If Gingrich is the nominee, Democrats should focus 100% on the House and Senate

[Nym90]

The idea that Gingrich can't win is false. Given where his polling is today, President Obama will lose so long as the GOP nominee comes across as reasonable and competent. There is certainly at least a decent chance of Gingrich managing to do that. I agree that he has a lot of vulnerablities that can be exploited, but the idea that he is guaranteed to implode is a dangerous line of thinking for the left in my opinion.

Of course, it's pretty obvious that Romney has a much better chance of coming across as reasonable and competent; the GOP is taking a huge risk by nominating Gingrich over Romney. The right might well argue that the risk is worth taking, but it's quite present nonetheless.

I would estimate Romney's chances of victory at about 65 percent today and Gingrich's at 35 percent if they were nominated.

I doubt that an Obama victory, even a large one over Gingrich, is likely to produce much in the prospect of Democratic gains in Congress.

I think the Senate will go whichever way the Presidential race goes. The GOP is nearly certain to gain seats; they almost certainly will net at least 3 if Obama loses, but are unlikely to get to 4 if he wins.

In the House, Dem gains are likely unless Obama loses by a lot; but it would take a pretty solid landslide to win control of the House.

I would give the GOP a 50 percent chance of taking the Senate, all told, and the Dems a 10 percent chance of winning the House.