The Fateful Flight

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Remember how I was looking to decide a timeline idea? Well, I've chosen something pretty different.
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October 25th, 2002

Eveleth-Virginia Municipal Airport

"Preparing for landing."

This was no ordinary flight; Senator Wellstone was en route to Duluth from here to debate with his challenger, Norm Coleman. The two were locked in a tight race, but the incumbent Democrat was beginning to pull ahead, and he hoped that the debate could solidify his new lead in the polls. Despite icy weather, the landing was safe, and the Wellstone family prepared for the final confrontation before the election in just a week.

MINNESOTA SENATE ELECTION, 2002:

Senator Paul Welstone (D) (inc.)-51%
Mayor Norm Coleman (R)-45%
Others-4%

The Senate, just as it briefly did before Senator Jeffords' switch, was split 50-50. However, it was effectively controlled by the Republicans due to Vice President Cheney's tie-breaking vote. Though Trent Lott was expected to be the incoming Senate Majority Leader, comments made at Senator Thurmond's eulogy led him to resign from his leadership position. Therefore, Tennessee Senator Bill Frist would be the Senate Majority Leader; Daschle would keep his position as leader of the Senate Democrats.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Actually, the title is nice but kind of inaccurate, given that this was just a regular flight.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I know I have a problem with getting bored of my timelines; the problem may be that I think too far ahead instead of focusing on the present (well, in this case 2003-4). I think I've finished a couple short-ish ones that mostly involved 2012 election scenarios.

However, the stuff I did was old news; Humphrey winning in '68, Dean in 2004, etc. Hopefully this is different enough.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Skipping ahead to Iowa; nothing different happens overall except in the Democratic primaries. Dean never gains steam and drops out in support of Wellstone, Clark never runs, and the election is now between Kerry, Wellstone, and Edwards (along with Gephardt, Lieberman, Sharpton, etc)

IOWA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS-2004

Senator Paul Wellstone of Minnesota-33%
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina-26%
Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts-21%
Former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri-16%
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio-2%
Others/Uncommitted-2%

Kerry, who had based his campaign on being the experienced statesman and war hero best equipped to take on Bush, faced a significant defeat in the caucus. He turned his attention to New Hampshire, where he hoped that the favorite son effect plus support from independent voters could hand him a comeback victory.

Though Senator Wellstone won the caucus, some pundits argued that the true victory was John Edwards. Overlooked for much of the campaign, he had lately gained traction (primarily at Gephardt's expense) and finished a solid second in an important caucus state. South Carolina was almost certainly his, and so he focused on pulling off an upset in New Hampshire, though he trailed after Wellstone and Kerry in the Live Free or Die state. Gephardt, who absolutely needed Iowa, dropped out the day after the caucus.

SurveyUSA poll of registered New Hampshire Democrats, January 24th:

Wellstone-28%
Kerry-25%
Edwards-17%
Lieberman-10%
Kucinich-7%
Others-4%
Undecided-9%

If you look closely, I've given away the winner.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

My last sentence was actually talking about New Hampshire in particular, not necessarily the whole country.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY-2004

Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts-34%
Senator Paul Wellstone of Minnesota-31%
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina-18%
Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut-9%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich of Ohio-6%
Others-1%

The upset Kerry win was not only a blow to the Wellstone campaign, but proof of the power of independent voters. Kerry, who had formed an image as the experienced, (comparatively) moderate war hero, and the lack of a Republican candidate attracted independents and even some Republicans to the Primary.

Meanwhile, Lieberman, who almost certainly needed a win in New Hampshire to come back, decided to drop out. Though the frontrunner very early on due to being Gore's running mate in 2000, his support of the Iraq war and perceived moderate to conservative policies on various other issues turned off many Democratic voters. Dropping out after a concession in Concord, Lieberman endorsed Senator Kerry.
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January 30th, 2004

CHENEY DECLINES SECOND TERM AS VP
CITES HEALTH PROBLEMS, BUSH TO SELECT RUNNING MATE "BEFORE THE CONVENTION"

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Wellstone was a liberal democrat, wasn't he??

Yep. Pretty similar to Russ Feingold, actually.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Since February 3rd is Mini-Tuesday, it might be best to just show a map of how it went:

Red=Wellstone
Blue=Kerry
Green=Edwards

There was no clear winner of Mini-Tuesday. Kerry took Delaware and the New Mexico caucus, while Wellstone won Arizona, Missouri, and the North Dakota caucus. Edwards, who won Oklahoma and South Carolina, made his first marks on the map. One could argue that the true winner was Bush; without anyone truly ahead in the Democratic race, he could afford to rest for now. The vetting process alone was enough work, with Cheney himself helping to select his intended successor.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The next update should be ready Saturday.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

THE TICKET: BUSH/THOMPSON '04

By March, Bush had selected his new running mate--former Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson. Like Cheney, he had a long political history and was a major figure in the Watergate investigation. Bush hoped that Thompson would excite conservatives while providing a fearlessly independent mind which Bush hoped would appeal to moderates.


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In the Democratic race, February had still failed to produce a clear frontrunner. Wellstone had won Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho, and Utah. Kerry won Maine, Nevada, DC, and Hawaii, while Edwards won only Tennessee and Virginia. Nationally, the race was between Wellstone and Kerry, with Edwards seemingly failing to expand outside the South.

March 2nd was Super Tuesday. The perceived winner of the night was Wellstone, who won the key states of California and New York over Kerry. Edwards fared the worst, winning only Georgia. Kerry dropped out that night, endorsing his "friend and colleague" Wellstone. Edwards decided to fight on longer, hoping that he could pick up Kerry supporters against the more progressive Wellstone. After losing the Kansas Caucus on March 13th, he too dropped out. After that, Wellstone won every other state except for North Carolina, which voted for favorite son Edwards.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Thoughts on the veep?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

With the Democrats having lined up behind Senator Wellstone, the general election campaign had begun. Wellstone's first task was to select a running mate. The general consensus among his campaign was that he needed a more moderate or at least respected figure to balance the ticket's progressive leader. Though over a dozen names had been suggested, it was eventually trimmed down to a shortlist of five candidates.

GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON OF NEW MEXICO



GENERAL WESLEY CLARK OF ILLINOIS



CONGRESSMAN DICK GEPHARDT OF MISSOURI



GOVERNOR JANET NAPOLITANO OF ARIZONA


GOVERNOR MARK WARNER OF VIRGINIA



The first advertisements of the general election campaign were sent out by Wellstone. Despite the perceived focus of the campaign on Iraq, the 30-second slots attacked President Bush on outsourcing, and were aired in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Michigan. The president responded with ads highlighting the candidates' contrast on abortion, aired in some of the more socially conservative swing states--Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Iowa.

POLLING AVERAGE AS OF APRIL 15th, 2004:

Wellstone: 45%
Bush: 44%

Safe D: 22
Likely D: 112
Lean D: 80
Tossup: 118
Lean R: 38
Likely R: 86
Safe R: 82

Total Wellstone: 214
Total Bush: 206

What worried the Wellstone campaign the most was California. Having gone from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold starting in 1992, those 55 electoral votes were now within Bush's grasp, likely due to the strong military presence in Southern California. Wellstone needed to consolidate his hold on the Golden State, and fast. Though a relative break from the vigorous campaigning for the Democratic nomination, Wellstone would spend the next week in California as well as three battleground states in the Southwest--Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

A. Reading up on him, I've seen both Arkansas and Illinois.
B. It said it was Clark. I'll change it.

EDIT: Aaand changed.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Trust me, I'm not. The conventions will hopefully be done over the weekend.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"I decided that Clark was the perfect balance. He of course had real military experience unlike the chickenhawks. Not only could I attract the swing voter with a principled military man, but I knew that he could step in to be Commander in Chief."
-Paul Wellstone, Decision Points (2014)

The 2004 Democratic National Convention opened on July 26th in ex-candidate Kerry's hometown of Boston. The keynote speech was delivered by Senate candidate Barack Obama of Illinois. Already recognized for his speaking prowess, the up-and-coming state senator wowed the convention with a feel-good speech promoting national unity and opposing the conflict in Iraq.



General Clark was nominated by acclamation and addressed the convention on the second day. He emphasized his military record while criticising "basic, fundamental errors" in the War on Terror and compared the "humanitarian intervention" in Kosovo to the conflict in Iraq. Finally, he vowed to be ready to advise President Wellstone and to be able to step into the role of Commander-in-Chief.



For the top of the ticket, Wellstone was unanimously nominated, delivering his acceptance speech on the final day of the convention. With the Democratic base solidly behind him, the senator used the speech to appeal to moderates and independence with a populist message. True to the name of the DFL, Wellstone chose to spend only a couple minutes on foreign issues to hit Bush on issues of outsourcing while vowing to protect farmers and manufacturers, two key voting blocs in the Midwest.

Though the Democrats recieved a slight poll boost from the convention, it was lower than expected due possibly to the polarized nature of the electorate.

Wellstone 47%
Bush 43%

Total Wellstone: 263
Total Bush: 202

(Yes, the election will end up closer. Next is the RNC)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Remember that this is a timeline; just because I think something would help Wellstone the most doesn't mean I'll do it. Sometimes events in this timeline will hurt Democrats, other times Republicans.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I hope to have something this weekend.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm gonna be honest; I can't write debates or even debate summaries for crap. The GOP convention is pretty much the same as OTL, debates are relatively even (generally, Wellstone wins on economics and Bush on foreign policy). After two convention bumps, the poll numbers settle by November and by election day, Wellstone is ahead in the RCP average by 0.6%.
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With that, Election Night 2004 will definitely be finished.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It's not. I will begin Election Night this weekend.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Brian Williams: We are back at 7:00 on the East Coast, and we have some early projections. We can first give the state of Vermont to Senator Wellstone. 3 electoral votes, no surprise in a staunchly liberal state. Only a few decades ago, Vermont was a Republican stronghold; how things have changed.





Wellstone: 59.6%
Bush: 38.2%

Dan Rather: Meanwhile, we can project three states to the president, none of them unexpected wins. First is Indiana with 11 electoral votes. Though Wellstone was expected to be more competitive in the Midwest, Indiana is staunchly Republican and hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964.



Bush: 57.9%
Wellstone: 40.6%

We can also call the state of Kentucky for President Bush. 8 electoral votes which voted twice for Bill Clinton, but in recent years the state has trended Republican at a national level.

Bush: 58.2%
Wellstone: 40.5%



The final state that can be projected at this time is the state of Georgia. It's gone the opposite way of Vermont, having voted Republican only twice before the 1984 election and only once after it. Bush carries the state once again.



Bush: 56.9%
Wellstone: 42%

President Bush has taken an early lead over Senator Wellstone, with 34 electoral votes in his column to Wellstone's 3. However, 46 states remain undecided, and most of those are still open for polling. If you have not voted already, we urge you to do so.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Off we go. Looks like it'll be close.

Spoiler: It is close. Very close.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The next update will be either tonight or tomorrow; it'll entail the states that were too close/too early to call before 8:00 (SC, NC, OH, WV, FL, VA, NH), as well as several 8:00 calls.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Sorry for the delay. Election Night 2004 continues tomorrow.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Rather: It is 8:00 in New York and polls have closed in most of the Eastern states. We can first make projections in the presidential race.

Maine will go to Senator Wellstone. Historically a Republican state and one of two which never voted for Franklin Roosevelt, it has trended Democratic in recent years. That is 4 electoral votes for Wellstone.

Massachusetts, the home of former candidate John Kerry, will bring 12 more electoral votes into Wellstone's column. No surprises in a historically Democratic state, home of the Kennedys.

Connecticut's 7 electoral votes once again for Wellstone. It's a Democratic state; the Republicans looked at it because it has voted Republican in the past and it was a state heavily affected by the September 11th attacks. However, it remains solidly in the Democratic column.

New Jersey, another suburban state which Bush hoped he could win will also vote for Wellstone and give him 15 more electoral votes. Now, New Jersey has the second highest percentage of Jewish voters in the country. Exit polls are suggesting that Wellstone won nearly 80% of Jews in New Jersey, which is slightly above average for a Democrat. Remember, Wellstone would be our first Jewish president if elected.

Delaware's 3 electoral votes will go to Wellstone. Delaware has historically voted for the winner of every election since 1952 with the exception of 2000, when Gore easily carried the state. This suggests that Delaware is trending towards the Democrats.

Maryland, a strongly Democratic state, will cast its 10 electoral votes for Wellstone. Government employees, African-Americans, and labor mesh together in what may be one of Wellstone's best states.

Illinois's 21 electoral votes will also go to Wellstone. Thanks to Chicago, it's a very Democratic state that will go for Wellstone by a somewhat comfortable margin.

Tennessee's 11 electoral votes will go for President Bush as expected. He beat favorite son Al Gore in the state, and with a more liberal opponent from Minnesota it's no surprise that he appears to have won easily.

Alabama's 9 electoral votes will also go to the President. It hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976, and that streak continues by what looks like a big margin for Bush.

Finally, Oklahoma, 7 electoral votes, will go to the President. Another strongly Republican state just north of Bush's home state of Texas.

Let's bring up the map again. Wellstone has narrowed the gap and is up to 78 electoral votes. President Bush is currently still ahead with 84 projected electoral votes. There are many states which are still too close or too early to call, and many more which are still open. If you live in those states, we urge you to vote if you have not done so already.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

From this point on, county-level results will be included in the final tally.