Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[Beet]

The problem is, NONE of these guys look good under the spotlight. Not a single one of them. In all fairness a huge part of that is the tactical nature of these campaigns where the front-runner is piled on by everyone, but there you go.

[King]

Page 7 looks pretty funny right now.

What I did was multiply Mitt's number today by five, to unaverage it, and Newt's number today, by 5, to unaverage it.

So that's 150 for Mitt and 100 for Newt. Then you subtract yesterday's numbers four times from that, so

150-33-33-33-33 = 18
100-17-17-17-17 = 32

Is that right?

Except yesterday's numbers are also made 20% up of a day you didn't count.

30*6 - 33*5 = 15
20*6 - 17*5 = 35

That seems too dramatic, but with a small daily sample size it wouldn't surprise me.

[Mehmentum]

What I did was multiply Mitt's number today by five, to unaverage it, and Newt's number today, by 5, to unaverage it.

So that's 150 for Mitt and 100 for Newt. Then you subtract yesterday's numbers four times from that, so

150-33-33-33-33 = 18
100-17-17-17-17 = 32

Is that right?

It's right assuming the first day of yesterday's 5 day average is equal to the average of the other 4 days.

[Lief 🗽]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Looks like tmth was right. Romney never did reach 38% and his campaign has collapsed as result.

[Meeker]

Also keep in mind that a sample size of 200 from a single day is going to have a big margin of error.

[You kip if you want to...]

Absolutely no words for this primary.

[Eraserhead]

Hilarious. Tomorrow is going to be fun.

[Insula Dei]

I must express my admiration for the GOP electorate who appearantly have decided that the fact that the primary season is on is no reason to stop the insane volatility of this cycle.

If SC had been on Tuesday or something like that, Mitt now effectively would have the nomination. Just think about that.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

[Volrath50]

Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

I imagine the bump for Romney is from Perry's support scattering, mostly to Gingrich, but also a bit to Romney and Paul.

[Sam Spade]

What appears to have happened is something that I never have seen before in GOP races.  Romney has his 30%, but after the two wins (well now one win), I expected to see the 10%-15% of generic GOPers move towards him, and if he won SC, all of them would be in his camp and the race would be over (given Ron Paul's solid 15%).

At any rate, this was happening, but a day or two before the first SC debate, there was a warning in the daily polling that half of these generics were not warming to him.  Then after, the two SC debates, it appears like that those warming to him, went back into undecided, while at the same time, Gingrich started to coalesce the anti-Romneys.

Which goes back to what I was saying before - Mitt needs to solidly break the 30% barrier before another candidate does, or it will be a long slog.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With a good win tonight, Gingrich could pass Romney nationwide sometime next week. Romney might be able to regain his footing a bit with Florida and Nevada wins, but his inevitability will definitely be gone.

[J. J.]

Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

And it is becoming a two man race.

[Lief 🗽]

Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

[You kip if you want to...]

Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

We still haven't even had any reasonable reading after SC yet

[Volrath50]

Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

We still haven't even had any reasonable reading after SC yet

Yep, and Perry still hasn't been fully phased out. Gingrich is almost certainly going to be on top in a few days.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney's lead has been cut to one point.

Romney 29% (-1)
Gingrich 28% (+3)
Paul 13%
Santorum 11% (-1)
Other 5% (-1)

[Meeker]

[Lief 🗽]

It has finally happened! Praise Jesus!

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)

[Mehmentum]

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)

[Meeker]

[Insula Dei]

It has finally happened! Praise Jesus!

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)

No signs of Mittmentum wearing of. Also, watch Santorum's onda lunga! (well, not really, but I wanted to make that joke)

[You kip if you want to...]

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)

Need to start a thread of just photos of Democrats laughing during the Republican Convention.

[ajc0918]

Need to start a thread of just photos of Democrats laughing during the Republican Convention.

Please do that.

[King]

Take it to tumblr and 4chan, kids.