Are German elites secretly maneuvering Europe to political union?

[Beet]

Fascinating bit at the end of a recent NY Times article on Wolfgang Schaeuble:

MR. SCHÄUBLE said the German government would propose treaty changes at the summit of European leaders in Brussels on Dec. 9 that would move Europe closer to the centralized fiscal government that the currency zone has lacked. The ultimate goal, Mr. Schäuble says, is a political union with a European president directly elected by the people.

“What we’re now doing with the fiscal union, what I’m describing here, is a short-term step for the currency,” Mr. Schäuble said. “In a larger context, naturally we need a political union.”

Critics say the spending cuts German leaders have demanded from other countries are hurting growth across the Continent, in the process making debts only harder to repay. And his proposals to give the European Commission far-reaching powers to enforce budgetary discipline have been likened by skeptics in Britain to an invasive new “super state.” Even some euro supporters fear that Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Schäuble are talking about long-term changes while panicked investors and practiced speculators are tearing the euro to pieces right now.

“There is a limited transition period where we have to manage the nervousness on the markets,” Mr. Schäuble said. “If it is clear that by the end of 2012 or the middle of 2013 that we have all the ingredients for new, strengthened and deepened political structures together, I think that will work.”

He sees the turmoil as not an obstacle but a necessity. “We can only achieve a political union if we have a crisis,” Mr. Schäuble said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/world/europe/for-wolfgang-schauble-seeing-opportunity-in-europes-crisis.html?pagewanted=2

Perhaps this is all 11-dimensional chess. They're going to maneuver the continent to a huge crash-- then at the critical moment, not let the crisis go to waste and move into fiscal and political union. Brilliant. A United States of Europe would certainly be a superpower to behold.

[Franzl]

Nothing surprises me from this government anymore.

[ingemann]

"Secretly" what do you think this is; "the Elders of Zion"? No the Germans are quite open about seeking closer integration. In fact it's a important element in why Merkel has gotten a lot of internal criticism in CDU, because she haven't been active enough in seeking close integration as a tool to deal with the crisis.

[Gustaf]

"Secretly" what do you think this is; "the Elders of Zion"? No the Germans are quite open about seeking closer integration. In fact it's a important element in why Merkel has gotten a lot of internal criticism in CDU, because she haven't been active enough in seeking close integration as a tool to deal with the crisis.

It's secret in the sense that when the euro was introduced they didn't say "the idea here is to plunge Europe into economic disaster so we can turn it into a proper federation". Cause then it's unlikely that it would have gone through.

And according to Prodi this is actually what they thought, more or less. Sweden's biggest, very pro-EU, paper reprimanded him for stating it publicly. Ah. euro-lovers. They're a weird bunch.

[ingemann]

"Secretly" what do you think this is; "the Elders of Zion"? No the Germans are quite open about seeking closer integration. In fact it's a important element in why Merkel has gotten a lot of internal criticism in CDU, because she haven't been active enough in seeking close integration as a tool to deal with the crisis.

It's secret in the sense that when the euro was introduced they didn't say "the idea here is to plunge Europe into economic disaster so we can turn it into a proper federation". Cause then it's unlikely that it would have gone through.

And according to Prodi this is actually what they thought, more or less. Sweden's biggest, very pro-EU, paper reprimanded him for stating it publicly. Ah. euro-lovers. They're a weird bunch.

There's a difference between arrange a economical crisis and use a already existing one to reach ones goals.
...and honestly you need to be idiot if you (general you not you personal) think that the economic crisis have been intentional cause by any sitting government (they had no interest in  losing power). And not to be rude and I say this as another small state citizen, I'm rather sure that Prodi don't really care that much about what a Swedish newspaper thinks. EU have never hidden that they seeks an ever closer union, in fact they have written in down from the first treaties and if that come as a shock or surprise to anybody, well I suggest maybe they should read or listen to what have been said for the last 55 years. In fact it's what I find ridiculous about EU opposition and the belief that there's some kind of major EU conspiracy,  EU and EEC has played with open card about wanting a full federation from day one, and if any state disagreed with that they could stay out of or leave EU.

[Beet]

Well no, not technically a secret, but it does introduce a perspective that turns narratives of the crisis on its head. Germany is not against fiscal union; it is for fiscal union. It does not abhor the crisis, it sees it as an opportunity. Suddenly all the incredulous pronouncements about how everything will be fine, the refusal to let the ECB buy bonds, etc. makes sense. The whole thing about Weimar and the German anti-inflation mentality, while containing some truth, is a red herring. The real reason they are doing what they are doing, is to allow the bond markets to give them more power. Already in the space of a couple months France illusions of being European leader or co-leader going back to De Gaulle are shattered. The Germans don't have to lift a finger; they have already built the strongest economy, so the markets do their work for them. It is all quite ingenuous, and, if true, makes these guys worthy of admiration rather than contempt and bewilderment, if only for their scope of vision and sheer chutzpah.

And I have been thinking of euro-bonds all wrong. The point of euro-bonds will not be as an instrument to save the national debts. It's the way around: Euro-bonds are to be an end in themselves, and their very justification lies in the destruction of national debts. For when none of these countries except Germany can borrow, then voila. You have achieved de facto fiscal union, with Germany holding all the power. It's really quite ingenuous. The worse the crisis gets, the more likely fiscal union, and the more domination Germany has over the entire bloc to ram through institutions of its own design for the future Federal State. Of course, they are playing with fire and there is no guarantee they can pull this off, but I can finally feel a better understanding behind Merkel's motivations and it is impressive. I have not felt this way since the final pages of James Clavell's Shogun.

[republicanism]

and if any state disagreed with that they could stay out of or leave EU.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this came on the agenda in some nations in the next decade, at least if the EU continues to work the way it does.

UK and the Scandinavians would of course be the first ones, as they have less to loose than others.

[Politico]

Let's say there is some sort of presidential voting system across Europe. If you setup the system so that the winner is whomever wins the popular vote, and assuming each country never has more than one candidate for president, isn't it safe to bet that the presidential candidate from the nation in Europe with the largest population (i.e., Germany) would almost surely win a presidential election across Europe each and every time? I mean, I find it hard to believe Germans are going to vote for the French candidate and the French are going to vote for the German candidate. This would be quite the absurd experiment to top the Euro. That this sort of thing is even being taken remotely serious just makes me wonder how messed up the EU REALLY is right now, and how bad it is going to get (and what kind of mad politicians will emerge from the ruins)

I guarantee the British would never agree to such nonsense.

[Gustaf]

"Secretly" what do you think this is; "the Elders of Zion"? No the Germans are quite open about seeking closer integration. In fact it's a important element in why Merkel has gotten a lot of internal criticism in CDU, because she haven't been active enough in seeking close integration as a tool to deal with the crisis.

It's secret in the sense that when the euro was introduced they didn't say "the idea here is to plunge Europe into economic disaster so we can turn it into a proper federation". Cause then it's unlikely that it would have gone through.

And according to Prodi this is actually what they thought, more or less. Sweden's biggest, very pro-EU, paper reprimanded him for stating it publicly. Ah. euro-lovers. They're a weird bunch.

There's a difference between arrange a economical crisis and use a already existing one to reach ones goals.
...and honestly you need to be idiot if you (general you not you personal) think that the economic crisis have been intentional cause by any sitting government (they had no interest in  losing power). And not to be rude and I say this as another small state citizen, I'm rather sure that Prodi don't really care that much about what a Swedish newspaper thinks. EU have never hidden that they seeks an ever closer union, in fact they have written in down from the first treaties and if that come as a shock or surprise to anybody, well I suggest maybe they should read or listen to what have been said for the last 55 years. In fact it's what I find ridiculous about EU opposition and the belief that there's some kind of major EU conspiracy,  EU and EEC has played with open card about wanting a full federation from day one, and if any state disagreed with that they could stay out of or leave EU.

The EU bureaucrats aren't losing power over this (if anything, they're gaining power).

You seem to be very much missing the point though.

I'm sure some Eurocrats have been open. But Prodi did not say, back when he supported the euro in the late 90s, that he did so because he thought it would lead to an economic crisis that would in turn prompt common taxation.

When Sweden joined the EU the yes-side argued that joining the EU in no way implied joining the euro. A decade later they said that being in the EU we had to join the euro. However, that, in no way, implied common fiscal policy and even suggesting that was scaremongering populism. And now, all of these people are saying that a common fiscal policy is necessary.

This is how EU integration has worked for a long time. The boundaries are always pushed a little further.

[Beet]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

[Yelnoc]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

How Machiavellian. 

[ingemann]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

At some point you have to decide whether you think they are the Elders of Frankfurt or a bunch of morons who don't get economy as well as you. Or you could lower the hyperbole down to something a little less shrill.
In my opinion they are just between a rock and a hard place. On one side they wish keep the markets from getting a hysterical episode again, but they also have a population who have no wish to pay the Greeks again, especially not after the Greeks pulled the Nazi card. Of course there's also the element that the German doesn't wish to end up in the same situation 20 years into the future, if they had just bought the Greek debt, and they wished even less that a common Eurobond pulled Germany down in the future, because it would allow more state behave like Greece. So they try to make time for Greece to begin its reforms and prayed that the market would find something else to get a hysterical episode about, so the could get room and time to push greater structural changes through and maybe get a little growth going in South Europe.
 

[Beet]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

At some point you have to decide whether you think they are the Elders of Frankfurt or a bunch of morons who don't get economy as well as you. Or you could lower the hyperbole down to something a little less shrill.
In my opinion they are just between a rock and a hard place. On one side they wish keep the markets from getting a hysterical episode again, but they also have a population who have no wish to pay the Greeks again, especially not after the Greeks pulled the Nazi card. Of course there's also the element that the German doesn't wish to end up in the same situation 20 years into the future, if they had just bought the Greek debt, and they wished even less that a common Eurobond pulled Germany down in the future, because it would allow more state behave like Greece. So they try to make time for Greece to begin its reforms and prayed that the market would find something else to get a hysterical episode about, so the could get room and time to push greater structural changes through and maybe get a little growth going in South Europe.

This is no longer about paying the Greeks. In fact it was never about Greece. Screw Greece. The question is France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Belgium, Luxembourg, the whole lot of them. Either Germany wants to be in monetary union or not. Monetary union means some sort of market support -- the sooner the better. Believe it or not, markets do not get 'hysterical', they are rational beings who will put their money where they think they will not lose it. They are between a rock and a hard place? That's terrible. But you know, they are in charge of the fate of 500 million people, so it is natural that they must face tough decisions. That is their job. Merkel and Schauble know this. They are smart. If they are deliberately denying reality in their public statements, refusing to choose either union or breakup, and putting their ostrich head in the hole as the situation continues to worsen then they have some ulterior motive for it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Let's say there is some sort of presidential voting system across Europe. If you setup the system so that the winner is whomever wins the popular vote, and assuming each country never has more than one candidate for president, isn't it safe to bet that the presidential candidate from the nation in Europe with the largest population (i.e., Germany) would almost surely win a presidential election across Europe each and every time? I mean, I find it hard to believe Germans are going to vote for the French candidate and the French are going to vote for the German candidate. This would be quite the absurd experiment to top the Euro. That this sort of thing is even being taken remotely serious just makes me wonder how messed up the EU REALLY is right now, and how bad it is going to get (and what kind of mad politicians will emerge from the ruins)

I guarantee the British would never agree to such nonsense.

Most likely, there would be a EPP and a PES candidate (and maybe a couple of others) and not 27 national ones.

Last time around the European Council didn't pick a German for president, but a EPP member, so that the political majorities of the Council were properly represented. (Of course, Von Rompuy was also picked because he isn't someone who would stand in the way of German/French interests.)

Question is whether a popular election would lead to similar results... with the most "inoffensive" candidate winning.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In fact it's a important element in why Merkel has gotten a lot of internal criticism in CDU, because she haven't been active enough in seeking close integration as a tool to deal with the crisis.

Most criticism from the ranks of the CDU (and FDP) I'm aware of is the one regarding Merkel's support for EFSF and ESM. They think there's too much integration.

SPD and Greens tend to criticize Merkel's opposition to Eurobonds though. Well, Günter Oettinger too now, which is in fact a rare example of Merkel being criticized by a CDUer for not doing enough (rather than doing "too much").

Anything that has to do with the EU seems to be rather unpopular in Germany right now. Public sentiment is that either Greece and Italy should be kicked out or that Germany should withdraw on its own. And the Euro should be scrapped anyway.    Luckily for Merkel, there isn't really a anti-European force in Germany right now. Except for the Left Party maybe, but they are occupied with their own problems (and never-ending infightings). The FDP tried to pull something of an ad hoc anti-Euro campaign in the Berlin state election, which failed miserably because nobody believes the FDP anymore no matter what they say. The FDP's short-lived anti-Euro campaign came across as totally fake and desperate, more than anything else.

[Frodo]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

I don't buy into this conspiracy theory of yours that they created/engineered this crisis, but that they are taking advantage of it to further the integration of the European Union I do not doubt. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

First of all, the idea that Merkel and Schüble deliberately engineered this crisis is highly amusing. These people are far too clueless in order to come up with something sinister like this.

Merkel is usually attacked by the opposition parties for not doing enough and by dissidenters from CDU/FDP for doing way too much. All she tries to do is to stay on the middle ground because that's what kept her in power all these years and she doesn't really have an idea what else to do anyway.

As for Schäuble, he's probably an old-school pro-European-no-matter-what CDU politician. One of the last ones of that generation who's still in public office in fact. Born in 1942, he was raised with idea that only a strong united Europe will prevent another WWI/WWII-type event on the continent. Being more than ten years younger and having grown up in East Germany, Merkel is certainly more pragmatic than that.

[ZuWo]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

This reminds me a bit of a local FDP politician (the Swiss FDP, for the record) who has recently told my father that Merkel is pushing for the "Endsieg" by trying to increase Germany's influence in Europe. Of course, that comment was made in jest and is clearly over the top, but as is the case with such jokes there is often a certain degree of seriousness involved.

[minionofmidas]

First of all, the idea that Merkel and Schüble deliberately engineered this crisis is highly amusing. These people are far too clueless in order to come up with something sinister like this.

Merkel is usually attacked by the opposition parties for not doing enough

and that constantly, and thus constantly having to do whatever she previously ruled out, and thus be largely responsible for the way the crisis goes on and on.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

I didn't know Beet is Jarosław Kaczyński's sock.

[Jacobtm]

It's secret in the sense that when the euro was introduced they didn't say "the idea here is to plunge Europe into economic disaster so we can turn it into a proper federation". Cause then it's unlikely that it would have gone through.

Though any country can opt out of the Euro or the EU at any time, so...

[Beet]

Anyone else want to chime in? I'm increasingly convinced that Schauble and Merkel are deliberately engineering this entire crisis, timed to peak between the end of 2012 and mid-2013, in order to give them maximal leverage over a new EU treaty for fiscal and political union. No one else has a clue what is going on in Berlin.

I didn't know Beet is Jarosław Kaczyński's Radek Sikorski's sock.

Fixed.