New NBC/Marist polls for IA and NH

[Tender Branson]

Iowa:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

43% Approve
46% Disapprove

47-37 Obama/Gingrich
46-39 Obama/Romney
42-42 Obama/Paul
48-37 Obama/Perry
54-31 Obama/Bachmann
50-32 Obama/Cain

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/111204_NBCMarist_Iowa_6a.pdf

New Hampshire:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

43-46 Obama/Romney
49-39 Obama/Gingrich
44-42 Obama/Paul
51-36 Obama/Perry
53-33 Obama/Bachmann
53-30 Obama/Cain

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/111204_NBCMarist_NH_6a.pdf

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Oh my. Is that Ron Paul, the amazing unelectable candidate, tying Obama in a state that's usually lean-safe Democrat (and ahead by a net of 7% of the "electable" candidate selected by the "anyone but Obama" crowd)? Things certainly are getting interesting.

[Eraserhead]

The Obama-Paul numbers in Iowa seem pretty bizarre. Everything else looks fairly reasonable.

[redcommander]

Jesus those are crappy numbers for Obama in New Hampshire.

[argentarius]

Jesus those are crappy numbers for Obama in New Hampshire.

I disagree, to be beating all but Romney is very good for him. It's almost a lost cause if Romney's the nominee.

Great numbers for Paul, I'm delighted. Marist polls used to never favour him.

[memphis]

Jesus those are crappy numbers for Obama in New Hampshire.

Up by 10 points against the current frontrunner? I'll take it.

[Zarn]

The Obama-Paul numbers in Iowa seem pretty bizarre. Everything else looks fairly reasonable.

Iowa has plenty of people against Bush-Obama foreign policy.

[pbrower2a]

Maybe Ron Paul is going to be the new 'flavor of the month'.

[Verily]

Jesus those are crappy numbers for Obama in New Hampshire.

Up by 10 points against the current frontrunner? I'll take it.

And only down by three against someone who's been campaigning there for the better part of a year? Great news for Obama.

[DrScholl]

The Paul numbers are certainly fool's gold for his "fans", 42% is done close to the floor for Republicans in Iowa.

[Skill and Chance]

Iowa appears to be shifting left relative to the nation since 2004, while pretty much everywhere else in the Midwest has moved right.  Any ideas for how to explain this?  Ethanol comes to mind, but that might be too simplistic.

[Associate Justice PiT]

The Paul numbers are certainly fool's gold for his "fans", 42% is done close to the floor for Republicans in Iowa.

     Everyone else is below the floor in that case. Disowned by Iowa?

[Eraserhead]

The Obama-Paul numbers in Iowa seem pretty bizarre. Everything else looks fairly reasonable.

Iowa has plenty of people against Bush-Obama foreign policy.

Hardly anyone is voting based on the candidate's foreign policy stands in this election.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The Obama-Paul numbers in Iowa seem pretty bizarre. Everything else looks fairly reasonable.

They aren't bizarre if you consider the crosstabs from other polls and look at Iowa in terms of Paul's primary numbers.

A very common feature of these general election polls is Paul performing best among Republicans with independents (occasionally beating Obama where the rest fail), but Republicans not falling behind him as solidly as behind Romney (a bit like the "if not Clinton then we aren't voting Obama crowd that was polled to exist during the Democratic primaries"). Here, the Republicans are already okay with Paul, and thus fall behind him. In addition, independents presumably are behind him as well (or, alternatively, they are a larger proportion of the voters in this poll), so it balances out in his favour.

[Zarn]

The Obama-Paul numbers in Iowa seem pretty bizarre. Everything else looks fairly reasonable.

Iowa has plenty of people against Bush-Obama foreign policy.

Hardly anyone is voting based on the candidate's foreign policy stands in this election.

And that would help with the pro-war GOPers that like Paul's economic and fiscal stances. The anti-war people, however, care.

[The Mikado]

I wouldn't get too excited about 42%-42%, Ron Paul fans.  You just know who those 14% undecided are.

[Zarn]

I wouldn't get too excited about 42%-42%, Ron Paul fans.  You just know who those 14% undecided are.

Conservatives who join and become rank-n-file. We know about them.