular comment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you want a constituency map of the contest? I think it could further show interesting things in departments which are kinda iffy (44, 83, 64) and contrasts between regions of large departments (13, 59, 33, 34).

I'd be pleased to see it, yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Republican 2008.

I'll bore you a bit with the 2008 GOP primaries before publishing 2008 Dem primaries.



Rudy Giuliani is not taken into account.

A note on Corsica: I've just assumed they'd vote for the establishment candidate. It's too hard otherwise.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating map ! Could you comment it a bit for political geography n00bs like me ?

(good to see all the constituencies I've ties with are Obama strongholds, anyways )

[Antonio the Sixth]

Awesome maps.

Could you try a 2012 Bayrou vs Le Pen map ? I've heard about a political fiction book written by Dominique Paillé where those two became the frontrunners. Even though it will never happen I'd like to see what it would look like. Say Bayrou wins, but not in a too lopsided race (60-40 or something like that).